1. Grand Strategy Thinking in the 21st Century Arctic Energy & Security Developments by Mikå Mered, Polariis Consulting

2. We all know the Arctic is hard to define

3. We all know the ice is melting

4. We all know shipping lanes are opening

5. NSR & Arctic Bridge

6. GEOSTRATEGY NWP & Arctic Bridge

7. Are we focusing on the right questions? May there be a war for the Arctic’s resources?

8. From Hobbes to Tilly: war making is inherent to modern state making, since resources grabbing is the only way to sustain the state. «War made the state, and the state made war» (C. Tilly, in War Making and State Making as Organized Crime)

9. First question: can we not tap into Arctic oil & gas?

10. Maximum mechanical energy produced by a 65kg average human being in one day: 0,55 kWh If produced every other day= 100kWh per annum 1L of fossil fuel = 10kWh 1 human = 10L of fossil fuel

11. How many slaves do we own? Energy Consumption per Person per Year (in kWh, global average)

12. In a finite (malthusian) world, a € inefficiently used is a lost €... (1/2) € / kW / working hours Yearly running time (in hours) € / kW installed Lifetime (in years) kWh produced per kW installed over lifetime €cents of capital required per kWh produced over lifetime NuclearCOALO&GHydro Onshore wind Solar Offshore wind

13. Only 3 technologies have better ROI than O&G: Thorium-cycle Nuclear (technology known, grid- building possible in ±20 yrs) Fusion H2 (better ROI, but EROEI depends on primary energy source used) In a finite (malthusian) world, a € inefficiently used is a lost €... (2/2)

14. USGS average est.: 412 Bn BOEArctic O&G: Greenland: 30% Iceland: 1% Norway: 0% Russia: 0% Alaska: 0% Canada: 0% Dependence on foreign oil:

15. Arctic vs Shales? © Power magazine

16. Arctic vs Shales?

17. Arctic hydrocarbon direct revenues expected by Russian strategists (if curr. prices remain constent): $1.7 Tn

18. TAKEAWAY No renewable energy at this point is efficient enough to cannibalize fossil fuels. 27% of all energy investments worldwide are directed towards inefficient- enough renewables. However, these investments only serves microeconomic short-term interests. The financial bubble created will harm mature economies when the market corrects itself in 15-20 years time, due to the rapid emergence of greentechs with much greater EROEI.

19. TAKEAWAY At our level of technological advancement, no one primary energy source can sustainably support a global hegemon. Likewise, current G0 world order is unsustainable.

20. From a geostrategic perspective

21. Until 15th century

22. 16th-19th centuries1st Globalization Wave

23. 19th centurySea-land opposition

24. 1904Heartland

25. 1942HeartlandRimland

26. Chicago Plan Commission - Airports Page Courtesy of Prelinger Library's Chicago ephemera collection / Eric Fischer 1945

27. 1946

28. 1955-1977HeartlandRimlandContainment

29. 2012HeartlandRimlandContainmentPIVOT

30. 2013Iceless-Arctic?PIVOT

31. 2013Iceless-Arctic?PIVOT

33. 2013Iceless-Arctic?

34. Arctic Trafic Mars ‘12Sept. ‘12 GIUK Gap

35. Announced Military Investments in the Arctic (2013-2025) NATO: $100 Bn Russia: $750 Bn NATO: $60 Bn Russia: $350 Bn Our correction (most-plausible scenario)

36. 2020 & bey.GIUK Gap as the new world’s heartland

37. Permanent Observers NB: EU & Turkey have ad-hoc observer status. Member-states Inclusiveness & comprehensiveness are the keys

38. Foreign Policy tools Track-II tools

39. TAKEAWAY The Arctic community has 20 to 25 years ahead of her to develop as many strategic inderdependencies as possible and allow for the emergence of an official dialogue on security issues. The Arctic Council is the only legitimate-enough body to host and organize such dialogue. Global regionalisation strategy necessary to foster global security. Otherwise, there will be no conflict for the Arctic, but should there be a conflict, it will happen in the Arctic.

40. Thank you !