1. Operational Risk Management

2. ORM Definition
ORM is the process of dealing with the risks associated with military operations, which includes: risk assessment, risk decision making and implementation of effective risk controls.

3. Objectives Upon completion of this lesson, you will be able to:
Define Operational Risk Management (ORM)
Define Time-Critical Risk Management (TCRM)
Describe the levels of ORM
Discuss the link between the ORM 5 Step Process and TCRM
Discuss how TCRM increases situational awareness and decreases risks
Apply TCRM to real-life situations

4. The ORM Process
Is a decision making tool used by personnel at all levels to increase effectiveness by identifying, assessing, and managing risks
Increases our ability to make informed decisions.
Minimizes risk to acceptable levels.
Applies both on the job and in off-duty activities.
“ORM must be practiced 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, 365 days a year.”

5. Principles of ORM Accept risk when benefits outweigh the costs.
Accept no unnecessary risk.
Anticipate and manage risk by planning.
Make risk decisions at the right level.
The goal of ORM is not to eliminate risk, but to manage risk so that the mission can be accomplished with the minimum amount of loss.
Only take risks that are necessary to accomplish the mission.
Risks are more easily controlled when they are identified early in the planning process.
When the leader responsible for executing the mission determines that the risk associated with that mission cannot be controlled at their level, or goes beyond the commander’s stated intent, they shall elevate their decision to their chain of command.

6. Controls become resources during execution
Levels of ORM
Strategic
Tactical
Time Available
for Planning
In-Depth Deliberate Time Critical
Limited/No Time
Mission &
Task
Success
Controls become resources during execution
The RM process is applied on 3 levels: in-depth, deliberate, and time critical. The basic factor that differentiates each level is time; that is the amount of time available to dedicate to the preparation and planning of missions or tasks. The figure above illustrates the levels of ORM and how they relate to each other. Note that there is no defined line where one level stops and another begins.
In-Depth: Refers to situations when time is not a limiting factor and the right answer is required for a successful mission or task. Examples include: long term planning of complex or contingency operations.
Deliberate: refers to situations when there is ample time to apply the RM process to the detailed planning of missions or tasks. Example: Planning of unit missions, tasks or events.
Time Critical: This is the level at which personnel operate on a daily basis both on and off duty.
Charts / Flips
Ship/Aircraft
(Systems Safety)
Instructions
Equipment Design
Formal Training
Operational Planning
Mission Briefs
CO Standing Orders
Safety Equipment
Team/Crew
Mission Execution Checklist
Change Management
(Mission/Crew Change)
Equipment Degradation

7. ORM Process Cycle Identify the Hazards Missions Assess the Hazards
Analyze
Mission
Determine Hazard Root Causes
List
Hazards
Missions
Lessons
Learned
New
Hazards
Assess the Hazards
Assess the severity
Assess Probability
Complete Risk
Assessment
Supervise
Monitor
Review
Feedback
Adjust Controls
The first step in the ORM process is to identify the hazards.
Implement Controls
Make Implementation Clear
Establish Accountability
Provide Support
Make Risk Decisions
Identify Control Options
Determine Control Effects
Determine
Residual
Risk

8. Identify the Hazards
A hazard is any condition with the potential to negatively impact mission accomplishment or cause injury, death, or property damage.
To identify the hazards:
Analyze the mission – Review the plans and orders describing the mission or task to ID all tasks, requirements and conditions then create a sequential or chronological list of all major events or tasks in a mission
List the hazards – Review each event in the sequence of tasks for hazards. Involve operators and those with applicable experience. Brainstorming is useful for this preliminary hazard analysis. Ask “what if” to think about what could go wrong.
Determine the root cause - Make a list of the causes associated with each identified hazard. The root cause is the first link in the chain of events leading to mission or task degradation.

9. ORM PROCESS CYCLE Identify the Hazards Missions Assess the Hazards
Analyze
Mission
Determine Hazard Root Causes
List
Hazards
Missions
Lessons
Learned
New
Hazards
Assess the Hazards
Assess the severity
Assess Probability
Complete Risk
Assessment
Supervise
Monitor
Review
Feedback
Adjust Controls
The second step in the ORM process is to assess the hazards.
Implement Controls
Make Implementation Clear
Establish Accountability
Provide Support
Make Risk Decisions
Identify Control Options
Determine Control Effects
Determine
Residual
Risk

10. Assess the Hazards
For each hazard indentified, determine the associated degree of risk in terms of probability and severity. The result of the risk assessment is a prioritized list of hazards, which ensures that controls are first identified for the most serious threat to mission or task accomplishment.
Risk: An expression of possible loss due to a hazard in terms of severity and probability.
Severity: Determines how bad the results would be if the hazard caused a mishap. Qualitatively categorized from 1 to 4, with 1 being the most severe.
Probability: Determines how likely the hazard could cause a mishap. Qualitatively categorized from A to D, with A being the most probable.

11. Severity Categories
Cat I: Death, loss of facility/asset or result in grave damage to national interests.
Cat II: Severe injury, illness, property damage, damage to national or service interests or degradation.
Cat III: Minor injury, illness, property damage, damage to national or service interests or degradation.
Cat IV: Minimal threat to personnel safety or health, property, national, service or command interests use of assets.

12. Probability Criteria
Subcategory A: A mishap likely to occur immediately or within a short period of time.
Subcategory B: Will cause a mishap in time.
Subcategory C: May cause a mishap in time.
Subcategory D: Unlikely to cause a mishap.

13. Risk Assessment Code Matrix
The Risk Assessment Code (RAC) Matrix is used to determine the RAC for a hazard. You must cross probability and severity to obtain this code.
Risk Assessment Matrix
PROBABILITY
Frequency of Occurrence Over Time A
Likely B
Probable C
May D
Unlikely I
Loss of Mission Capability, Unit Readiness or Asset; Death 1 2 3 II
Significantly Degraded Mission Capability or Unit Readiness; Severe Injury or Damage 4
III
Degraded Mission Capability or Unit Readiness; Minor injury or Damage 5 IV
Little or No Impact to Mission Capability or Unit Readiness; Minimal Injury or Damage.
Risk Assessment Codes
1 – Critical – Serious – Moderate – Minor – Negligible
SEVERITY
Effect of Hazard

14. ORM PROCESS CYCLE Identify the Hazards Missions Assess the Hazards
Analyze
Mission
Determine Hazard Root Causes
List
Hazards
Missions
Lessons
Learned
New
Hazards
Assess the Hazards
Assess the severity
Assess Probability
Complete Risk
Assessment
Supervise
Monitor
Review
Feedback
Adjust Controls
The third step in the ORM process is to make risk decisions.
Implement Controls
Make Implementation Clear
Establish Accountability
Provide Support
Make Risk Decisions
Identify Control Options
Determine Control Effects
Determine
Residual
Risk

15. Criteria for Establishing Effective Controls
Suitability
Feasibility
Acceptability
Explicitness
Support
Standards
Training
Leadership
Individual

16. Control Options Reject the risk Avoid the risk Delay an action
Transfer the risk
Compensate for the risk

17. Types of Controls
Engineering Controls: examples include material selection or substitution
Administrative Controls: examples include warnings, markings, placards, signs, written policies, instructions, SOPs
Physical Controls: examples include PPE, fences, special oversight personnel

18. ORM PROCESS CYCLE Identify the Hazards Missions Assess the Hazards
Analyze
Mission
Determine Hazard Root Causes
List
Hazards
Missions
Lessons
Learned
New
Hazards
Assess the Hazards
Assess the severity
Assess Probability
Complete Risk
Assessment
Supervise
Monitor
Review
Feedback
Adjust Controls
The fourth step in the ORM process is to implement controls.
Implement Controls
Make Implementation Clear
Establish Accountability
Provide Support
Make Risk Decisions
Identify Control Options
Determine Control Effects
Determine
Residual
Risk

19. Implement Controls Implementing Controls Requires:
Clearly communicating plan to all involved personnel
Establishing accountability
Guaranteeing necessary support is available
Careful documentation of each step in the RM process facilitates risk communication and the rational processes behind the RM decisions.

20. ORM PROCESS CYCLE Identify the Hazards Missions Assess the Hazards
Analyze
Mission
Determine Hazard Root Causes
List
Hazards
Missions
Lessons
Learned
New
Hazards
Assess the Hazards
Assess the severity
Assess Probability
Complete Risk
Assessment
Supervise
Monitor
Review
Feedback
Adjust Controls
The fifth step in the ORM process is to supervise.
Implement Controls
Make Implementation Clear
Establish Accountability
Provide Support
Make Risk Decisions
Identify Control Options
Determine Control Effects
Determine
Residual
Risk

21. Supervise
Supervision is a key step in the ORM process. It involves determining the effectiveness of risk controls throughout the mission or task. This involves three actions:
Monitoring the effectiveness of risk controls
Determining the need for further assessment of all or a portion of the mission or task due to an unanticipated change
Capturing lessons learned

22. Time Critical Risk Management
Red
Green
Yellow
TCRM is using risk management concepts when time and resources are limited.

23. Introduction: What is TCRM?
TCRM is using risk management concepts when time and resources are limited.
Applying ORM principles at the point of, or during execution of a mission or task
Methodology is similar but less deliberate than the five step process
The ABCD Model
A - Assess the situation
B - Balance Resources
C - Communicate to others
D - Do and Debrief the event
Red
Green
Yellow

24. Why TCRM? Experience is result of learning events
Leadership has a responsibility to marshal and coordinate experience from all personnel
Inconsistent levels of team and individual responses based on different levels of experience
The ABCD model provides ability to match previous mission to new experience
Provides common language in natural format

25. Nature of TCRM Designed to assist when
Working in a dynamic environment
Monitoring a static or routine situation
Making a decision with partial information
Develop sound, consistent habits
Consistent with continuous improvement
Requires unique set of skills
Relies on experience
Standardizes communication

26. ABCD Model Red Yellow Green
Green: indicates errors may occur, but will be caught by individual
Yellow: indicates the potential for consequential errors have increased
Red: indicates errors may occur that cannot be caught and become consequential to the task or mission
The swooping arrow represents a return to good SA and mitigation of risk
The blocks represent the multiple levels of resources
*The target is used during team communication to focus one or more individuals into an understanding of situational conditions or an individual may use it as a self-assessment tool
Examples of resources include: policies, tactics, procedures, processes, checklists, automation, briefings, external resources, knowledge, skills, and techniques.
The redundant alignment of the blocks is designed to illustrate stacking resources to prevent errors that may become consequential, such as a resource improperly used or a problem within a resource (i.e. flawed checklist or missing procedure).

27. ABCD B – Balance Resources C – Communicate to Others
The ABCD block represents the TCRM mnemonic
A – Assess the situation
B – Balance Resources
C – Communicate to Others
D – Do and Debrief the Event

28. Link Between TCRM and 5-Step Process
Is not a replacement for the 5-step deliberate process
Is the practical application of the 5-step process in a time-critical environment

29. Assess the Situation First two steps of the 5-step process
Requires accurate perception of situation in a relatively short period of time
Must maintain good SA
Reliant on individuals ability to comprehend situation and apply appropriate, available resources quickly and effectively
Difference between success and failure

30. Balance Resources
Tied specifically to making risk decisions (steps 3-5 of the 5-step process)
Must consider using resources created for the mission or activity
Thorough planning prior to event will increase availability of appropriate resources
Examples: PPE, proper training, understanding task or mission

31. Communicate to Others “C” reminds us, explicitly, to communicate
Maintains good SA, task loading, & crew factors are critical components
Communication tends to become limited under stress/time constraints
Who needs to know?
What can be done?
Who can help or assist?

32. Do and Debrief the Event
Tied to steps 4 & 5 of the 5-step process
Ensure the feedback loop is performed
Identify what worked and what did not
Ensure lessons are learned, recorded, & disseminated
Improves performance, mitigates risks
Is essential to completing the ABCD loop

33. Applying TCRM into the Planning Process
Skills
Process
1. Situational Awareness
I know my environment
I can see changes
2. Mission Analysis
I can assess the changes
I can see how they affect my job/mission
3. Assertiveness
I have confidence in myself, my team, and my leadership to bring new threats to their attention
4. Communication
I need to let my teammates or others involved know what I know
5. Leadership
My leaders accept my plan for action or know how to act to manage new risk
6. Adaptability/Flexibility
The plan is flexible and we can adapt to changes
7. Decision Making
We have enough information, time and a good plan of action, or we need help
ABCD for Decision Making
Assess the mission for potential adverse consequences
Balance the use of Resources to minimize risk
Communicate Risks and Intentions
Do (and debrief to improve future performance)

34. Time Critical Scenarios™
NIGHT UNREP
Routine Evolution
Time Constrained
Supply ship committed (perceived)
What’s Different?
Late at night start (2300)
Winds and seas different than forecast
Maintaining station difficult
Keeping fuel hoses seated very difficult
Decision Distractions
Desire to get the job done now
Fatigue
Routine Evolution
Option A
Continue with evolution
Risks – damage to equipment, people
Option B
Breakaway and reassess hazards and controls
Risks – delay, lower than normal fuel

35. Time Critical Scenarios™
RETURN FROM LEAVE
Routine Drive of 300 miles
End of Major Holiday Weekend
Muster at 0730
Getting underway in two days
What’s Changed?
Family early PM dinner runs late
Rear tire deflated (slow leak from nail puncture)
Light fog forms (not forecasted)
Decision Distractions
Never been late from leave
New Division CPO
Made this drive many times before
Option A
Continue with Drive
Risks – fatigue, flat tire, heavy traffic
Option B
Call ship and speak to OOD
Risks – Angry CPO, miss underway briefs

36. TCRM Card

37. Conclusion
Practical use of the ABCD Model by all Navy personnel will sustain a responsive capability to effectively meet personal challenges or mission contingencies now and in the future

38. NROTC ORM Unit mission Training syllabus Medical reporting
Safety surveys
Physical training
Swim Program
Sail Training
Rifle/Pistol
Close Order Drill
Marine Field Training Exercises
Marine hikes
Orientation
Levels of ORM training in NROTC Program
Pre-Mishap Safety Plan
Medical Reporting
TCRM Cards
Sample discussion:
ORM is briefed before every PT session.
ORM will be briefed before holiday and summer vacations to all MIDN.
Specifics such as phone numbers, contacts, and procedures will be given during the brief.
There will be a Duty Officer available 24 hours a day on the unit cell phone.
Use general common sense when planning to go away for a holiday break or doing PT on your own.

39. Questions & Summary