1. Evaluation of forward looking indicators towards inclusion in regular updates of IMS Anita Pirc Velkavrh EIONET workshop: SEIS Forward and SOER 2010 Part C 14-15 September 2009, Prague, Czech Republic

2. Work so far Review of FL indicators was conducted in 2006 51 forward-looking indicators has been identified and uploaded into IMS (see Catalogue of Forward Looking Indicators from selected sources, Section 1.a – EEA 2008). The selection of these 51 indicators was guided by the following principles: Indicators should correspond to EEA themes; Indicators should cover expanded geographical coverage beyond the EU25/27, i.e. include also Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia (EECCA) and/or South Eastern Europe (SEE); Indicators should be able to complement existing indicators EEA CSI framework.

3. EEA core set of indicatorsForward-looking indicators in IMS Outlooks Air Emissions of acidifying substances (CSI 001)Emissions of acidifying substances outlook from LRTAP Emissions of acidifying substances outlook from WBCSD Emissions of ozone precursors (CSI 002)Emissions of ozone precursors outlook from LRTAP Emissions of ozone precursors outlook from WBCSD Emissions of primary particles (CSI 003)Emissions of primary particles – outlook from LRTAP Emissions of primary particles outlook from WBCSD Biodiversity Species diversity (CSI 009)Change in species diversity as a result of climate change outlook from EEA Climate change a) GHG emissions trends (CSI 010) b) GHG emissions projections(CSI 011) Projections of GHG emissions outlooks from UNFCCC National Communications GHG emissions outlook from IEA GHG emissions outlook from IIASA GHG emissions outlook from WBCSD GHG emissions outlook from MNP GHG emissions outlook from EEA Atmospheric GHG Concentrations (CSI 013)GHG Concentrations outlook from EEA Global and European temperature (CSI 012)Global and European temperature outlook from EEA

4. Terrestrial Land take (CSI 014)Land cover distribution and change outlook from MNP Land cover change, arable land outlook from EEA Waste Municipal waste generation (CSI 016)Municipal waste generation outlooks from UNFCCC National Communications Municipal waste generation outlook from OECD Municipal waste generation outlook from EEA Municipal waste management N/AMunicipal waste management outlook from OECD Generation & recycling of packaging waste (CSI 017)Generation and recycling of packaging waste outlook EEA Water Use of freshwater resources (CSI 018)Use of freshwater resources outlook from EEA Use of freshwater resources outlook from UN SPECA Urban wastewater treatment (CSI 024)Urban wastewater treatment outlook from EEA/ETC Floods and droughts (not in CSI)Floods and droughts outlook from the University of Kassel Agriculture Fertiliser consumption (not in CSI)Fertiliser consumption outlook from FAO Use of fertiliser outlook from EEA Gross nutrient balance (CSI 021)Gross nutrient balance outlook from EEA Gross nutrient balance - outlook from OECD (not in IMS)

5. Energy Final energy consumption (SCI 027)Final energy consumption outlook from IEA Final energy consumption outlook from EEA Total energy intensity (SCI 028)Total energy intensity outlook from IEA Total energy intensity outlook from EEA Primary Energy Consumption by fuel (CSI 029)Total energy consumption outlook from IEA Total energy consumption outlook from EEA Total electricity consumption (not in CSI)Total electricity consumption outlook from IEA Total electricity consumption outlook from EEA Renewable energy consumption (SCI 30)Renewable energy consumption outlook from IEA Renewable energy consumption outlook from EEA Renewable electricity (CSI 031)Renewable electricity outlook from EEA Fuel prices (not in CSI)Fuel prices outlook from IEA Transport Passenger transport demand (CSI 035)Passenger transport demand outlook from WBCSD Passenger transport demand outlook from OECD Passenger transport demand outlook from EEA Freight transport demand (CSI 036)Freight transport demand outlook from WBCSD Freight transport demand outlook from OECD Freight transport demand outlook from EEA Car ownership (not in CSI)Car ownership outlook from WBCSD Use of cleaner and alternative fuels (CSI 037)Use of cleaner and alternative fuels outlook from WBCSD Tourism Tourist arrivals (not in CSI)Tourist arrivals outlook from WTO Socio economic GDP (not in CSI)GDP outlook from OECD Total population (not in CSI)Total population outlook from UNSTAT

6. Aim of the evolution of forward- looking indicators identification and discussion of forward- looking indicators which might be included in regular EEA reporting, – by being complimentary with existing EEA Core Set of Indicators (CSI) – by monitoring important emerging environmental issues and trends not yet captured in regular reporting activities.

7. Evaluation criteria for forward-looking indicators Policy relevance Policy targets Available data Spatial coverage Temporal coverage Geographical resolution Understandability Method transparent Scenario availability Timeliness Documentation Institutional reliability

8. Scoring

9. Example: AIR POLLUTION APE-F01: Emission of acidifying substances –outlook from LRTAP APE-F02: Emission of acidifying substances –outlook from WB CSD APE-F03: Emission of ozone precursors –outlook from LRTAP APE-F01: Emission of ozone precursors –outlook from WBCSD APE-F01: Emission of primary particulates –outlook from LRTAP APE-F01: Emission of primary particulates –outlook from WBCSD

10. Example: AIR POLLUTION

14. Comparative evaluation of APE-F01, APE-F03, APE-F05 and APE-F02, APE-F04, APE-F06