1. Analysis of Salvador and El Centro School Boundaries SEPTEMBER 16, 2015

2. KEY POINTS  Elementary Enrollment in North Napa is declining  Potential Growth in South Napa  Middle Schools are Projected to Grow  Harvest and Silverado need growth capacity to accommodate planned development  El Centro and Salvador are recommended to be combined 240 + 240  Consolidation is recommended for August, 2018  The District will be asking for staff and parent input for the design of the consolidated school 9/16/2015 2

3. Parameters of the Demographic Analysis The District requested that Jack Schreder & Associates (JSA) compile demographic data and resident projections for the outcome of a potential relocation of River Charter to the current campus of either El Centro Elementary or Salvador Elementary. Upon relocation of River Charter to either campus, the District would potentially combine the two existing elementary school boundaries into a single new elementary school boundary, with all students residing therein assigned to either El Centro or Salvador elementary school. Northwood elementary school could be expanded to accommodate any potential overflow students. It is important to note that whichever site is not chosen to house River Charter would be expanded to accommodate 500 students. For this analysis, the student residents for a potential El Centro/Salvador boundary were analyzed and projected forward for ten years. ◦The student resident population is the number of District students living in a school’s attendance boundary, of the grade levels served by the school. An analysis of the socioeconomically disadvantaged (SED) and English language learner (ELL) populations was also conducted to determine how a potential move will affect the composition of these student populations. 9/16/15 3

4. Potential Residential Development Residential development must also be considered as students generated from new housing units will need to be housed by the NVUSD. The attendance areas of Northwood Elementary, El Centro Elementary and Salvador Elementary were reviewed for current and planned residential development. Based on research with the City of Napa, and a review of the current Housing Element for potential development of identified residential sites, minimal development is planned for these areas and students generated could be housed in current facilities. The currently approved residential projects in the Northwood Elementary Attendance Area contain 33 residential units. The El Centro Elementary Attendance Area has no approved projects, while Salvador has 14 units currently approved but not constructed. Utilizing the current student generation rate for elementary students (.117 per household), these units would generate approximately 6 students for the district to house. 9/16/2015 4

5. Geographic Impact The potential new elementary school boundary combines the current El Centro and Salvador boundaries. This map depicts what this new boundary would look like 9/16/2015 5

6. Current Resident Projections El Centro’s existing student resident population of TK-5th grade student residents is projected to decline until 2018, then remain stable for the rest of the projection period. Salvador’s existing student resident population of TK-5th grade student residents is projected to decline gradually until 2017, after which time it also stabilizes for the remainder of the projection period. Actual Residents Projected Residents in El Centro Boundary 2014 -15 2015- 16 2016- 17 2017- 18 2018- 19 2019- 20 2020- 21 2021- 22 2022- 23 2023- 24 2024- 25 TK79988999999 K34353733 34 35 3637 14136373935 36 37 38 2464439 4238 3940 355474540414339 40 41 45756484641 4440 41 5 6058514944 47434243 Total281286274257248243244 242245249 9/16/2015 6 Actual Residents Projected Residents in Salvador Boundary 2014 -15 2015- 16 2016- 17 2017- 18 2018- 19 2019- 20 2020- 21 2021- 22 2022- 23 2023- 24 2024- 25 TK68877778888 K212324222122 23 24 121202223212021 22 23 2 1817192118 19 3302621 222421 22 42531272221232522 23 5342934312625262825 26 Total160154 144139 140 139141144

7. Combined Resident Projections The result of combining the two boundaries is a boosted student resident population of TK-5th grade students that declines until 2018, then stabilizes. Actual ResidentsProjected Residents in Combined Boundary 2014-152015-162016-172017-182018-192019-202020-212021-222022-232023-242024-25 TK131618161516 17 K5557625554555657585960 16256586356555758596061 26962565863565556585960 385746761636760 616263 48286756862646962616264 57588938174687175686769 Total441440428401387382384 382387393 9/16/2015 7

8. Impact to SED and ELL Populations 9/16/2015 8 El Centro currently has higher proportions of both ELL and SED student populations than Salvador, so the combined boundary would result in percentages in between what each school currently experiences separately. El Centro Current PercentagesSalvador Current PercentagesPercentages for Combined Boundary SED Population37.4%26.9%33.6% ELL Population27.8%23.8%26.3%

9. Students Attending Salvador In 2014-15, Salvador enrollments were comprised of 67 neighborhood students and 194 students that resided outside of the Salvador school boundary. In 2014-15, Salvador served 41.9% of its neighborhood TK-5 th grade students. 9/16/2015 9

10. Students Attending El Centro In 2014-15, El Centro enrollments were comprised of 162 neighborhood students and 82 students that resided outside of the El Centro school boundary. In 2014-15, El Centro served 57.7% of its neighborhood TK-5 th grade students. 9/16/2015 10

11. Map of Students Migrating from/to El Centro and Salvador 9/16/2015 11 In 2014-15, 11 students attended El Centro who lived in the Salvador boundary. This equaled 6.9% of Salvador’s student residents. In 2014-15, 21 students attended Salvador who lived in the El Centro boundary. This equaled 7.5% of Salvador’s student residents.

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16. Questions? THANK YOU. 16 9/16/2015