1. 1 Norfolk Federation of Women’s Institutes Carbon Challenge Day February 23 rd 2008 Our Carbon Challenge N.K. Tovey ( 杜伟贤 ) M.A, PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Н.К.Тови М.А., д-р технических наук Energy Science Director CRed Project HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal 5 th October 2007 1

2. 2 The Carbon Challenge The background of the problem How does the UK compare with other countries How do we tackle the challenge Conclusions 2

3. 33 Changes in Temperature and Carbon Dioxide

4. 44 Total winter precipitation Total summer precipitation Source: Tim Osborne, CRU Change in precipitation 1961-2001 Increasing Occurrence of DroughtIncreasing Occurrence of Flood

5. 5 (Source: Prof. Bill McGuire, University College London) Norwich Consequence of ~ 1m rise Consequence of ~ 6m rise Norwich City would be playing water polo!

6. 6 Last Ice Age Humans are ‘forcing’ the system in a new way. CO 2 increases are mainly due to fossil fuel burning. CO 2 has not been this high in more than half a million years. Last Interglacial Ice ages are not random. They are 'forced' (by earth’s orbital clock…. changes in the sunlight received). 350 300 250 200 Carbon Dioxide (ppmv) 6005004003002001000 Thousands of Years Before Present [Adapted from Figure 6.3, ©IPCC 2007: WG1-AR4] 1800 today 6 Long Term Carbon Dioxide Record

7. 7 Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise ( o C) actual predicted Is Global Warming man made? Prediction: Anthropogenic only Not a good match between 1920 and 1970 Predictions include: Greenhouse Gas emissions Sulphates and ozone Solar and volcanic activity 7

8. 8 Is Global Warming man made? Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office Prediction: Natural only good match until 1960 Predictions include: Greenhouse Gas emissions Sulphates and ozone Solar and volcanic activity 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise ( o C) 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise ( o C) actual predicted 8

9. 9 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise ( o C) actual predicted Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office Prediction: Natural and Anthropogenic Generally a good match Predictions include: Greenhouse Gas emissions Sulphates and ozone Solar and volcanic activity Is Global Warming man made? 9

10. Human and Natural Causes of Climate Change Carbon dioxide is causing the bulk of the forcing. © IPCC: WG1-AR4

11. 11 1979 2003 Climate Change: Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003 Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region NASA satellite imagery الصيف الجليد في القطب الشمالي تغطية المنطقة القطبيه ناسا الصور الفضاءيه Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.htmlhttp://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html 20% reduction in 24 years 20 ٪ تخفيض في 24 سنوات تغير المناخ اثار على الجليديه القطبيه كاب 1979 - 2003 11

12. 12 The Carbon Challenge The background of the problem How does the UK compare with other countries – Should we adopt the notion of contraction and convergence - All people have an equal allowance of carbon emission by end of century? Reduction in developed world allowing small increase in developing world to raise their standards of living. How do we tackle the challenge Conclusions 12

13. 13 Each person in UK emits ~ 9 tonnes of carbon dioxide each year. How does this compare with other countries? Our Carbon Challenge

14. 14 Why has France a much lower carbon emission per capita than UK? Why has Germany and the Netherlands a higher factor? How carbon friendly is the Energy we use? Carbon emission factors: – Direct use of fuels: natural gas ~ 0.188 kg/kWh (varies slightly) oil (depending on grade) ~ 0.25 kg/kWh coal (depending on grade) ~ 0.30 kg/kWh – Electricity (including losses in transmission): Coal Generation ~ 1000 g / kWH Oil Generation ~ 900 g / kWH Gas Generation ~ 400 g / kWh Nuclear Generation ~ 5 – 10 g / kWH

15. 15 How carbon friendly is the Energy we use?

16. 16 How carbon friendly is the Energy we use? Luxembourg UK

17. 17 How carbon friendly is the Energy we use? Why is there such a difference between one country and another?

18. 18 How carbon friendly is the way we generate our wealth? It is graphs like this that President Bush uses to justify his stance – he is thinking in terms of carbon intensity – not total carbon emissions.

19. 19 The Carbon Challenge The background of the problem How does the UK compare with other countries How do we tackle the challenge – Reduce Energy Use Energy Efficiency vs Energy Conservation Technical Solutions Awareness Raising – Promote renewable Energy technologies – Carbon Footing Issues – to check how we are getting on Conclusions 19

20. 20 The Carbon Challenge – Reduce Energy Use Energy Efficiency vs Energy Conservation Technical Solutions – Improved insulation – Energy Efficient Appliances – Low Energy Lighting – More advanced technical solutions Awareness Raising 20

21. 21 Diagram illustrates situation with coal, oil, or nuclear Gas Generation is more efficient - overall ~ 45% Use Electricity wisely where we have a choice Overall efficiency ~ 35% Largest loss in Power Station Ways to Respond to the Challenge: Technical Issues Electricity Generation

22. 22 Overall Efficiency - 73% Heat is rejected at ~ 90 o C for supply to heat buildings. City Wide schemes are common in parts of Europe Ways to Respond to the Challenge: Technical Issues Combined Heat and Power

23. 23 Pipes being laid in streets in Copenhagen Most towns in Denmark have city wide schemes such as these Ways to Respond to the Challenge: Technical Issues Combined Heat and Power

24. 24 Micro CHP Ways to Respond to the Challenge: Technical Solutions 24 Micro CHP plant for homes are being trialled. They replace the normal boiler But there is a problem in summer as there is limited demand for heat. Backup generation is still needed unless integrated with solar photovoltaic?

25. 25 Throttle Valve Condenser Heat supplied to house Evaporator Heat extracted from outside Low Temperature Low Pressure High Temperature High Pressure Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions The Heat Pump Any low grade source of heat may be used Typically coils buried in garden Bore holes Example of roof solar panel (Look East: Tuesday) Compressor A heat pump delivers 3, 4, or even 5 times as much heat as electricity put in. We are working with thermodynamics not against it.

26. 26 The Carbon Challenge – Reduce Energy Use Energy Efficiency vs Energy Conservation Technical Solutions – Improved insulation – Energy Efficient Appliances – Low Energy Lighting – More advanced technical solutions Awareness Raising 26

27. 27 How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO 2 looks like? 5 hot air balloons per person per year. Around 4 million over Norfolk. In the developing world, the average is under 1 balloon per person Is this Fair? On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO 2 each year. "Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little." Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

28. 28 Raising Awareness A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost over £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO 2. 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon. Standby on electrical appliances 60+ kWh a year - 3000 balloons at a cost of over £6 per year Filling up with petrol (~£41 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon) How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour? 1.6 miles At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya

29. 29 The Behavioural Dimension Household size has little impact on electricity consumption. Consumption varies by up to a factor of 9 for any given household size. Allowing for Income still shows a range of 6 or more. Education/Awareness is important

30. 30 The Carbon Challenge The background of the problem How does the UK compare with other countries How do we tackle the challenge – Reduce Energy Use Energy Efficiency vs Energy Conservation Technical Solutions Awareness Raising – Promote renewable Energy technologies – Carbon Footing Issues – to check how we are getting on Conclusions 30

31. 31 Between Dec 2006 and Nov 2007 Swaffham 1 Wind Turbine had a Load Factor of 25.5% Swaffham 2 had a load factor of 27.8% Scroby Sands had a Load factor of 25.8% but nevertheless produced sufficient electricity for 60% needs of houses in Norwich Wind Energy in East Anglia

32. 32 Performance of Local Wind Farms: Dec 2006 – Nov 2007

33. 33 Overall Average Load Factor for Norfolk and Suffolk: 26.98% Annual Performance of Local Wind Farms: Dec 2006 – Nov 2007

34. 34 Involve the local Community The residents on the island of Burray (Orkney) campaigned for a wind turbine. On average they are more than self-sufficient in electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter of electricity. Many of the Islanders bought shares in the project and are now reaping the reward. Orkney is hoping to be a zero net emitter of carbon dioxide by 2015.

35. 35 Micro Wind This device has a load factor of ~ 20.9% in Orkney generating around 10000 kWh per year. (6000 – 12000 claimed by manufactuer) The average house in Norwich uses 3700 kWh per year – in rural areas it is 5000 kWh In East Anglia the performance is between 1000 and 3000 kWh (data for 2007) despite being above manufacturers minimum wind speed. Average Load factor in East Anglia is only 4.9% compared to 26.98% for large machines Ways to Reduce Your Carbon Footprint: Micro Wind

36. 36 Involve the local Community Even better things are happening on the Island of Westray. The Parish Kirk, and Community Centre are heated by heat Pumps partly powered by Wind Turbines Load Factor 2007 - 20.9% Waste cooking oil from other islands is processed into biodiesel for farm and other vehicles. Ethanol used in process is obtained from fermentation of harvested sea weed

37. 37 Ways to Reduce Your Carbon Footprint: Micro Wind While these device are now available, and at least one manufacturer claims (or at least did claim) you could get “cash back” of up to £50, in 2007, none of the devices in UK appear to have generated sufficient to even trigger the basic threshold.

38. 38 Normal hot water circuit Solar Circuit Solar Pump Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions Solar Thermal Energy

39. 39 Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004 Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions Solar Thermal Energy

40. 40 Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions Solar Thermal Energy

41. 41 Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions Solar Photovoltaic

42. 42 House in Lerwick, Shetland Isles with Solar Panels - less than 15,000 people live north of this in UK! It is all very well for South East, but what about the North? House on Westray, Orkney exploiting passive solar energy from end of February

43. 43 The Carbon Challenge The background of the problem How does the UK compare with other countries How do we tackle the challenge – Reduce Energy Use Energy Efficiency vs Energy Conservation Technical Solutions Awareness Raising – Promote renewable Energy technologies – Carbon Footing Issues – to check how we are getting on – Are we making the best choices? Conclusions 43

44. 44 Personal Attitudes to Energy Use can be significant

45. Case 1 Add extra 200mm Loft insulation Saving 1.7% Fit cavity insulation – no change of Loft Insulation saves 29.0%

46. Case 2 Add extra 200mm Loft insulation Saving 2.4% Fit condensing boiler – no change of Loft Insulation saves 20.1%

47. 47 Social Awareness of Occupational Impact on Climate Change

48. 48 Social Awareness of Occupational Impact on Climate Change

49. Conclusions Our Wasteful Society 650 m 21 m 273 m We behave as though we call in the RAF The Heat Pump is the analogy with the crane

50. 50 WEBSITE Cred-uk.org/ This presentation will be available from tomorrow at above WEB Site: follow Academic Links We have difficult choices to make Reduce Energy we use Integrated approach to renewables Need to act now otherwise we might have to make choice of whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old person’s room Conclusions Are you up to the Challenge?: Will you make a pledge? Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher "If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading."