1. The HAZUS Hurricane Model and Its Use in Mitigation National Hurricane Conference Orlando, April 2002

2. Program Outline Barbara Schauer, National Institute of Building Sciences, Moderator HAZUS Program Overview: Ed Laatsch, Federal Emergency Management Agency,HAZUS Program Overview: Ed Laatsch, Federal Emergency Management Agency, Wind Committee Technical Oversight Role :Wind Committee Technical Oversight Role : Joe Minor, Chairman, University of Missouri – Rolla, Wind Model Methodology Overview:Wind Model Methodology Overview: Peter Vickery, Applied Research Associates, Inc. Wind Model Software Demonstration:Wind Model Software Demonstration: Frank Lavelle, Applied Research Associates, Inc.

3. Overview of the HAZUS Multihazard Loss Estimation Program Ed Laatsch, FEMA Mitigation Directorate Washington, D.C.

4. Vision To Reduce the Loss of Life and Property and Protect Institutions from Natural Hazards by Leading and Supporting the Nation in a Comprehensive, Risk-based, Emergency Management Program of Mitigation, Preparedness, Response, and Recovery.

5. Loss Estimation Calculation of damage and economic loss to buildings and infrastructure.Calculation of damage and economic loss to buildings and infrastructure. Includes determining casualties, shelter requirements and indirect economic loss.Includes determining casualties, shelter requirements and indirect economic loss.

6. Program Accomplishments and Objectives Developed versions of an earthquake loss estimation program called “HAZUS” in 1997, 1999 and 2000.Developed versions of an earthquake loss estimation program called “HAZUS” in 1997, 1999 and 2000. Developing HAZUS Multi-Hazard to include loss estimation for hurricane, flood and earthquake hazards.Developing HAZUS Multi-Hazard to include loss estimation for hurricane, flood and earthquake hazards. HAZUS is PC/GIS based software program available from FEMA.HAZUS is PC/GIS based software program available from FEMA.

7. HAZUS Major HAZUS consortiums in San Francisco, Los Angeles and New York.Major HAZUS consortiums in San Francisco, Los Angeles and New York. Over 1,500 copies distributed to federal agencies, local emergency managers, fire departments, universities and others.Over 1,500 copies distributed to federal agencies, local emergency managers, fire departments, universities and others. Considerable international interest.Considerable international interest.

8. HAZUS HAZUS is used for FEMA’s first estimate of losses following an earthquake.HAZUS is used for FEMA’s first estimate of losses following an earthquake. Information used in support of response and recovery operations.Information used in support of response and recovery operations. Utilized in the Seattle Earthquake.Utilized in the Seattle Earthquake.

9. Multihazard HAZUS Preview Hurricane and Flood Models to be released with HAZUS in 2002.Preview Hurricane and Flood Models to be released with HAZUS in 2002. Hurricane Model development will continue to 2004/5.Hurricane Model development will continue to 2004/5. Other wind hazard models - thunderstorm, hail, tornado – to be developed for future releases.Other wind hazard models - thunderstorm, hail, tornado – to be developed for future releases.

10. Funding by FEMA.Funding by FEMA. Management by the National Institute of Building Sciences.Management by the National Institute of Building Sciences. Technical oversight by Expert Committees.Technical oversight by Expert Committees. Technical development and testing by Specialized Consultants.Technical development and testing by Specialized Consultants. User involvement throughout development.User involvement throughout development. Project Team

11. Technical Oversight Committees for wind (7), flood (12), earthquake (9) and software (7).Committees for wind (7), flood (12), earthquake (9) and software (7). Committee members selected for their national expertise and user interests.Committee members selected for their national expertise and user interests. FEMA oversight for program coordination.FEMA oversight for program coordination.

12. Developers Hurricane: Applied Research AssociatesHurricane: Applied Research Associates Flood: ABS ConsultingFlood: ABS Consulting Earthquake Software: Durham TechnologiesEarthquake Software: Durham Technologies Earthquake Methodology: Charles Kircher Associates, Comartin-ReisEarthquake Methodology: Charles Kircher Associates, Comartin-Reis Developers selected based on qualification-based competitive processesDevelopers selected based on qualification-based competitive processes

13. HAZUS Methodology Flowchart Vulnerability InventoryHazard Input Loss Estimates Damage v Direct Physical v Induced v Social v Direct Economic v Indirect Economic Validation / Calibration Output

14. Potential HAZUS Applications MitigationMitigation - Study alternatives - Future land use planning Regional Emergency Management -Post-disaster damage assessment and ground- truthing - Post-disaster damage assessment and ground- truthing -Response planning - Response planning - Risk Assessment for buildings and infrastructure Recovery Planning - Recovery action planning - Long-term economic recovery planning

15. Strategic Planning HAZUS Quick Situation Assessment Response & Recovery Operational Response Planning Operational Response Planning Mitigation Strategies Building Code Administration Future Land Use Planning Performance Measures Planning and Exercise Scenarios Awareness & Preparedness Criteria for Sustainable Communities

16. Mitigation Strategies Simulating Long Term Effects (i.e., Future Disasters)Simulating Long Term Effects (i.e., Future Disasters) Study the Cost Impact of Alternative Mitigation StrategiesStudy the Cost Impact of Alternative Mitigation Strategies Examples:Examples: –Regulating, Strengthening, or Removing Unsafe Structures –Establishing Safer Sites for Waste Disposal –Improving Land Use Planning

17. Readiness, Response and Recovery Use of HAZUS Results to Support USACE Mission Assignments:Use of HAZUS Results to Support USACE Mission Assignments: –Temporary Housing –Debris Removal –Emergency Water –Emergency Power –Dam Inspection –Emergency Route Clearance Readiness & Response ExercisesReadiness & Response Exercises

18. Technical Oversight Role of the HAZUS Wind Committee Joe Minor Wind Committee Chairman

19. Members Arthur Chiu Doug Smits Mark Powell Robert McComb Kishor Mehta Joseph Minor Masoud Zadeh Dale C. Perry Richard D. Marshall

20. Committee Operation Empowered to review and approve approach, technical content, and procedures Directly influenced model concept, methodology, documentation, and results

21. Committee Contributions Selection of SOTA model componentsSelection of SOTA model components Approach to wind-damage algorithmsApproach to wind-damage algorithms Delineation of vulnerability relationshipsDelineation of vulnerability relationships Building classification systemBuilding classification system Validation of components and ‘end-to- end’Validation of components and ‘end-to- end’

22. Insurance Models HURRICANE BUILDING INVENTORY Velocity vs. $ INSURED LOSS “Black Box”

23. HAZUS Wind Model HURRICANE BUILDING INVENTORY Velocity vs. Damage HISTORICAL LOSS DATA Cost of Physical Damage Physical Damage VALIDATE Documented

24. Overview of HAZUS Wind Loss Estimation Methodology Peter Vickery Applied Research Associates, Inc. Raleigh, NC

25. Overview Brief Discussion of the Approach Used to develop the HAZUS wind loss methodologyBrief Discussion of the Approach Used to develop the HAZUS wind loss methodology Example Effect of Mitigation on Reduction in Average Annual LossesExample Effect of Mitigation on Reduction in Average Annual Losses Presentation of the HAZUS PrototypePresentation of the HAZUS Prototype

26. HAZUS Wind Hazard-Load- Damage-Loss Framework 1. Extreme Wind Hazards Extratropical Cyclones 2. Structural Load/Response Models Wind Loading Effects Missiles Pressure Atmospheric Pressure Change Structural Response Model ThunderstormsHurricanes Tornadoes Envelope Frame 3. Structure/Physical Damage InteriorContents 4. Risk Assessment and Loss Analysis Vulnerable Components Mitigation/RetrofitLoss Analysis BuildingsFacilitiesSystemsBuilding Classes

27. Individual Risk Formulation Methodology Windspeed $ Hazard Validate Wind Loads Validate Resistances Validate Hazard + Loads + Resistances = External Damage Exterior Physical Damage Validate $ LossesValidate Interior/Contents Physical Damage Validate

28. Wind Loss EstimationApproach Wind Loss Estimation Approach Approach has focused on developing wind loss analysis methods for individual buildings as the foundation for building classification and loss studies.Approach has focused on developing wind loss analysis methods for individual buildings as the foundation for building classification and loss studies. The individual building loss methodology has been applied to commercial, residential, and high potential loss facilities.The individual building loss methodology has been applied to commercial, residential, and high potential loss facilities. Extensive validation has been performed and is continuing against multiple databases.Extensive validation has been performed and is continuing against multiple databases. Individual building analysis provides a standardized method to address mitigation and building code issues, and to develop damage functions for each building class.Individual building analysis provides a standardized method to address mitigation and building code issues, and to develop damage functions for each building class. Individual building risk/loss analysis is the foundation of the HAZUS wind engineering-based loss Individual building risk/loss analysis is the foundation of the HAZUS wind engineering-based loss analysis methodology Individual Building Risk/Loss Step 4. Step 3. Step 2. Step 1. Building Stock Surveys, Databases, and/or User Specific Inputs Building/Facility Wind Classification System Regional Portfolio Loss Analysis

29. Damage Modeling Methodology

30. Mitigation Because HAZUS uses a load and resistance approach to estimate damage and the ensuing loss it is able to model the effects of mitigationBecause HAZUS uses a load and resistance approach to estimate damage and the ensuing loss it is able to model the effects of mitigation Preview model will allow for mitigation to be applied to single family residential buildings.Preview model will allow for mitigation to be applied to single family residential buildings. Mitigation methods include:Mitigation methods include: –Addition of hurricane straps –Application of window protection (shutters, laminated glass) –Effects of re-nailing roof sheathing on damage/loss –Application of secondary water protection –Combinations of the above

31. Single Family Residential Buildings Building Characteristics:Building Characteristics: –(1) Roof Shape:Hip vs. Gable –(2) Roof Wall Connections:Strap vs. Toe Nail –(3) Roof Sheathing Attachment:6d vs. 8d –(4) Number of Stories:One vs Two –(5) Effect of Garage DoorNone, 10 psf, 20 psf –(6) Wall Construction: Wood/URM/RM Total Number of Potential Classes is:Total Number of Potential Classes is: –2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 3 x 3 = 144 Total Number of Basic Single Family Building TypesTotal Number of Basic Single Family Building Types –144 x (3 Quality Factors) = 432

32. Single Family Residential Mitigation Studies Building Damage States vs. Wind Speed Developed varying the followingBuilding Damage States vs. Wind Speed Developed varying the following –(1) Add Shutters –(2) Re Nail Roof at 6” OC Throughout and Upgrade Shingles –(3) Upgrade Roof (# 2 Above) and Add Shutters (#1 Above) Total Number of Mitigation Cases:Total Number of Mitigation Cases: –96x3 = 288 Total Number of ALL Residential Buildings (Mitigated and As Built)Total Number of ALL Residential Buildings (Mitigated and As Built) –288 + 432 = 720

33. Effect of Building Parameters on Damage State Toe Nail to Strap5% to 30% IncreaseToe Nail to Strap5% to 30% Increase Hip to Gable 15% to 25% IncreaseHip to Gable 15% to 25% Increase One Story to Two Story40% to 70% IncreaseOne Story to Two Story40% to 70% Increase 6d Sheathing Nails to 8d Sheathing Nails0 - 15%Increase6d Sheathing Nails to 8d Sheathing Nails0 - 15%Increase URM vs. Wood~0URM vs. Wood~0 RM vs. URM~0RM vs. URM~0 No Garage to 20 psf Garage ~0No Garage to 20 psf Garage ~0 No Garage to 10 psf Garage ~0-25% IncreaseNo Garage to 10 psf Garage ~0-25% Increase Shutters6% to 22% DecreaseShutters6% to 22% Decrease Upgrade roof deck/cover17% to 44% decreaseUpgrade roof deck/cover17% to 44% decrease Shutters and Roof30% to 60% DecreaseShutters and Roof30% to 60% Decrease Effect of any one parameter on the building damage is coupled with changes in other parameters.Effect of any one parameter on the building damage is coupled with changes in other parameters. Wall Construction Does not Impact Average Building Damage States. Information will only be needed for casualty estimates.Wall Construction Does not Impact Average Building Damage States. Information will only be needed for casualty estimates.

34. Effect of Mitigation on Average Annual Losses (Valid in South Florida) Addition of ShuttersAddition of Shutters –10% to 30% Reduction in AAL Upgrade Roof Sheathing and Roof CoverUpgrade Roof Sheathing and Roof Cover –7% to 50% Reduction in AAL Add Shutters, Upgrade Roof Sheathing and Roof CoverAdd Shutters, Upgrade Roof Sheathing and Roof Cover –35% to 65% Reduction in AAL Add Shutters, Upgrade Roof Sheathing and Roof Cover, add Secondary WaterProtectionAdd Shutters, Upgrade Roof Sheathing and Roof Cover, add Secondary Water Protection –40% to 80% Reduction in AAL