1. HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS
Jun
HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS

2. 2015 Hurricane Season Update
Timothy Garner, NOAA
Acting Chief Spaceflight Meteorology Group

3. 2015 Hurricane Season in a Nutshell
Lower than average number of storms forecast.
Around 8 named storms (70% chance of between 6 to 11)
Already two: TS Ana and TS Bill
Historical analogs and modelled seasonal conditions favor develop in a belt from the Gulf of Mexico to the central Atlantic north of the usual Main Development Region
TS Ana and TS Bill fit this pattern
This pattern could allow activity near the higher range of the NOAA predicted number of storms.
Does an active June and July mean the rest of the season will be busy too?
Statistical correlation is insignificant. Overall early season activity, high or low, has little bearing on the season as a whole.
BUT, for June/July storms south of 22N and east of 77W there is a strong association with activity for the rest of the year. This year no named storms in that area may mean below normal season.

4. Factors for 2015 Season
El Nino occurring and forecast to strengthen and last through winter
-- El Nino suppresses hurricanes in the Atlantic basin
(La Nina favors hurricanes)
-- Primary factor in this season’s outlook
Near to slightly below average Sea Surface Temperatures in tropical Atlantic
observed June SST pattern in the Atlantic is the opposite of that observed in highly active years.
The “Multi-Decadal Signal” not a factor
-- Long term cycle of warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures favorable for hurricanes in the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) since 1995 may have ended.

7. Atlantic Hurricane Outlooks 2015
Forecast Group
Number of Named Storms
Number of Hurricanes
Number of Major Hurricanes (cat 3 or larger)
Long-Term Average ( ) 12
6.5 2
NOAA (May 27 issue)
*included TS Ana
6 – 11
70% chc < normal
20% chc near normal
10% chc > normal
3 – 6
0 - 2
Colorado State (June Issue)
(April issue)
8* ( ) 7
*included Ana
3 (0.9 – 5.1)
1 (0-2.6)
UKMET Office
WSI
Penn State
NC State
Coastal Carolina University
Cuban Met. Service
Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), Inc. 9 8 5
10**
**(2 TS 1H landfall)
N/A 4 3 1

8. JSC Impacts Tropical Storm Bill
3 day rainfall totals:
B30: ”
B421: 3.82”
EFD: 2.98”
Max wind gust:
B30: 43 mph
EFD: 30 mph
JSC average winds < TS force
8+ JENS messages issued by SMG about Bill
Highlighted minor to moderate flooding threat from 4.5” to 6” rain on average with possibility of isolated locations nearby receiving 6 to 10”
Wind gusts to tropical storm strength
No or neglible storm threat to JSC
Additional updates sent to JSC emergency managers and ISS FD’s
Tropical Storm Bill Path (Wikipedia)
NOAA/NWS and Houston Chronicle
10-13”

9. 2014 Hurricane Outlooks Verification
Named
Storms
Hurricanes
Major
( Cat 3 +)
Actual 8 4 2
NOAA / NWS
8-13
3-6
1-2
Colorado State 10 1
Weather Underground
7-9
1-3
0-2
Normal
Season 12 6 3

10. Alan Mather, Chief of Protective Services
Hurricane Overview
Alan Mather, Chief of Protective Services

11. Hurricane Preparedness Levels
Level 5 – AWARENESS (Jun-1 through Nov 30)
Level 4 – CONCERN (impact to JSC in ~72 hrs)
Level 3 – PREPARATION (impact in ~48 hrs)
Level 2 – CLOSURE (impact to JSC in ~36 hrs)
Level 1 – RIDEOUT
Assessment
Recovery

12. Decisions and Risks Why Levels 4, 3, 2, 1 don’t always work…
Riding it Out
Systematic shut down (~ 6 hrs to shutdown plant) vs Hard shut down (boiler recovery)
Electrical grid shut down
How many stay onsite to ride-out?
Entire first wave recovery team
5 man team (recovery team to Merrill Center)
Team to run utilities if we leave power up
No one (small team to Webster)
When does the team leave?
Recovery
Site Utilities and services
Safety
Community services (hospitals, gas etc.)
Concern to Prep….
Weekend?
Late in the day?
Holidays?
What are schools doing?
Speed, size of storm?
Certainty of track?
Prep to Closure
Employees mentally shutting down
Different personal timeframes
Mandatory evacuation zones

13. Senior Staff Communications
Senior Staff/Away team Telecom
Telecom number and passcode
GETS card
jscsos.com >Senior Staff Info page
Login and password
ENS
Center Closure Notice via text and
HR check-in survey
Recall of employees
ENS+
VPN access (RSA Token and NDC Password)
Recovery
TELL EMPLOYEES NOT TO RETURN UNTIL RECALLED

14. www.jscsos.com Username is your email address.
You will be provided a password

15. ENS Plus JSC’s HR Employee Accountability Tool Senior Staff
AH-Bill Kerneckel
Senior Staff
June 29, 2015

16. URL - https://ensplus.jsc.nasa.gov
Why ENS Plus?
ENS Plus is a JSC HR employee accountability tool for Senior Level Management and Supervisors to keep status on their employees after an ENS Survey notification has been sent out.
ENS Plus features
Rolls up employee survey data into an organization view for supervisors and management. [# safe, # not ok, # of unknown, etc.]
Google Map display of employee’s residential address
Can report out on simultaneous emergency events
Can report on contractor and civil servant survey data
Tool will work with any mobile device while on the NASA network. (iPad, iPhone, Android, etc.)
Who Can Access ENS Plus?
Civil Servant Supervisors
Emergency Operations HR
Contractor POCs
New
URL -

17. For questions on JSC ENS Plus please contact: