1. The Future of Agricultural Research in Latin America [Paper The Future of Agricultural Research and Institutional Innovation in Latin America and the Caribbean Antônio Maria Gomes de Castro[1][1] Suzana Maria Valle Lima[2][2] José de Souza Silva[3][3] [1][1] PhD, EMBRAPA´s Senior researcher, email antonio.gomesdecastro@gmail.com, Brasília, Brazil.antonio.gomesdecastro@gmail.com [2][2] PhD, EMBRAPA´s Senior researcher, email suzana.lima@embrapa.br, Brasília, Brazil.suzana.lima@embrapa.br [3][3] PhD, EMBRAPA´s Senior researcher, email souza@cnpa.embrapa.br, Campina Grande, Brazil.souza@cnpa.embrapa.br The authors acknowledge the contribution of Claudia Castro Anzolini on the reading and revision of this paper. Third International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making 16th- 17th October 2008

2. The Future of Agricultural Research in Latin America [Paper Changing Environment of LA R&D organizations New scientific themes (biotechnology, nanotechnology and information science) generate technical and managerial obsoleteness; scientific, methodological and research processes paradigm shifts makes inadequate capacities and infrastructure; dependence on public national treasury resources, which are, in general, scarce; social and political pressure for new themes such as the social inclusion, environmental sustainability, health, and food safety. regulation factors trends (intellectual property rights, legislation on plant cultivars, environmental protection laws, bio-security and biodiversity protection laws); Rising levels of quality and consumption; New actors in the agricultural technological innovation processes;

3. The Future of Agricultural Research in Latin America [Paper R&D and Quo Vadis R&D Organizations Dilemma –agricultural research systems want to begin institutional innovation processes but not all understand the genesis of the current vulnerability; –They find difficult to develop relevant strategies for the institutional sustainability of their systems or organizations. The Quo Vadis Project –Contribution to R&D coordinators, managers and strategists; –It looks to the future of agricultural research in Latin America; –It suggests relevant strategies for the institutional innovation; –It begins with a general question: Quo vadis, institutional innovation?

4. The Future of Agricultural Research in Latin America [Paper The Project's main questions In what concerns the future of Latin American agricultural research organizations: Which context factors are more influential in the promotion of internal change? What degree of uncertainty is associated to the factors that promote organizational changes? How may occurring context changes affect the priorities of R&D themes and clients?

5. The Future of Agricultural Research in Latin America [Paper Objectives To analyze the changing world food system, identifying critical factors for its present and future performance; To analyze public and private agricultural research organizations which are relevant for the Latin American agribusiness (and its respective performances and interfaces, and the future opportunities and restrictions for its sustainability; To draw strategies for corresponding identified scenarios.

6. The Future of Agricultural Research in Latin America [Paper Present S&T public system system Present S&T private system system Future S&T public system system S&T public Future S&T publicsystem system Events arising from the global social and economic system Events arising from the global social and economic system Conceptual framework - QUO VADIS Project

7. The Future of Agricultural Research in Latin America [Paper Conceptual Model of Agricultural R&D Organization its focus; its demands; its management systems; its technical capacity; its reward system; its research performance; its public and private research realm; its financial resources; its senior management capacity; the social participation in the research process; Its alliances with stakeholders. Constructed to represent the essential elements for the R&D organization management

8. The Future of Agricultural Research in Latin America [Paper Money availability for R&D R&D performance R&D management system Infra-structure for R&D Technical Capacity Public and private research market share Stakeholders alliances Social Participation in the research process Demands for R&D R&D Focus Managerial skills of Directors Board Economic concentration into agribusiness Social Control of Innovation R&D Focus Model Example of Models Constructed

9. The Future of Agricultural Research in Latin America [Paper Methodology Interview with key actors; Systems analysis and modeling of the agricultural research organizations and the relationship among them; Conceptual framework development –Versions 0, 1 and 2; Identification of critical performance variables, with their respective positive and negative influences; Development of the conceptual frameworks final version; Selection of experts, construction and validation of the DELPHI questionnaire; First and second round of DELPHI questionnaire application and its statistics analysis; –Experts - from the universities, non-governmental organizations, the national agribusiness, the political sector, the federal public research sector, the natural resources field, the social sector, the international organization. – Experts in each Panel were: Brazil – 49; Cuba – 33; Mexico – 53; Panama – 49; Peru – 46; Venezuela – 41. Workshop for the development of derived strategies of the identified scenarios.

10. The Future of Agricultural Research in Latin America [Paper The DELPHI questionnaire Developed by the coordination team in Embrapa, Brazil; Structured in five blocks, judged to be critical for the future performance (Time span the year 2015): 1.Environmental turbulence; 2.Agricultural research focus; 3.Resources and alliances with stakeholders; 4.Agricultural research management systems; 5.Performance of the Public and Private Agricultural Research and its realm in the participating countries.

11. The Future of Agricultural Research in Latin America [Paper Results Organizational context and turbulence factors: influence, predictability of context variables: Future influence of environmental (contextual) variables on research organizations in the region; Environmental variables future behavior predictability; Critical uncertainties, a combination of future influence and predictability of contextual variables.

12. The Future of Agricultural Research in Latin America [Paper The more influential variables

13. The Future of Agricultural Research in Latin America [Paper The least influential variables Obs.: consensus, second round: 90-100% of total number of questions for the six countries.

14. The Future of Agricultural Research in Latin America [Paper Context variables and strategic value

15. The Future of Agricultural Research in Latin America [Paper Strategic Focus of Agricultural Research Social and economic segments who will benefit from the research program; Agro-industrial processes; Environmental themes; Scientific themes concerning biotechnology and nanotechnology.

16. The Future of Agricultural Research in Latin America [Paper Strategic Focus of Agricultural Research Variables Importance (median average) Scenario 1 (Tendency) Scenario 2 (Pessimistic) Scenario 3 (Optimistic) Self-consumption producers4.03.24.7 Small family producers linked to productive chains5.44.66 Medium and large agricultural and forestry producers6.25.56.8 Agro-industry and other industrial segments6.16.78.5 Consumers of food and non-food products7.36.88.3 Wholesale and retail businesses5.75.46.8 Inputs and service providers6.46.07.5 Public policymakers6.86.68.0 (Indigenous) Communities in the agro-system4.33.65.0 Non-governmental organizations5.75.26.7

17. The Future of Agricultural Research in Latin America [Paper Evaluations of actual and future importance and the knowledge required by several processes

18. The Future of Agricultural Research in Latin America [Paper Conclusions - Results indicates: Similarities between future opportunities and threats for R&D organizations. Possibility of limited extrapolation of strategies and of institutional innovation mechanisms. Competitiveness of the agribusiness and the differentiation of the products will continue to link the agricultural R&D to the productive chains, to the efficiency and quality of agro-industrial products and productive processes. R&D agenda should expand to include environmental sustainability in the agricultural productive systems and social development themes. An agricultural R&D organization more linked to economic development and to agribusiness and less to social development of less favored segments. An optimistic attitude of the panel indicates great collective trust in the activity of agricultural research and in its future.