1. 1 Emergency Management and Risk Analysis for Hazardous Materials Transport Shashi Nambisan Professor of Civil Engineering Dept of Civil & Environmental Engineering Transportation Research Center UNLV Seminar at the Dept. of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering Center for Transportation Research & Education Iowa State University November 5, 2004

2. 2 Emergency Management Disasters / Emergencies –Natural –Man Made –Epidemics

3. 3 Natural Disasters Earthquakes Fires Floods and Dam failures Hurricanes / Tornadoes Land slides / Mudslides Volcanoes

4. 4 Man Made Disasters Accidental, Intentional –Chemical releases, spills –Explosions –Radioactive: power plant –Transportation: air, pipeline, road, rail, water Fire

5. 5 Emergency Management Phases Preparedness Response Recovery Mitigation Transportation is always a factor

6. 6 Analyses to Support Emergency Management Hazard Analysis Risk Assessment Vulnerability Assessment Criticality Analysis

7. 7 Hazard or Risk? Vulnerable or Critical??

8. 8

9. 9 Key Terms Susceptibility: How prone is a system to weaknesses Vulnerability: The susceptibility to losses due to exposure to hazard Reliability: The complement to vulnerability; describes adequate serviceability under the operating conditions encountered at a given time Resiliency: The ability to recover to normal or near normal state of operations

10. 10 Risk Assessment Risk Assessment = f (Event, Probability, Consequence) –Probability of event “i”, P i –Consequence of events, C i –Risk of one event, R i = P i * C i (?) Other Models (Non-linear, Exponential, … ) –Risk of all events =  R i ?

11. 11 Vulnerability Assessment Analysis of a system for weaknesses Probability of an attack on the weaknesses Factors –Ease of access –Ability and time required to “harden” the system / element

12. 12 Criticality Considerations Impacts on human life Environmental impacts Economic impacts Duration of impact

13. 13 Radioactive Materials Transport Nuclear Waste Policy Act (1982) & Amendments High Level Waste, Spent Nuclear Fuel Routing Issues –Public Safety –Emergency Preparedness

14. 14 Background Nuclear Power / HLRW –Origins 76 power plants 4 DOE facilities NWPA, NWPAA Investigate Yucca Mountain as the Only Potential Site Designated Yucca Mountain as THE repository site –Transport Modes: Highway Rail Combination of Both

15. 15 Us Reactor Sites With Hazmat Volumes

16. 16 Transport Related Issues Risk Analysis / Minimization –Population –Environment –Infrastructure –Emergency Response

17. 17 Population Resident Non-Resident / Visitor –Resort Corridor –Proximity to I-15 and Union Pacific RR Track –~100,000 hotel rooms Special Populations –Schools –Hospitals, Health Care Facilities –Assisted Living Facilities –Prisons

18. 18 Environmental Issues F&F? –Plants & Animals –Habitats –Foraging Patterns –Migration Patterns Endangered, Threatened, …

19. 19 Infrastructure Networks –Transport –Utility Structural Adequacy –Carriage Way (Pavement / Track Structure) –Bridges, Tunnels Functional Adequacy –Load –Geometrics (Clearances) Impacts: Operations, Life Cycle Costs System Safety System Redundancy

20. 20 Emergency Response: Performance Indicators (MOEs) Incident assessment time First responder time First qualified responder time Evacuation time Extent of impact –Population and classes of population –Area (square miles, number of blocks, towns, cities) –Environment Extent of “avoided” impact

21. 21 Risk Assessment Scenarios: –Routine Operations –Accident / Incident Consequences –Radiological –Non-radiological Identify all Events for Each Scenario Estimate P i and C i ; then R i Scenario Routine Accident / Incident Radiological Non-Rad.

22. 22 Risk Assessment Consequence, C Scenario Routine Accident / Incident Radiological Non-Rad. Probability, P Scenario Routine Accident / Incident Radiological Non-Rad.

23. 23

24. 24 Highway Access To Yucca Mountain

25. 25

26. 26 Infrastructure

27. 27 NEVADA POPULATION DENSITY

28. 28 Police and Sheriff Local Response Times Across Nevada

29. 29 Access Routes To Yucca Mtn Using Any Route

30. 30 Yucca Mtn Highway Routes Through Wendover, NV

31. 31 Yucca Mtn Highway Routes Through US 95/ Amargosa Valley

32. 32 Summary Emergency Preparedness Risk Assessment SNF & HLW Transport –Population –Environment –Infrastructure –Emergency Response Communications

33. 33