2. CLIMATE CHANGE, A lot of hot air or Creation in Crisis John Houghton Exeter Churches 4 March 2011 jp00

3. The Underlying Science of Global Warming has been known for over two hundred years

4. The underlying physics of global warming (known for 200 years) Solar radiation Long-wave radiation The Greenhouse Effect jp10

5. Changes in CO2 over 10,000 years from ice-cores (colored symbols) and atmospheric samples (red line) From Figure SPM-1, Summary for Policymakers, IPCC WG1 Fourth Assessment Report

6. Mean temperature change 1950’s to 2000’s Global average temperature change from 1850 from The Climate Diagnosis 2009

7. Observed global average temperature for each decade from 1850 to 2009 relative to 1961-90 - also showing uncertainty ranges from UK Met Office, Hadley Centre

8. Changes in Global Mean Temperature in 20 th century as observed (black) as simulated by ensemble of models (red & blue) – with natural and anthropogenic forcings (a) - with natural forcings only (b)

9. Reconstructed, observed and future warming projections from The Climate Diagnosis 2009

10. Some main impacts of climate change More intense heat waves Sea level rise More intense hydrological cycle jp14

11. European Heatwave 2003 - JJA temp anomaly compared with average 1961-90 From Technical Summary, IPCC WG1 Fourth Assessment Report, 2007

12. Adapted from Milliman et al. (1989).

13. Refugee family escaping from floods in Bangladesh

14. More rain for some; less rain for others Jun-Jul-Aug changes by 2090s Precipitation increases very likely in high latitudes Precipitation decreases likely in most subtropical land regions From Summary for Policymakers, IPCC WG1 Fourth Assessment Report

15. Floods and Droughts - the most damaging of world disasters On average they cause: more deaths more misery more economic loss than any other disasters jp18

17. Global Warming & Climate Change in 21st Century Rise in global average temperature > 2 ºC Rise in average sea level for many centuries More extreme heat waves, floods and droughts Likely Greenland ice cap will begin to melt down (complete melt down gives 7m of sea level rise) Poor nations worst affected Many millions of environmental refugees Loss of millions of species

18. How sure are we about Climate Change?

19. 20 Years of IPCC WG1 Assessment by hundreds of scientists from many countries No preconceived agenda Under honest & balanced discipline of science Cautious conclusions Tough scrutiny at intergovernmental meetings

21. What can we do about Global Warming? International Action to reduce emissions began in 1992 jp25

22. UN FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE Rio de Janeiro : June 1992 ARTICLE 2: OBJECTIVE The Convention’s ultimate objective.... is to achieve,.… stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere … the level to be chosen should enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner. jp26

23. Copenhagen Diagnosis Global emissions continue to rise

24. 6º 5º 4º 3º 2º 1º

25. jp31 Stabilization Target of 2ºC above preindustrial First proposed by EU Council in 1996 Broadly consensus for 2 deg at Copenhagen 2009

26. What Action? Buildings: increased energy efficiency - e.g. heat pumps Electricity: more efficient & carbon free generation & use Agriculture: increase carbon capture & decrease all greenhouse gas emissions Transport: move to electric vehicles Halt deforestation jp31

27. Electricity generation & use Renewable energy generation with no carbon emissions More Combined Heat and Power (CHP) More efficient appliances Buy GREEN electricity jp31

28. Renewable Energy Technologies Hydro Solar Thermal & PV Electricity Biomass Crops & Biofuels Biomass Waste Wind (On & Offshore) Tidal (Lagoons & Streams) & Wave Geothermal jp34

29. 16 MW, 300 acre, Sun-Edison, solar farm in N Carolina USA

31. Energy from Biomass & Waste FROM Waste (domestic & agricultural) & Biocrops TO Power stations, Biogas & Biofuels Local energy very valuable in rural areas Energy from agricultural & forestry wastes could meet at least 10 % of the World’s total energy needs. from World Energy Outlook, IEA, 2006 Table 14.6

32. Can we achieve the 2 degree target? How long have we got?

33. Waymarks for global energy emissions road map to 2050 From Houghton, Global Warming, the Complete Briefing, 4th ed. CUP. 2009

34. Investment in Energy to 2050 Under business-as usual ~ 6% of world GDP With emissions reductions under 2 deg target ~ extra 1% of world GDP Extra investment more than recovered through savings on fuel Further subsidiary benefits to be realized from IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2010

35. The International Challenge

36. per Capita CO 2 e Emissions in 2004 from IPCC AR4, WGIII, 2007

37. Climate Change: the Moral Imperative Growth of wealth in rich world through cheap coal, oil, gas No realization of damage caused, especially to poor countries Rich countries need to reduce damage & assist poor countries develop sustainably

38. Lag in the system due to time taken for oceans to warm, means A lot of climate change already built in - yet to be realized

39. The fierce urgency of NOW

40. Haven’t we first to tackle World Poverty, then Climate Change? NO, because unless we tackle Climate Change now, the plight of many of the poorest will be enormously worse

41. Hasn’t the Recession to have top priority, then Climate Change? NO, because there is much benefit in tackling both together

42. The Christian Imperative Care for the Earth Care for the poor Stewardship

43. Stewardship means Sharing

44. Are we good at Sharing? in our families - YES in our communities - YES in our national social programs - YES internationally with poorer nations - NO add Aid and Trade together, net flow of wealth from poor to rich WE HAVE TO LEARN TO SHARE

45. A Particular Challenge Rural Areas in Developing World need: Clean Water Sanitation Better farming methods Sustainable Energy

46. From everyone who has been given much, much will be demanded Luke 12 v 48

47. God is Creator Science is God’s science God is our Partner in Caring for the Whole of Creation

48. THE HOPE SET BEFORE US Unparalleled environmental crises God-given responsibilities for the Earth & for the poor Stewardship is partnership with God Church should seize the opportunity - world is desperate for leadership

49. Joseph to his brothers Genesis 45, 5-7 “ For two years now there has been famine in the land and for the next five years there will not be ploughing or reaping. Do not be…angry with yourselves for selling me here… God sent me ahead of you… to save lives by a great deliverance.”

50. Pharoah & Joseph had 7 YEARS So have we 2016

51. The Climate Crisis “ When written in Chinese the word crisis is composed of two characters, one represents danger and the other opportunity” John F Kennedy

52. Celtic cross Celtic Cross

53. Briefing Paper no 14, - 18 pages in pdf - can be downloaded from web site John Ray Initiative www.jri.org.uk