1. ICU Course Dr Fraser Cameron

2. The State of the Union Political Crisis due to failure to ratify constitutional treaty (France and NL) Budget fight ($100billion) 1.04% GDP Economy / which model? Anglo-Saxon, Nordic, Rhineland, New Member States Lisbon Agenda (to make EU most competitive economy by 2010) Enlargement – Turkey $64,000?

3. EU as a Global Actor Interaction between internal and external policies eg coal and steel, agriculture, environment, internal market Values eg democracy, human rights, death penalty, ICC, Kyoto Neighbourhood top priority EU/US > Friends or Rivals? EU and “effective multilateralism”

4. Development of CFSP European Political Cooperation 1992 Maastricht Treaty / CFSP 1997 Amsterdam Treaty (Solana as High Representative) 2001 Nice Treaty (Political and Security Committee, Military Committee) Joint Actions, Common Positions

5. The EU and the Balkans 1991 break up of Yugoslavia “the hour of Europe” 1995 Dayton / US settlement 1999 Kosovo / US bombing 2003 Thessalonika Road Map How many countries? Serbia? Kosovo? Montenegro? Croatia, Macedonia, Albania, Bosnia

6. Towards ESDP CFSP needs armed forces Kosovo < St Malo Anglo/French accord 1999 Helsinki Headline Goals 60,000 troops ready in 30 days for 12 month peacekeeping deployment Capabilities European defence agency EU/NATO relations

7. Enlargement of the EU 1973 UK, Denmark, Ireland 1984 Greece 1986 Spain and Portugal 1995 Sweden, Austria, Finland 2004 Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Slovakia, Czech republic, Hungary, Slovenia, Malta, Cyprus

8. Enlargement (2) Future candidates ; Macedonia, Turkey, Croatia, Norway, Iceland, Switzerland, Western Balkans (Albania, Serbia [Kosovo, Montenegro], Bosnia/Herzogivina Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan Moldova, Belarus, Ukraine Deepening v Widening Can EU cope with 40 members?

9. European Neighbourhood Policy Consequence of last enlargement Aimed at creating “ring of friends” East = Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus, Caucasus South = Mediterranean partners Action Plans ; involvement in EU policies Finance? Institutions?

10. The EU and the Middle East EU united behind UN resolutions after 1967 war More willing to see Palestinian view Close but difficult relationship with Israel Barcelona process 10 th anniversary Association agreements Security issues (demography, radical Islam, environment, economic failure)

11. Transatlantic relations EU and US biggest trade partners $one billion a day relationship End of Cold War changed paradigm Disputes on Balkans, Middle East, Iran, Iraq, ICC, Kyoto But still closest relationship New Transatlantic Agenda (NTA) 1995 Bush very unpopular in Europe

12. EU/Asia EU trying to promote regional integration, ASEAN, SARCC, ASEM EU model not easily transferable Differences on sovereignty, human rights, eg Burma Fascination with China; huge growth in trade relations (but US suspicious eg arms embargo)

13. EU:Asia (2) EU/Japan Action Plan, what action? Japan perceived as totally in US camp EU/Korea, mainly trade based EU/India, growing fast, recognition of India as regional, maybe global actor ASEAN, East Asia Community, what future?

14. The EU and Global Governance EU stands for “effective multilateralism” but what does it mean? Strong support for UN but problem of UNSC, German ambitions for a seat (US only supporting Japan) High/level Panel, many useful ideas eg Peacebuilding Commission WTO / IMF / World Bank / G8< reforms?

15. EU and Development Aid EU largest donor in the world Main targets Africa and Asia Special responsibility as former colonial empires Many special relationships eg Belgium and the Congo, Portugal and Angola Good governance key issue

16. The EU and the UN EU/UN relations developing fast Crisis management main focus EU very supportive of Kofi Annan’s reform agenda and Millenium Summit goals But UNSC divisive issue Regional bodies in UN system?

17. Constitutional Treaty Provides for EU foreign minister and EU foreign service with EU missions Legal personality for Union Structured cooperation in defence Solidarity clause Permanent president of the Council More coherence, visibility, effectiveness

18. Member States and the CFSP CFSP/ESDP highly sensitive Unlikely to change to community method Many special ties, different histories, traditions, capabilities, interests But working through EU better than trying to go it alone, slow process Danger of a ‘directoire’ < but ad hoc groups eg on Iran acceptable

19. Conclusions CFSP/ESDP very new policy areas Hardly ten years old / political will slow to develop But Solana now widely regarded as ‘EU foreign policy chief’ What ambitions for CFSP? Real global actor? Military capabilities? Able to look after own security?