2. BRIEFING ON HORN OF AFRICA Presentation by the Chief Directorate East Africa Amb LM Makhubela Chief Director East Africa 18 OCTOBER 2006

3. Horn of Africa CountryGDP(2005)GDP Growth DjiboutiUS$708.3m3.2% EritreaUS$1.003.2m2.0% EthiopiaUS$9.810.8m8.9% SomaliaOfficial statistics unavailable The SudanUS$29.6bn8.0%

4. Horn of Africa CountryPopulationPopulation (2005)Growth Djibouti7 2004.4% Eritrea4.4 m3.0% Ethiopia77.9 m2.3 Somalia11.3 mNot available The Sudan36.2 m1.9%

5. Characteristics of the Horn of Africa Region Conflict-stricken region (with the exception of Djibouti) Post-conflict reconstruction and development On-going peace talks (with the exception of Djibouti) Emerging democracies in Djibouti and Ethiopia Fledging economies High levels of poverty High degree of donor dependency

6. LEVELS OF ENGAGEMENT WITH THE REGION There are two levels of engagement with the region, namely: -Peace, security, stability and democracy -Socio-economic co-operation and development

7. The Sudan Recent Developments North-South (Implementation of CPA) –Slow progress: 1.North-South Boundaries, 2.Recommendations of Abyei Boundaries Commission, 3.Security Arrangements, 4.Wealth – sharing (oil revenue sharing) Challenges –Widening gap and confidence between NCP and SPLM/A –NCP lacks political will –SPLM/A lacks capacity and political will –Cessation threat –Implementation to be affected by the negative political climate in the country + GoS stance on Darfur –Non-engagements by other Sudan political parties

8. The Sudan (cont…) Recent Developments Darfur –Deterioration of security and humanitarian situation (banditry, attacks against civilians + IDPs, hijack of humanitarian convoys) –Slow implementation of DPA –DPA divisive mechanism -- signatories vs non-signatories –GoS refuse re-hatting of AMIS –Militarisation of IDPs Challenges –Non-signatories to DPA –Divisions among non-signatories to DPA –Re-hatting of AMIS –Offensive by GoS against non-signatories

9. The Sudan (cont…) Recent Developments Eastern Sudan –Signing of wealth sharing and security arrangements protocols –Power sharing protocol to be signed Challenges –Negotiations on Implementation Mechanism of peace agreement

10. The Sudan (cont…) South Africa’s Involvement Implementation of the Capacity and Institution Building Project (7 training programmes implemented, current training on Justice System) JBC Contributed military and civilian police personnel to AMIS in Darfur SA supports re-hatting of AMIS Development of a strategic framework for SA’s assistance to CPA protagonists Chair of AU Committee on Post-conflict Reconstruction and Development on Sudan

11. Somalia Recent Developments –Success of second round of Khartoum peace talks –Assassination attempt against President Yusuf –Ethiopian troops took control of Bur Hagaba town –UIC took control of Kismayo port, Jowher and Balad towns –UIC declared Jihad against Ethiopia –AU decision to deploy troops in Somalia (IGASOM) –Request by Somali Prime Minister for partial lifting of arms embargo Challenges –Conflict between TFG and UIC –Ethiopian and alleged Eritrean involvement –Development of National Reconciliation Strategy

12. Somalia South Africa’s Involvement Interaction with Parties to the conflict in Somalia Interaction with other role-players Provide advise on developments Support AU decisions on Somalia

13. Ethiopia and Eritrea Border Dispute Recent Developments Military situation in the Temporary Security Zone (TSZ) is stable but tense Continued training and maintenance activities by both Eritrea and Ethiopia in areas adjacent the TSZ Restrictions on UN Mission by Eritrea Detention of UN Mission’ LRPs and Volunteers by Eritrea UNMEE completed its reconfiguration plan (in compliance with UN Security Council Resolution 1681 (2006)) Opening and staffing of the Boundaries Commission’s Field Office in Addis Ababa Restrictions on diplomats by Eritrea Growing political intolerance by Eritrea

14. Ethiopia and Eritrea Border Dispute Challenges Impasse on the implementation of the Boundaries Commission’s decision Refusal to attend meetings by Eritrea Restrictions on UNMEE impede Mission’s ability to effectively monitor the TSZ Defection by Ethiopian military personnel

15. Ethiopia and Eritrea South Africa’s Involvement JMC with Ethiopia Contribution of troops to UNMEE Minister is the President’s Special Envoy on Ethiopia-Eritrea Border Dispute Application for Humanitarian assistance for flood victims in Ethiopia

16. Djibouti Recent Developments Official visit to Djibouti by Business Unit Engaged with counterparts to increase diplomatic interaction Initiated the process of finalising a general co-operation agreement with Djibouti Challenges Establish regular consultation and exchange of visits