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Social attitude toward sustainable development in 2025: a case for reinforcing scenario design Authors: José Miguel Fernández Güell Leticia Redondo Gómez.

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Presentation on theme: "Social attitude toward sustainable development in 2025: a case for reinforcing scenario design Authors: José Miguel Fernández Güell Leticia Redondo Gómez."— Presentation transcript:

1 Social attitude toward sustainable development in 2025: a case for reinforcing scenario design Authors: José Miguel Fernández Güell Leticia Redondo Gómez Institution: Universidad Politécnica de Madrid The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) 12 & 13 May 2011

2 Social attitude toward sustainable development in 2025: a case for reinforcing scenario design Convenience for undertaking territorial foresight Why urban planners do not think anymore in visionary terms? Le Courbusier´s vision in the 1930s

3 Social attitude toward sustainable development in 2025: a case for reinforcing scenario design Convenience for undertaking territorial foresight Elements of territorial foresight

4 How to reconcile territorial foresight and urban planning Social attitude toward sustainable development in 2025: a case for reinforcing scenario design Linking foresight and urban planning

5 Social attitude toward sustainable development in 2025: a case for reinforcing scenario design Linking foresight and urban planning Formulation of future visions Strategy Formulation Strategy Formulation Spatial Implications Spatial Implications Parametric Implications Parametric Implications Functional Implications Functional Implications Future Visions Future Visions

6 A practical application of future studies Scenario design methodology Social attitude toward sustainable development in 2025: a case for reinforcing scenario design Determination of scenarios implications on development models Determination of scenarios implications on development models Design of future scenarios about the evolution of sustainable development Design of future scenarios about the evolution of sustainable development Analysis of change trends which may affect sustainable development Analysis of change trends which may affect sustainable development Characterisation of the sustainable development concept Characterisation of the sustainable development concept Participation, communication and feedback Step IStep IIStep IIIStep IV

7 A practical application of future studies Future scenarios for sustainable development Social attitude toward sustainable development in 2025: a case for reinforcing scenario design

8 Linking foresight and urban planning Determining functional implications Strategy Formulation Strategy Formulation Spatial Implications Spatial Implications Parametric Implications Parametric Implications Functional Implications Functional Implications Future Visions Future Visions

9 Determining functional implications Urban planning conceptual framework Social attitude toward sustainable development in 2025: a case for reinforcing scenario design

10 Scenario A Green Paradigm (2025) Social attitude toward sustainable development in 2025: a case for reinforcing scenario design Determining functional implications

11 Scenario B Predator Development (2025) Social attitude toward sustainable development in 2025: a case for reinforcing scenario design Determining functional implications

12 Scenario C Back to Basics (2025) Social attitude toward sustainable development in 2025: a case for reinforcing scenario design Determining functional implications

13 Social attitude toward sustainable development in 2025: a case for reinforcing scenario design Linking foresight and urban planning Determining parametric implications Strategy Formulation Strategy Formulation Spatial Implications Spatial Implications Parametric Implications Parametric Implications Functional Implications Functional Implications Future Visions Future Visions

14 Main scenarios indicators Social attitude toward sustainable development in 2025: a case for reinforcing scenario design Determining parametric implications

15 Social attitude toward sustainable development in 2025: a case for reinforcing scenario design Linking foresight and urban planning Determining spatial implications Strategy Formulation Strategy Formulation Spatial Implications Spatial Implications Parametric Implications Parametric Implications Functional Implications Functional Implications Future Visions Future Visions

16 Social attitude toward sustainable development in 2025: a case for reinforcing scenario design Madrid Hoya de Villalba Cercedilla Navacerrada Becerril de la Sierra El Boalo Determining spatial implications Location of study area (Hoya de Villalba)

17 Current spatial scenario (2010) Social attitude toward sustainable development in 2025: a case for reinforcing scenario design Determining spatial implications

18 Scenario A Green Paradigm (2025) Social attitude toward sustainable development in 2025: a case for reinforcing scenario design Determining spatial implications

19 Scenario B Predator Development (2025) Social attitude toward sustainable development in 2025: a case for reinforcing scenario design Determining spatial implications

20 Scenario C Back to Basics (2025) Social attitude toward sustainable development in 2025: a case for reinforcing scenario design Determining spatial implications

21 Social attitude toward sustainable development in 2025: a case for reinforcing scenario design Current spatial scenario (2010)Scenario A Green Paradigm (2025) Scenario B Predator Development (2025)Scenario C Back to Basics (2025) Scenarios mosaic Determining spatial implications

22 Social attitude toward sustainable development in 2025: a case for reinforcing scenario design Linking foresight and urban planning Strategy formulation Strategy Formulation Strategy Formulation Spatial Implications Spatial Implications Parametric Implications Parametric Implications Functional Implications Functional Implications Future Visions Future Visions

23 Main findings Social attitude toward sustainable development in 2025: a case for reinforcing scenario design IMPROVEMENT OR URBAN DEVELOPMENT POLICIES AND MODELS More integrated, participatory and coordinated development Incorporation of breakthrough innovations Transformation of the legal framework and governance model Implementation of broad territorial plans Involvement of all public administrations REINFORCEMENT OF QUALITATIVE FORESIGHT TOOLS Scenario design is user- friendly for regional and local decision makers Foresight may be welcomed by strategic and physical planners Combine quantitative and qualitative analysis Foresight can improve a territorys governance

24 Thank you for your attention! josemiguel.fernandez@upm.es Social attitude toward sustainable development in 2025: a case for reinforcing scenario design

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