1. „Die kalte Sonne“ The cold Sun
The Medieval Warm Period within the Context of Millennial Scale Climate Cycles
Dr Sebastian Lüning

2. „The Cold Sun – Why climate catastrophe is called off“ New book reminds IPCC scientists of the important role of natural climate drivers
Publication date: February 2012
Authors:
Prof Fritz Vahrenholt: CEO Renewable Energy Company
Dr Sebastian Lüning: Geologist
English edition: to be published in fall 2012
Fritz Vahrenholt
Sebastian Lüning

3. Reaction of the Climate Establishment
Prof Mojib Latif (University of Kiel): “When reading the book as a scientist, my hair stands on end. This is a pseudo-scientific treatise.”
Prof Hartmut Graßl (formerly Director of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) of the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) in Geneva): “Well, you know, I don‘t really want to comment on this rubbish.“
Prof Jochem Marotzke (Director of the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg): “The book authors have read a lot but understood very little.“

4. But there were also positive reactions
Economy Program ECO of Swiss Television: Book Tip of the Week (23 April 2012)
Hamburger Abendblatt: “Cora Stephan once criticised the intellectual doldrums in Germany. What an irony that a wind energy manager of all people has to experience this lull”
PM Magazin: “Science is vulnerable to group think. Once a consensus has formed it becomes hard to express doubts. This is particularly true in the politically sensitive climate sciences. The subject is too important for that it could be allowed to suppress opinions deviating from the alleged consens. And this is why the climate discussion needs people like Vahrenholt.“

5. Daily Climate News on our Blog: www.kaltesonne.de

6. The Beginning Published in 2006 New York Times Bestseller
Fred Singer/Dennis Avery: „Unstoppable Global warming - every 1,500 years“
Published in 2006
New York Times Bestseller

7. Dansgaard-Oeschger Cycles during the last Ice Age: 1,470 years cycle
Cycles with 1,470 years duration
Grouped into bundles of cycles with common trends
Temperatue changes of up to 10°C within a few decades
DO-cycles occurred in Pleistocene (last ice age).
What is their significance in postglacial times, the last 10,000 years?

8. Primary solar activity cycle periods
There is no 1,500 year cycle periode in the primary solar activity record
Next closest cycles are the
Eddy cycle (1000 years) and the
Hallstatt cycle (2300 years)
Stefan Rahmstorf suggests Gleissberg/Suess-de-Vries cycle combination for Pleistocene DO- cycles.
Spectral Analysis of sunspot data (data: Solanki et al. 2004, analysis from Kern et al. 2012)

9. Start of a new field of research in 2001: Solar-forced millennial-Scale Climate Cycles in the North Atlantic

10. Ice Rafted Debris as Climate Proxy
studied cores
Bond et al. 2001

11. Synchronicity between Solar Activity and Temperature in North Atlantic
cold
warm
thousand years before present
Solar activity (blue curve): C14 as proxy for cosmic rays which are modulated by solar magnetic field Temperature (black curve): HSG=Hematite Stained Grains=ice berg debris
Bond et al. 2001

12. Gerard Bond ( )

13. Bond‘s Follow-up Study 2003: The Same Milennial-Scale Cycles in a Lake in Alaska

14. IPCC AR4 lead author Stefan Rahmstorf on Bond et al
IPCC AR4 lead author Stefan Rahmstorf on Bond et al. 2001: „Bond cycles could not be reproduced in later studies“
Rahmstorf about Bond et al 2001:
Bond cycles could not be reproduced by other scientists.
In later years Bond did not believe his results himself.
Bond cycles are a dead end street in climate science.

15. Did Bond really give up on his Bond cycles. No
Did Bond really give up on his Bond cycles? No! He even published about them just before passing away
Müller et al. 2005

16. Kemp et al. (January 2012 in Quaternary Research): Bond Cycles in South East Australia
Precipitation (upper curve) and temperatures (lower curve) in synchronicity with Bond‘s North Atlantic cycles
North Atlantic Cold periods marked by grey bars
Kemp et al. 2012

17. Cléroux et al. (February 2012 in Paleoceanography): Bond Cycles off Cape Hatteras, North Carolina
Temperature off Cape Hatteras (blue curve) and solar activity (red curve) in synchronicity with Bond‘s North Atlantic cycles
Cléroux et al. 2012

18. Steinhilber et al. (April 2012 in PNAS): Bond Cycles in Chinese Cave
Delta 18O reflects precipitation and strength of Asiatic monsoon
High degree of synchronity with solar activity changes
Steinhilber et al. 2012

19. Neff et al in Nature: Synchronicity between solar activity and temperature development in dripstones of Oman for the period BC
Neff et al. 2001

20. Greenland Temperature reconstruction for the past 5,000 years based on deuterium in ice cores
Carter 2008

21. Solar induced millennial-scale cycles everywhere
North Atlantic
Greenland
Alaska
China (1)
Oman
India
West Virginia
China (2)

22. A miracle: How did the sun do the trick?
Radiative forcing according to IPCC AR4:
CO2: 1.66 W/m2
Sun: 0,12 W/m2
Sun has hardly any climatic significance in the IPCC models

23. Medieval Warm Period and Modern Warm Period as part of the Bond cycle

24. Cold Period (Migration Period)
Solar 1000-Year-Cycle and its climatic response What would be the natural continuation?
1850
1000
1000
TODAY
BC. AD
Sun
Minoan Warm Period
Roman Warm Period
Medieval Warm Period
Modern Warm Period
Temperature
Cold Period
Cold Period
Cold Period (Migration Period)
Little Ice Age 2 CO

25. Attack against the Sun: Attempt #1 The Hockey Stick Illusion
Michael Mann
Steve McIntyre

26. Cold Period (Migration Period)
Solar 1000-Year-Cycle and its climatic response The Hockey Stick Illusion
1850
1000
1000
TODAY
BC. AD
Sun
Minoan Warm Period
Roman Warm Period
Medieval Warm Period
Modern Warm Period
Temperature
Cold Period
Cold Period
Cold Period (Migration Period)
Little Ice Age 2 CO

27. Cold Period (Migration Period)
Solar 1000-Year-Cycle and its climatic response The Hockey Stick Illusion
1850
1000
1000
TODAY
BC. AD
Sun
Minoan Warm Period
Roman Warm Period
Medieval Warm Period
Modern Warm Period
Temperature
Cold Period
Cold Period
Cold Period (Migration Period)
Little Ice Age 2 CO

28. Attack against the Sun: Attempt #2 Little Ice Age allegedly caused by volcanoes

29. Cold Period (Migration Period)
Attack against the Sun: Attempt #2 Little Ice Age allegedly caused by volcanoes
1850
1000
1000
TODAY
BC. AD
Sun
Volcano?
Volcano?
Volcano?
Volcano
Minoan Warm Period
Roman Warm Period
Medieval Warm Period
Modern Warm Period
Temperature
Cold Period
Cold Period
Cold Period (Migration Period)
Little Ice Age 2 CO

30. The 1000-year cycle

31. Increase of Temperature, CO2 and Solar Activity
Besides temperature and CO2 also solar activity has increased over the past 150 years.
The solar magnetic field has more than doubled.
CO2
Sun

32. Solanki et al. 2004 (nature):
Solar activity of the past decades was one of the highest over the past years
Solanki et al (nature): 17 17

33. Synchronicity between solar activity and streamflow of Parana River over past 100 years
after Mauas et al. 2010

34. Solar Schwabe 11 year cycle
Years

35. Different response of different solar parameters
Variability
Sunspots
Radio Waves
several % up to 70% UV
Open Solar Flux
10%
Cosmic Rays
Total Solar Irradiance
0,1%
Magnetic Field
Gray et al. 2010

36. Synchronicity between solar activity and water level of Lake Victoria (East Africa)
Stager et al. 2007

37. Temperature response to 11 year solar cycle
Temperature response to 11 year solar cycle
Sunspots
Temperature
(deducted:: El Nino & volcanoes)
Scafetta 2009

38. What‘s next for Bond cycle?

39. 23rd 24th Weak Solar Cycle 24 25? 24? 23 4 5 6 Archibald 2010

40. Gleissberg and Suess/de Vries Cycles
Years

41. 210 Year Suess/de Vries Cycle
Next Suess/de Vries Minimum
last Suess/de Vries Minimum
Abdussamatov 2010

42. Prognosis of solar activity based on main solar cycles
Clilverd et al. 2006

43. The traditionale IPCC view, Feulner & Rahmstorf (2010): Upcoming solar minimum with little climate effect

44. The traditional IPCC view, Jones et al
The traditional IPCC view, Jones et al. (2012): Upcoming solar minimum with little climate effect

45. Our Schematic Temperature Prognosis („Die kalte Sonne“)

46. Thank You