1. Passive Protection: A Failed Motorcycle Safety Paradigm The Motorcycle Riders Foundation Meeting of the minds ‘08 Thomas”Doc Ski” Wasileski, PhD

2. 1.Bikers are dying in greater numbers on America’s highways. 2.NHTSA’s push for stricter Helmet Laws is a false Panacea (Deadly Attitude) 3.Growing need to move away from the antiquated “passive-protection” safety Paradigm Crisis in America

3. U.S. New Unit Motorcycle Sales 1992 - 278,000 1999 - 546,000 1993 - 293,000 2000 - 710,000 1994 - 306,000 2001 - 850,000 1995 - 309,000 2002 - 936,000 1996 - 330,000 2003 - 1,001,000 1997 - 356,000 2004 - 1,063,000 1998 - 432,000 2005 - 1,116,000 Motorcycles Sales Increasing MC Aftermarket Industry = $XXX Annually

4. Problem Resolution (NHTSA style) Problem: –Motorcycle Fatalities continue to rise –Passive Protection not working for MC –Thirty Five years of “Survive-the-Crash- Mentality” –Bureacratic Survival Threat Solution: –Exaggerate The Issue –Protect the System-Blame the Victim Won’t use our helmet Alcohol Speed Cultural problem -Remove threat from the Mix -Regulate to reduce population

5. Motorcycles A Valuable Resource in America’s Transportation Network 1. Reduce Congestion 2. Contribute to the Economy 3. Reduce Fuel Consumption 4. Reduce Highway Wear 5. Recreational $ Resource

6. Antiquated and Obsolete Passive Protection Paradigm Hurt Studies : 1976-1981 –Traffic conditions Roadways Opposing Vehicle Geometry Motorcycle Design Congestion & Speed Limits –Rider & Driver Characteristics Age Distractions Personality Attributes

7. A New Motorcycle Safety Paradigm NHTSA’s Data Analysis and Reporting Independent Research With NHTSA Data Insurance Institute For Highway Safety NTSB Chairman Federal Funding Indications A Model to Consider Crash Research Awareness Programs and Evaluation Education Programs and Evaluation

8. Motorcycle Troubleshooting Process 1.Identification of relevant variables, and how they interact. (fuel, spark, compression) 2.Forming a hypothesis. (Is it a fuel problem? -electrical? – compression?). 3. Collection of specific data through a systematic process. (inspect fuel -electrical -compression). 4. Analysis of the data collected. (electric = no spark at plug – shocked by end of wire). 5. Forming conclusions according to the analysis (bad plug). 6. Applying the conclusions and evaluating the results (replace plug - engine works). 7. Sitting in the bar later, bragging to all about fixing your ride on the road.

9. Troubleshooting MC Safety 1. Identification of relevant variables – Crash Causation Study 2. Forming a hypothesis - Will a Motorist Awareness campaign reduce MC fatalities? 3. Implement study - collect data through a systematic process. (Radio (or) Billboard Campaign). 4. Analysis of the data collected. (compare pre/post-fatality rates). 5. Forming conclusions according to the analysis (significant reduction or not). 6. Applying the conclusions and evaluating the results (statewide program). 7. Dissemination and replication of the program.

10. Scientific Principles Valid and Reliable Variables Hypothesis Testing Process Appropriate use of Categorical Data Appropriate Conclusions for Data Analysis Replication Studies NHTSA’s Analysis Inappropriate Data Collection Data Mining Sensationalistic Reporting Guess-timations

11. VMT Low priority placed on collecting accurate MC travel data. Reporting motorcycle data was optional and several States chose not to code it. Since motorcycles are much less common than other types of vehicle travel, a proportionately larger effect would be needed to detect the same percent change. The limited motorcycle travel data affects the credibility and accuracy of analyses and hampers the ability to produce precise motorcycle statistics. Traffic Sensors don’t register motorcycles consistently. Motorcycles have different usage patterns during the week and different seasonal patterns.

12. TRB Traffic Monitoring Data: VMT Concerns Collection and Analysis Conference Mid-Atlantic States 02 May 2007 1. Motorcycles are a small, lightweight vehicle that can be difficult to detect with some sensors. 2. Coverage counts are typically collected year round due to the size of programs and number of counts required. Motorcycle traffic can be very seasonal and VMT estimates would be affected by the month counts were collected. 3. Coverage counts are typically collected Monday through Thursday. Motorcycle traffic can be highly recreational–weekend influenced, again impacting on the VMT estimate.

13. Summary of TRB Concerns… Because of the issues related to collecting the data and the comparatively low percentage of VMT for motorcycles as a vehicle class… a subtle collection program change could result in a significant, but misleading percentage change for motorcycle VMT.

14. Insurance Institute For Highway Safety 1."....we believe the current and historical license and registration data are not reliable measures of driver and vehicle exposure." 2. "The use of these data may lead to erroneous conclusions…." 3. “….large discrepancies between FHWA and state-reported data on motorcycle registrations…” 4. “Therefore, we have suspended use of these data until we can be assured of their accuracy."

15. Fatalities @ Registrations BAC Age Speeding Helmet Use Type of Crash Engine Size Single Vehicle Accidents Crashes Kill Bikers Crash Prevention Saves Lives Moon, NCOM 2005

16. Fatality Comparison Traffic Safety Facts (NHTSA) 2005 Highway Statistics 2005 (FHWA) Fatalities per 10,000 Registrations –Universal Mandatory Helmet Law -.075 –Modified or no Helmet Law -.07

18. NTSB Recommendations FHWA – Fixing MC data collection issues –VMT Conference NHTSA – Re-prioritizing NAMS –-NAMS Implementation Guide 50 States – Throw another Helmet at MC Safety Mark Rosenker (Chair NTSB) …we have reached practical limits in Crash-mitigation …we are entering a new era of Crash Prevention… ----------------------------------------------------

19. The New Silver Bullet! "Ultimately, almost all the factors that contribute to the problem can be reduced by new legislation, enforcement of existing laws - and mandated education. “ –James Champagne: Executive Director, Louisiana Highway Safety Commission

20. Possible Legislative Responses Mandatory Rider Education/Re-Education Graduated Licensing –Engine Size –Experience Stricter Protective Equipment Mandates Vehicle Design Mandates –Intelligent Transportation Systems Restricted Access for Motorcycles

21. Forming Partnerships Against Federalism 1. Strengthen Existing Political relations 2. Infiltrate Bureaucratic Agencies 3. Involve MC Dealers’ Organizations 4. Collaborate w/ National Conference of State Legislatures 5. Rigorous Research into Effectiveness of Alternative Interventions

22. SAFETEA-LU (PL 109-59 Section 20) $25 Million to Individual Qualifying States: –$100,000 annually –4 year program Crash Study –$3 million to pay for a study of motorcycle crashes. – funding will go to the Oklahoma Transp Center; Oklahoma State University.

23. Education Division Awareness Division Motorist Awareness Campaign Rider Safety Awareness Campaign Rider Education Awareness Campaign HS Driver Education Program Accident Scene Reporting Protocol Motorcyclist Education Program Classroom Instructional Module Rider Mentoring Program Individualized Mastery Learning Module Research Center for Motorcycle Safety and Crash Prevention Crash Research Center Research Design Data Collection Data Analysis Dissemination Fig 1: An example of the structure of the Center using issues from the current research and safety literature.

24. Motorcycle Safety Research Center –Research Design and Priorities –Data Collection and Analysis –Information Clearing House –Dissemination Center

25. Rider: Rider Education Programs: BRC & ERC Driver: HS MC Safety and Awareness Program Public: Motorcycle Awareness Campaign MC Culture Campaigns: Speed/Booze

26. Evaluation Methods Quantitative –Crash Studies and critical variables –Appropriate Statistical analysis Qualitative –Crash Involved Rider Interviews –Crash Prevention Rider Forums –Successful Crash Avoidance strategies Product –Education and Awareness Program Evaluations

27. Education Division Awareness Division Motorist Awareness Campaign Rider Safety Awareness Campaign Rider Education Awareness Campaign HS Driver Education Program Accident Scene Reporting Protocol Motorcyclist Education Program Classroom Instructional Module Rider Mentoring Program Individualized Mastery Learning Module Research Center for Motorcycle Safety and Crash Prevention Crash Research Center Research Design Data Collection Data Analysis Dissemination Fig 1: An example of the structure of the Center using issues from the current research and safety literature.