1. UNM BBER Data Users Conference November 14 th, 2013 NMDWS Industry & Occupation Projections

2. Why Do We Make Projections?

3. Who Uses Industry And Occupational Projections? -High school and college students, their parents and teachers to learn about the available jobs in their area, -Career changers, career development specialists and guidance counselors, -State workforce agencies to match employment with education and economic development efforts, -Policymakers to best invest tax dollars to training, -Education and training officials to make decisions about education and training policy, funding, and program offerings, -Other federal agencies, researchers, and academics use the projections to understand trends in the economy and labor market. How often are they updated? -The National projections are updated every two years. -New Mexico and several other states update the industry and occupational projections every year for all areas.

4. How Are Projections Developed? Nearly Every State and 4 Territories Develop Projections Using The Same Modeling Program

5. Inputs To The Models - NEW MEXICO QCEW INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT TIME SERIES

6. - NATIONAL EMPLOYMENT TIME SERIES

7. - NATIONAL VARIABLES Composite Index - 10 Leading Indicators Average Weekly Hours in Manufacturing Average Weekly Initial UI Claims Manufacturer's New orders - Cons. Goods Vendor Performance Manufacturer's New Orders - non-Defense cap goods Building Permits - New Housing S & P 500 Money Supply (M2) Consumer Expectations Light Vehicle Sales NAPM: US Mfg Composite Total Business Inventories CPI - Urban: All items Total Housing Starts - Private PPI - Finished Goods - Except Food Total Non-Farm Employment Total non-Farm Employment - Goods Producing Interest Rate Spread

8. - NEW MEXICO VARIABLES New Mexico Population New Mexico Employment NM Median Household Income NM Per Capita Income New Mexico Unemployment Rate NM Natural Gas Marketed Production NM Building Permits

9. Start By Projecting Industry Growth Long Term Industry Projections – are for a ten- year horizon. Current cycle is 2011-2021. Short Term Industry projections – are for a two-year horizon. Current cycle is 2012-2014.

10. Add All The Inputs To Projections Models…. Inputs plus variables go in here... …Industry Projections come out here! Project-o-matic with shift- share; time-series; and OLS regression models

11. New Mexico LTIP 2011 - 2021 New Mexico Industry Projections 2011 - 2021 20112021 Annual Industry EstimatedProjectedNumberGrowth TitleCodeEmployment ChangeRate Manufacturing31000029,56028,590-970-0.3% Ag, Forest, Fishing & Hunting11000010,3509,830-520-0.5% Management of Companies5500005,0705,2101400.3% Information51000013,45013,6602100.2% Utilities2200004,3704,6402700.6% Finance & Insurance52000021,00021,8008000.4% Real Estate, Rental & Leasing5300009,64010,9601,3301.3% Arts, Entertainment & Recreation71000012,54014,6002,0501.5% Transportation & Warehousing48000018,04020,2502,2001.2% Wholesale Trade42000021,00023,6102,6101.2% Other Services81000020,64023,5502,9201.3% Government90000090,10093,6603,5500.4% Professional, Scientific & Technical54000053,57058,7905,2300.9% Construction23000042,20047,5505,3501.2% Administrative & Support Services56000041,64048,0806,4401.4% Mining21000021,25028,2507,0002.9% Retail Trade44000090,210104,31014,1001.5% Accommodation & Food Service72000079,94097,12017,1802.0% Educational Services61000080,200100,34020,1402.3% Health Care & Social Assistance620000118,040146,19028,1602.2% Total All000000851,840971,680119,8401.3%

12. Employment Growth, 2011 - 2021

13. Growth Change, 2011 - 2021

14. Share % Of Each Industry 2011 2021

15. New Mexico STIP 2012 - 2014 New Mexico Industry Projections 2012-2014 20122014 Industry EstimatedProjectedNumberPercent TitleCodeEmployment Change Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting11000011,40010,600-800-7.0% Management of Companies5500004,970 00.0% Utilities2200004,4304,460300.7% Other Services (Except Government)81000021,18021,220400.2% Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation71000012,88013,0501701.3% Information51000013,50013,7202201.6% Wholesale Trade42000021,75022,0402901.3% Finance & Insurance52000021,15021,4703201.5% Manufacturing31000029,87030,2303601.2% Administrative & Support Services56000040,70041,0803800.9% Real Estate & Rental & Leasing53000010,05010,5104604.6% Professional, Scientific, & Technical54000052,42052,9305101.0% Transportation & Warehousing48000019,23019,7705402.8% Educational Services61000081,70082,6609601.2% Government90000090,19091,9001,7101.9% Construction23000042,90044,8301,9304.5% Retail Trade44000093,52095,4501,9302.1% Mining21000024,54027,1002,56010.4% Accommodation & Food Services72000082,31085,1202,8103.4% Health Care & Social Assistance620000121,040126,1805,1404.2% Total All Industries000000798,080819,27021,1902.7%

16. Industry Growth, 2012 - 2014

17. Growth Change, 2011 - 2021

18. Job Recovery Based On 2011-2021 Industry Projections

19. Now That We Have Industry Projections, What’s Next?

20. - Occupational Staffing Pattern The occupational staffing pattern for industries comes from the Occupation Employment Statistics program Voluntary survey of about 3,500 employers per year Collected over 3 years Sampled based on their industry code Added Bonus – Wages by Occupation

21. Put It All Together…. Industry projections and staffing pattern data go in here… …And occupational projections come out here! Project-o-matic matches the industry control total with the staffing pattern

22. New Mexico OP 2011 - 2021 New Mexico Occupational Projections 2011 - 2021 20112021 Annual Total Occupational EstimatedProjectedNumberGrowthReplacementAnnualPercent GroupCodeEmployment ChangeOpenings Change Management11000056,58059,0202,4403601,1601,5204.3% Business & Financial13000031,12035,1003,9804006201,02012.8% Computer & Mathematical15000014,66017,0702,41024028053016.4% Architecture & Engineering17000020,51021,8501,3301404505906.5% Life, Physical & Social Science19000013,54014,6501,1101104505608.2% Community & Social Service21000014,28016,9302,65027032058018.6% Legal2300007,5007,780280401301703.8% Education25000051,71064,48012,7701,2801,1502,43024.7% Arts, Design & Entertainment27000011,13012,0108801102904007.9% Healthcare Practitioners29000047,99054,7006,7106709601,63014.0% Healthcare Support31000025,94032,3106,3706403801,02024.6% Protective Services33000021,67024,3002,63026053079012.1% Food Prep & Service35000073,90089,68015,7801,5802,5904,17021.4% Building & Grounds Cleaning37000033,36037,3804,02040059099012.0% Personal Care & Service39000044,67059,39014,7101,4808102,29032.9% Sales41000081,00092,61011,6101,1702,5403,71014.3% Office Support430000124,920134,9109,9901,1402,6903,8308.0% Farm, Fishing & Forestry4500007,6507,630-2010230240-0.2% Construction & Extraction47000059,84068,3208,4808601,2302,09014.2% Maintenance & Repair49000033,02037,1204,1004107601,17012.4% Production51000031,37032,9501,5902306809105.1% Transportation & Material Moving53000045,48051,5106,0306101,1301,73013.2% Total All Occs000000851,840971,680119,84012,41019,96032,37014.1%

23. Employment Growth, 2011 - 2021 NM Occupational Projections 2011 - 2021 20112021 Annual Total Annual Occupational EstimatedProjectedNumberGrowthReplacementAnnualPercentGrowth TitlesCodeEmployment ChangeOpenings ChangeRate Person Care Aides39902119,70030,67010,9701,1001601,25055.7%4.5% Retail Sales41203128,58033,3104,7304708401,31016.6%1.5% Combination Food Prep & Servers35302114,36018,6704,31043040083030.0%2.7% Home Health Aides3110116,79010,7503,9604009048058.4%4.7% Waitstaff35303115,27018,6303,3603407601,10022.0%2.0% Cashiers41201119,70022,8103,1103108901,21015.8%1.5% Elementary School Teachers2520219,41012,1402,73027021048029.0%2.6% Registered Nurses29111116,89019,4802,59026031057015.3%1.4% Teachers Aides2590419,64011,9002,26023022044023.4%2.1% Customer Service Representatives43405112,77014,5801,81018036054014.2%1.3% Restaurant Cooks3520146,4108,1301,72017014031026.9%2.4% Bookkeepers43303114,09015,6001,51015016031010.7%1.0% Janitors37201112,31013,8201,51015023038012.3%1.2% Truck Drivers5330329,61011,0501,44014019034015.0%1.4% Retail Sales Supervisors41101111,87013,3101,44014028042012.1%1.2% Food Prep & Servers Supervisors3510126,0307,4001,37014013027022.6%2.1% General Office Clerks43906110,19011,5401,35014018032013.3%1.3% Stockers & Material Handlers5370629,10010,3901,30013029042014.2%1.3% Roustabouts4750712,8004,0701,2701306019045.2%3.8% Office Managers4310119,77010,9501,19012026038012.1%1.2% Total All Occs000000851,840971,680119,84012,41019,96032,37014.1%1.3%

24. Employment Projections By Education, 2011 - 2021 New Mexico Projections By Education Education Number Level20112021Change Less than high school250,110300,73050,620 High school diploma or equivalent356,010392,26036,250 Bachelor's degree130,770151,01020,240 Master's degree15,17018,6603,500 Postsecondary non-degree award34,30037,7303,430 Doctoral or professional degree20,47023,2702,800 Associate's degree39,35041,6902,340

25. Projections Are Based On All Things Being Equal And There Are No Shocks To The Economy…

26. www.jobs.state.nm.us/analyzer/default.asp Click these links for industry or occupational projections

27. QUESTIONS?

28. CONTACT INFORMATION: Bob Richards ECONOMIC RESEARCH & ANALYSIS BUREAU DEPARTMENT OF WORKFORCE SOLUTIONS 383-2732 richardr@bls.gov