1. 1 Acquiring Human Capital Through the Generations Through Migration James P. Smith Liam Delaney

2. 2 Goal of the Research International migration as a pathway to acquiring Human Capital for succeeding generations Study international migration to the United States from the important European sending countries over the last two centuries –England, Germany, Ireland, Scandinavian countries, Scotland, Italy, and Poland –70% of European migrants to the US between 1850 and 1970

3. 3 Scale of European Migration to the United States Time period Total (000) % European of Total Migrants 1851-18704,91392.0 1871-18908,05887.0 1891-191012,48393.6 1911-19309,84368.9 1931-19501,56361.9 1951-19705,83642.3 1971-199011,83112.7

4. 4 European Sending Countries as % of European Migrants to USA TimeUKIrishGermans Scandi- navian ItaliansPolish All Six as % of Total European 1851-70 22.829.938.53.30.050.0195.1 1871-90 19.315.631.014.15.20.185.0 1891-10 6.86.27.27.523.10.150.9 1911-30 10.05.312.512.923.01.465.1 1931-50 17.73.235.23.813.02.675.5 1951-70 16.93.327.11.616.22.667.7 1971-90 17.73.19.0NA10.89.450.0

5. 5 Sources of Data— What do we need to know Education – Years of Schooling Completed Immigrant Generations – 1 st (immigrants), 2 nd (American born children of immigrants), 3 rd+ (grandchildren of immigrants), etc., etc. Country of Origin or Ethnicity used for 4 th plus or 3 rd plus

6. 6 Sources of Data Decennial Censuses—1940-1970 –Education 1 st asked in 1940 Current Population Surveys (CPS) since 1994 American Community Survey (since 2000) General Social Survey since 1994 –1 st. 2 nd. 3 rd. 4+ generations

7. 7 Defining the Generations 1 st Generation = Country of Birth not in USA but in one of these European countries 2 nd Generation = Born in the USA and a parent born outside the USA and in one of these European countries 3 rd Generation+ = Person and Parents Born in USA but claims an European ethnic heritage from these countries –Or grandparents born in this list of European countries or grandparents born in one of these European countries

8. 8 Data—Possible Sources of Bias Mortality Bias with less educated dying sooner Exaggeration Bias increasing education over time Emigration Bias Childhood Immigrant Bias Length of Generation Bias Cannot eliminate these biases completely, but can mitigate them and access them –Work is continuing on this

9. 9 Example: Education by Migrant Generation by Birth Year—Irish Males

10. 10 Example: Education by Migrant Generation by Birth Year—Irish Males

11. 11 What I do with these numbers? Examine time series education trends for immigrants themselves by country or origin Look at gender differences for each immigrant generation by country Compute generational gains in education from immigration

12. 12 Education by Immigrant Generation by Year of Birth—Males

13. 13 Education by Immigrant Generation by Year of Birth—Females

14. 14 Education by Immigrant Generation by Year of Birth—Males

15. 15 Education by Immigrant Generation by Year of Birth—Females

16. 16 Within Country Heterogeneity- Men

17. 17 Within Country Heterogeneity- Men

18. 18 Within Country Heterogeneity- Women

19. 19 Within Country Heterogeneity- Women

20. 20 What I do with these numbers? Examine time series education trends for immigrants themselves by country or origin Look at gender differences for each immigrant generation by country Compute generational gains in education from immigration

21. 21 Gender Difference in Education by Generation—English Men minus Women

22. 22 Gender Difference in Education by Generation—German Men minus Women

23. 23 Gender Difference in Education by Generation—Italian Men minus Women

24. 24 Gender Difference in Education by Generation—Irish Men minus Women

25. 25 What I do with these numbers? Examine time series education trends for immigrants themselves by country or origin Look at gender differences for each immigrant generation by country Compute generational gains in education from immigration

26. 26 Example: Education by Migrant Generation by Birth Year—Irish Males

27. 27 Education Gain of Second Generation Immigrants—Males

28. 28 Education Gain of Second Generation Immigrants—Males

29. 29 Education Gain of Second Generation Immigrants—Males

30. 30 Education Gain of Second Generation Immigrants—Males

31. 31 Education Gain of Second Generation Immigrants—Males

32. 32 Education Gain of Second Generation Immigrants—Males

33. 33 Education Gain of Second Generation Immigrants—Females

34. 34 Education Gain of Second Generation Immigrants—Females

35. 35 Education Gain of Second Generation Immigrants—Females Gain if Stay

36. 36 Education Gain of Second Generation Immigrants—Females

37. 37 Education Gain of Second Generation Immigrants—Females

38. 38 Education Gain of Second Generation Immigrants—Females

39. 39 What can we say about constant migration selection assumption? No real data for 19 th and early part of 20 th century since European data on mean education by birth cohorts almost non-existent over that period Theory might help about plausible direction of trends For more recent 20 th century birth cohorts there are sources of comparable education data in Europe –This is a work in progress

40. 40 Theory - Basic Selection Model

41. 41 Selection Model—Implications As cost of migration goes up, migrants are more positively selected in education As income differences between US and sending countries contracts (β o ), migrants are more positively selected

42. 42 Income of European Countries Relative to the United States—1870- 2000

43. 43 Income of European Countries Relative to the United States—1920-2000

44. 44 Income of European Countries Relative to the United States

45. 45 Income of European Countries Relative to the United States

46. 46 What happened to selection movers In 19 th century in era of unrestricted migration –migration costs probably fell –Income excess of UK fell but no real trends in other countries until late 19 th century In first part 20 th century incomes rose relative to US In second part of 20 th century, relative incomes of Italy and especially Ireland rose- BUT international European migrants became supply restricted and were largely (75%) family related visas (spouses, siblings, parents)

47. 47 Education Selection by Gender Compute Education levels in European sending countries by birth cohorts using European General Social Survey education Diff- Ed of Migrants – Ed of Stayers by Birth Cohort

48. 48 Male Education by Birth Cohorts in European Sending Countries—Men and Diff between Immigrant and Stayer Education EnglandIrelandGermanyItaly PolandScandinavia Birth YearEuropeDiffEuropeDiffEuropeDiffEuropeDiffEuropeDiffEuropeDiff 1921-1925 10.802.58 10.510.9012.010.348.131.458.092.599.423.10 1926-1930 11.132.57 10.831.0712.12-0.427.331.999.201.8710.272.73 1931-1935 12.012.20 10.501.8312.320.288.520.539.182.7810.163.21 1936-1940 12.552.16 11.581.0612.730.538.541.0910.182.5011.192.74 1941-1945 12.252.35 11.931.2913.54-0.379.900.7210.592.5612.082.62 1946-1950 13.021.71 11.832.1513.99-0.1610.212.0011.582.3512.642.46 1951-1955 13.590.95 12.461.6913.950.0212.240.2711.612.0613.281.85 1956-1960 14.010.39 13.280.8214.07-0.2011.371.8112.121.5413.551.62 1961-1965 13.770.55 13.630.3514.34-0.4711.731.7512.551.0313.751.49 1966- 1970 13.780.96 13.820.5214.35-0.2012.901.1512.830.7714.071.54 1971-1975 14.340.37 14.60-0.2514.53-0.1513.280.9213.410.4114.570.81 1976-1980 14.480.04 14.82-0.7514.81-0.5513.390.9913.370.5114.570.74

49. 49 Female Education by Birth Cohorts in European Sending Countries—Women and Diff between Immigrant and Stayer Education EnglandIrelandGermanyItaly PolandScandinavia Birth YearEuropeDiff EuropeDiff Europ e DiffEuropeDiffEuropeDiffEuropeDiff 1921-1925 10.711.1610.27 1.2210.011.905.213.617.002.768.99 2.95 1926-1930 10.741.3610.96 0.6810.271.676.851.667.102.898.81 3.63 1931-1935 11.30 1.30 10.86 1.0810.541.497.710.318.712.309.62 3.15 1936-1940 11.81 1.00 11.57 0.6811.401.087.890.599.192.7010.76 2.76 1941-1945 12.39 0.76 11.83 0.7512.040.878.471.189.962.5111.59 2.25 1946-1950 13.00 0.57 12.26 0.9912.640.909.271.8810.772.6012.57 1.56 1951-1955 12.97 0.94 13.32 0.6913.330.909.992.1011.802.8113.54 0.88 1956-1960 13.62 1.35 13.47 0.5613.490.3611.311.8012.641.0414.19 0.41 1961-1965 13.75 0.29 13.83 0.2013.810.0211.961.5312.870.8814.37 0.47 1966- 1970 13.89 0.62 14.49-0.1814.000.2211.792.2913.310.7314.93 0.24 1971-1975 14.47 0.16 14.55 0.0213.910.3112.891.5613.780.3415.16 0.10 1976-1980 14.28 0.71 14.94-0.2014.150.1513.791.0814.210.5015.01-0.23

50. 50 Conclusions Large heterogeneity within and across countries in European migrants to the USA Measuring Human Capital gains through international migration across generations requires knowing what was happening in sending and receiving countries In the European context, these gains are particularly large among Polish and Italian migrants