1. Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models, ICTP, Trieste, 26 May - 6 June 2003 1 ARIAL PROGRAMME ON REGIONAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE MODELLING OVER THE NIGERIAN ZONE OF WEST AFRICA Imoh B. Obioh Atmospheric Research and Information Analysis Laboratory (ARIAL) Centre for Energy Research and Development (CERD) Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria

2. Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models, ICTP, Trieste, 26 May - 6 June 2003 2 Motivation Strong Climate System Drivers Strong Climate System Drivers Evidence of Some Systematic Climate System Evolution – portraying “change” Evidence of Some Systematic Climate System Evolution – portraying “change” Likely high vulnerability of many life support systems, and observed low capacity for early warning and adaptation Likely high vulnerability of many life support systems, and observed low capacity for early warning and adaptation Need to: Need to: –Improve understanding of regional climate system physics –Contribute to global scientific efforts on climate change –Provide framework for mitigation and adaptation –Integrate climate change issues into national economic medium to long term planning

3. Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models, ICTP, Trieste, 26 May - 6 June 2003 3 CHALLENGES Low and decreasing density of (especially younger) scientists (below NVP for survival) Low and decreasing density of (especially younger) scientists (below NVP for survival) Poor research, auxiliary infrastructure and local financial support – increasing tendency of work-sleep approach to research Poor research, auxiliary infrastructure and local financial support – increasing tendency of work-sleep approach to research Poor network of the limited infrastructure and people – little team work approach Poor network of the limited infrastructure and people – little team work approach

4. Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models, ICTP, Trieste, 26 May - 6 June 2003 4 OBJECTIVES OF ARIAL OVERAL OBJECTIVE OVERAL OBJECTIVE –Basic Meteorology and Climatology –LOWER AND UPPER ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS AND CHEMISTRY –Biosphere-Atmosphere Interactions –Air Pollution Research –CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENT: GHG Inventories GHG Inventories Mitigation Analyses Mitigation Analyses Regional Climate Modelling Regional Climate Modelling Development of Climate Change Scenarios Development of Climate Change Scenarios –Computational Sciences and Model Development –Information Sharing/Dissemination

5. Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models, ICTP, Trieste, 26 May - 6 June 2003 5 OBJECTIVES OF ARIAL RCM OBJECTIVE RCM OBJECTIVE –Improved Understanding of Physical Climate System in the Sub-Region –Provision of New Data for Impact Assessment, Planning and Public Education –Human Capacity and Support Infrastructure Development –Contribution to global efforts

6. Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models, ICTP, Trieste, 26 May - 6 June 2003 6 CURRENT RCM EFFORTS DEVELOPMENT OF DOWNSCALING TECHNIQUES DEVELOPMENT OF DOWNSCALING TECHNIQUES Based on need to: Sensibly project large-scale information on the regional scale (von Storch et al., 1993). Estimate local climate variability from the global scale.

7. Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models, ICTP, Trieste, 26 May - 6 June 2003 7 ITD/ITCZ (10 -20oLat): MJJAS Monsoon winds (850 – 700 hPa) Upper level Winds (Jets ) – –AEJ (500-600 hPa) – –TEJ (200 hPa) CLIMATE OF WEST AFRICA

8. Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models, ICTP, Trieste, 26 May - 6 June 2003 8 STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING Model Output Statistics uses: Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) PREDICTORS from ECHAM Zonal wind at 850 hPa Zonal wind at 700 hPa Precipitation PREDICTAND: Monthly mean precipitation data (Nigerian Meteorological Agency)

9. Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models, ICTP, Trieste, 26 May - 6 June 2003 9 RAINFALL CORRELATIONS: ECHAM VS OBS.(JAS) Horizontal resolution  300 km 18 Levels in the Vertical Need to Downscale to 50 km horizontal Resolution

10. Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models, ICTP, Trieste, 26 May - 6 June 2003 10 NIGERIA: 33 SYNOPTIC STATIONS USED IN STUDY

11. Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models, ICTP, Trieste, 26 May - 6 June 2003 11 JAS RAINFALL AVERAGE

12. Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models, ICTP, Trieste, 26 May - 6 June 2003 12 NIGERIA INTERANNUAL RAINFALL VARIABILITY DURING JAS

13. Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models, ICTP, Trieste, 26 May - 6 June 2003 13 PRELIMINARY RESULTS PRECIPITATION SKILL MAP

14. Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models, ICTP, Trieste, 26 May - 6 June 2003 14 850 hPa 700hPa 700hPa U-WIND SKILL MAP

15. Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models, ICTP, Trieste, 26 May - 6 June 2003 15 MOS Results still preliminary, not yet satisfactory. MOS Results still preliminary, not yet satisfactory. Appreciable skill levels obtained from model, can be improved upon Appreciable skill levels obtained from model, can be improved upon Despite poor MOS, downscaled results still agree more with Observed than GCM results in most cases. Despite poor MOS, downscaled results still agree more with Observed than GCM results in most cases. SUMMARY

16. Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models, ICTP, Trieste, 26 May - 6 June 2003 16 NEXT STEPS Improved MOS for Application over 1961-2000 and 2000-2100 time scales Improved MOS for Application over 1961-2000 and 2000-2100 time scales Engagements in Other RCM Techniques: Engagements in Other RCM Techniques: –Dynamical Downscaling –RegCM Improved Understanding of Regional Model Physics and Climate Sub-Systems’ Evolution Improved Understanding of Regional Model Physics and Climate Sub-Systems’ Evolution Provision of Data Provision of Data Increased Human Capacity/Infrastructure Development Increased Human Capacity/Infrastructure Development Sustainability of RCM and Other CC Initiatives Sustainability of RCM and Other CC Initiatives

17. Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models, ICTP, Trieste, 26 May - 6 June 2003 17 FRAMEWORK COLLABORATION: A KEY AVENUE TO FULFILLING MOST OF THESE

18. Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models, ICTP, Trieste, 26 May - 6 June 2003 18 Canada-Nigeria Climate Change Capacity Development Project (CN-CCCDP) supported with from CIDA, through GCSI, Canada; NEST, Nigeria; and Fed. Ministry of Environment, Abuja. Canada-Nigeria Climate Change Capacity Development Project (CN-CCCDP) supported with from CIDA, through GCSI, Canada; NEST, Nigeria; and Fed. Ministry of Environment, Abuja. International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI), Columbia University, Palisades New York, USA International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI), Columbia University, Palisades New York, USA African Regional Centre for Space Science and Technology Education, Ile-Ife, Nigeria. African Regional Centre for Space Science and Technology Education, Ile-Ife, Nigeria. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

19. Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models, ICTP, Trieste, 26 May - 6 June 2003 19 THANK YOU