1. Markus Amann, Janusz Cofala, Zbigniew Klimont, Wilfried Winiwarter, Wolfgang Schöpp, Frantisek Gyarfas, Imrich Bertok Draft Baseline Scenarios for CAFE Task Force for Integrated Assessment Modelling Amiens, May 10-12, 2004

2. Integrated assessment in CAFE Energy/agriculture projections Emissions Emission control options Atmospheric dispersion Health and environmental impacts Costs Environmental targets OPTIMIZATION Driving forces BASELINE PROJECTION

3. Preparation of input data

4. Bilateral consultations Main issues Energy projections: Discrepancies of year 2000 energy statistics Comments on PRIMES projections –Obvious discrepancies –Differences in expectations Emission calculations: Review of year 2000 emission inventory Penetration rates of control measures Emission control potential for SO 2, NO x, VOC, NH 3, PM10/2.5

5. Bilateral consultations (1) Country or organization Consultation meeting date No of experts Comments receivedComments PRIMES Energy scenario Agr. scen Denmark-- 16 Jan 04 -YY Latvia-- 08 Oct 03 --Y EUROPIA2-3 Oct 03205 Dec 03 – 23 Mar 04- EURELECTRIC30-31 Oct 034 - - Hungary14 Nov 031 - --- Germany20-21 Nov 034 19 Dec 03 - 23 Mar 04 Y-- Czech Republic25 Nov 033 19 Dec - 27 Feb, 07Apr 04 Y-Y ACEA12 Dec 0310 - - Italy15-16 Dec 032 19 Jan, 15 Feb - 02 Apr 04 YY- France8-9 Jan 045 31 Mar 04 - 2-15 Apr 04 YY- Sweden22-23 Jan 043 29 Jan, 09 Mar - 04 Apr 04 YYY UK26-28 Jan 048 19 Feb, 03 Mar - 15 Mar, 06 Apr 04 Y-Y Spain4-5 Feb 045 30 Mar 04 - 13 Apr 04 Y-- Red numbers indicate delivery after deadline

6. Bilateral consultations (2) Country or organization Consultation meeting date No of experts Comments receivedComments PRIMES Energy scenario Agr.. scen Portugal12-13 Feb 045 27 Feb, 03,05 Mar - 08 Apr 04 YYY Belgium16-17 Feb 047 08 Mar - 2-13 Apr, 06 Apr 04 YY- Austria23 Feb 0411 24 Feb - 18,19 Mar, 19 Apr 04 --Y Ireland4-5/19 Mar 042 12,19 Mar 04 Y-Y ESVOC8 Mar 043 - -- Finland8-9 Mar 043 19,25 Mar 04 - 19 Apr 04 Y(Y)- Lithuania10 Mar 042 24 Mar 04 Y-- Estonia12 Mar 042 17 Mar 04 --- Slovakia15 Mar 043 22 Mar 04 Y-- Poland17-18 Mar 042 17,18 Mar 04 - 07 Apr 04 --- Slovenia22 Mar 042 24,29 Mar 04 - 01, 08 Apr 04 -YY Netherlands25-26 Mar 044 16 Mar 04 - 02,08,18 Apr 04 Y-Y 19 + 4942114710 Red numbers indicate delivery after deadline

7. CAFE energy baseline projections Two draft baseline projections – available –include PRIMES numbers plus additional assumptions from national submissions (e.g., share of LDTs in freight transport, fuel use by off-road vehicles and maritime activities, corrections for fuel used outside EMEP area) National projections - will be implemented by June –Currently available for eight countries, some of them need to be completed or re-formatted Revised PRIMES projection (with climate) by June

8. Approach for baseline emission projections Match nationally reported emission inventories for 2000 –Problem: for some countries important differences between subsequent submissions (e.g., to CLRTAP, NEC, new national total different by > 10%) –Values reported to CLRTAP plus changes documented during consultations taken into account Extrapolate penetration rates of control measures up to 2020 –Takes international and national legislation into account –Done together with national teams to also include “current practices”

9. Transport emissions - approach (1) Exhaust emissions – fuel use from PRIMES Non-exhaust emissions – veh-km (derived from fuel use) Turnover of fleet taken from national estimates National emission factors applied where available (Auto/Oil estimates modified during consultations) Efficiencies of EURO-stages based on Auto/Oil info plus other sources (TREMOD, Austrian model, RICARDO - for EURO 5/6)

10. Transport emissions - approach (2) Impact of cycle-beating for trucks on NO x considered (ARTEMIS Project, report by TU Graz, 2003), generates inconsistencies with some national 2000 emission inventories Other findings of ARTEMIS not included Data for off-road sources from EGTEI Consistency with TREMOVE not yet established Further calibration and updates is needed when new data become available

11. Next steps June 2004 Incorporation of national scenarios Feedbacks on the 2 draft emission scenarios Revised PRIMES scenario (with climate measures) taking into account country comments September 2004 First set of policy scenarios

12. Draft baseline emission projections

13. Energy projections

14. Energy use per fuel EU-15 [PJ] No further climate measures With climate measures Solid fuelsLiquid fuelsNatural gasRenewableNuclearDifference to "no further climate measures"

15. Energy use per fuel New Member States [PJ] No further climate measures With climate measures Solid fuelsLiquid fuelsNatural gasRenewableNuclearDifference to "no further climate measures"

16. Energy use per sector EU-15 [PJ] Power generationIndustryHouseholdsTransportNon-energy No further climate measures With climate measures Difference to "no further climate measures"

17. Energy use per sector New Member States [PJ] Power generationIndustryHouseholdsTransportNon-energy No further climate measures With climate measures Difference to "no further climate measures"

18. Agricultural projections

19. Animal numbers (pre-CAP reform), relative to 2000 CattlePigsChickenOther animals EU-15 New Member States

20. SO 2 emissions

21. Comparison of 2000 SO 2 inventories RAINS vs. national estimates

22. SO 2 emissions Measures: –Large Combustion Plant Directive –S Content of Liquid Fuels Directive –Directives on quality of petrol and diesel fuels –IPPC legislation on process sources –National legislation and national practices (if stricter)

23. SO 2 emissions by fuel EU-15 [kt] 200520102015 Solid fuelsLiquid fuelsNatural gasProcess emissions"Climate bonus" x---------------- NEC Ceiling 3850 kt x--------------- No further climate measures With climate measures

24. SO 2 emissions by fuel New Member States [kt] 200520102015 Solid fuelsLiquid fuelsNatural gasProcess emissions"Climate bonus" x---------------- NEC Ceiling 2693 kt x---------------- No further climate measures With climate measures

25. SO 2 emissions by sector EU-15 [kt] x---------------- NEC Ceiling 3850 kt x---------------- Power generationIndustryHouseholdsTransportProcess emissions"Climate bonus" No further climate measures With climate measures

26. SO 2 emissions by sector New Member States [kt] Power generationIndustryHouseholdsTransportProcess emissions"Climate bonus" x---------------- NEC Ceiling 2693 kt x---------------- No further climate measures With climate measures

27. Projected SO 2 emissions in 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings, EU-15

28. Projected SO 2 emissions in 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings, NMS

29. NO x emissions

30. Comparison of 2000 NO x inventories RAINS vs. national estimates

31. NO x emissions Assumed measures: –LCP Directive –Auto/Oil EURO standards –Standards for motorcycles and mopeds –Legislation on non-road mobile machinery –Implementation failure of EURO-II and III for HDT –IPPC legislation on process sources –National legislation and national practices (if stricter)

32. NO x emissions by fuel EU-15 [kt] 200520102015 Solid fuelsLiquid fuelsNatural gasProcess emissions"Climate bonus" x---------------- x---------------- NEC Ceiling 6519 kt No further climate measures With climate measures

33. NO x emissions by fuel New Member States [kt] 200520102015 Solid fuelsLiquid fuelsNatural gasProcess emissions"Climate bonus" x----------------x---------------- NEC Ceiling 1800 kt No further climate measures With climate measures

34. NO x emissions by sector EU-15 [kt] x--------------- Power generationIndustryHouseholdsTransportProcess emissions"Climate bonus" x---------------- NEC Ceiling 6519 kt No further climate measures With climate measures

35. NO x emissions by sector New Member States [kt] Power generationIndustryHouseholdsTransportProcess emissions"Climate bonus" x---------------- NEC Ceiling 1800 ktx---------------- No further climate measures With climate measures

36. Projected NO x emissions in 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings, EU-15

37. Projected NO x emissions in 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings, NMS

38. Emissions from shipping [% of land-based EU-25 emissions]

39. VOC emissions

40. Comparison of 2000 VOC inventories RAINS vs. national estimates

41. VOC emissions Assumed measures: –Stage I Directive –Directive 91/441 (carbon canisters) –Auto/Oil EURO standards –Fuel Directive (RVP of fuels) –Solvents Directive –Product Directive (paints) –National legislation, e.g., Stage II

42. VOC emissions EU-15 [kt] x--------------- NEC Ceiling 6510kt 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 20002005201020152020 Stationary combustionMobile sourcesFuel extraction+distributionIndustrial processesSolvents

43. VOC emissions New Member States [kt] x--------------- NEC Ceiling 1640 kt

44. Projected VOC emissions in 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings, EU-15

45. Projected VOC emissions in 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings, NMS

46. NH 3 emissions

47. Comparison of 2000 NH 3 inventories RAINS vs. national estimates

48. NH 3 emissions Assumed measures: –No EU-wide legislation –National legislations –Current practice

49. NH 3 emissions EU-15 [kt] x--------------- NEC Ceiling 3310 kt

50. NH 3 emissions New Member States [kt] x--------------- NEC Ceiling 866 kt

51. Projected NH 3 emissions in 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings, EU-15

52. Projected NH 3 emissions in 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings, NMS

53. PM10 emissions

54. Comparison of 2000 PM10 inventories RAINS vs. national estimates

55. Primary PM10 emissions by fuel EU-15 [kt] Coal, oilWoodDiesel, gasolineOther"Climate bonus" No further climate measures With climate measures

56. Primary PM10 emissions by fuel New Member States [kt] Coal, oilWoodDiesel, gasolineOther"Climate bonus" No further climate measures With climate measures

57. Primary PM10 emissions by sector EU-15 [kt] Power generationIndustryHouseholdsTransportProcess emissionsWaste+agriculture No further climate measures With climate measures

58. Primary PM10 emissions by sector New Member States [kt] Power generationIndustryHouseholdsTransportProcess emissionsWaste+agriculture No further climate measures With climate measures 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 20002005201020152020 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 20002005201020152020

59. PM2.5 emissions

60. Comparison of 2000 PM2.5 inventories RAINS vs. national estimates

61. PM10 emissions Assumed measures: –LCP Directive –Auto/Oil EURO standards –Standards for motorcycles and mopeds –Legislation on non-road mobile machinery –IPPC legislation on process sources –National legislation and national practices (if stricter)

62. Primary PM2.5 emissions by fuel EU-15 [kt] Coal, oilWoodDiesel, gasolineOther"Climate bonus" No further climate measures With climate measures

63. Primary PM2.5 emissions by fuel New Member States [kt] Coal, oilWoodDiesel, gasolineOther"Climate bonus" No further climate measures With climate measures

64. Primary PM2.5 emissions by sector EU-15 [kt] Power generationIndustryHouseholdsTransportProcess emissionsWaste+agriculture No further climate measures With climate measures

65. Primary PM2.5 emissions by sector New Member States [kt] Power generationIndustryHouseholdsTransportProcess emissionsWaste+agriculture No further climate measures With climate measures

66. Draft conclusions General downwards trend in emissions caused by –Legislation on transport emissions –Further penetration of natural gas –Large Combustion Plant Directive Larger improvements in New Member States Caveats: –National energy projections might differ from PRIMES –Further validation of emission estimates necessary –More information on effects of transport emission legislation required

68. Air quality impacts Provisional estimates!

69. PM2.5 Contribution from anthropogenic emissions excluding secondary organic aerosols No natural sources (soil, sea salt, biogenic, etc.) included! Rural concentrations Annual mean Average 1999 & 2003 meteorology

70. Anthropogenic contribution to PM2.5 2000 Rural concentrations annual mean [µg/m 3 ] from known anthropogenic sources excluding sec. org. aerosols Emissions for 2000 Average meteorology for 1999 and 2003 EMEP Eulerian model

71. Anthropogenic contribution to PM2.5 2000 2010 2020 Rural concentrations, annual mean [µg/m3] from known anthropogenic sources excluding sec. org. aerosols Emissions for 2020, no further climate measures, Average meteorology for 1999 and 2003, EMEP Eulerian model

72. Inter-annual meteorological variability Anthropogenic contribution to PM2.5 2003 average 1999 Rural concentrations, annual mean [µg/m3] from known anthropogenic sources excluding sec. org. aerosols Emissions for 2000, EMEP Eulerian model

73. Loss in life expectancy

74. Loss in life expectancy due to PM2.5 Inter-annual meteorological variability 2003 Mean 1999 Loss in average life expectancy (days) Due to identified anthropogenic PM2.5 Emissions of 2000

75. Loss in life expectancy Loss in average life expectancy due to identified anthropogenic PM2.5 (days) Mean meteorology 2000 2010 2020

76. PM10 Contribution from anthropogenic emissions excluding secondary organic aerosols No natural sources (soil, sea salt, etc.) included! Rural concentrations Annual mean Average 1999 & 2003 meteorology

77. Anthropogenic contribution to PM10 2000 Rural concentrations annual mean [µg/m 3 ] from known anthropogenic sources excluding sec. org. aerosols Emissions for 2000 Average meteorology for 1999 and 2003 EMEP Eulerian model

78. Anthropogenic contribution to PM10 2000 2010 2020 Rural concentrations, annual mean [µg/m3] from known anthropogenic sources excluding sec. org. aerosols Emissions for the “no further climate measures” scenario Average meteorology for 1999 and 2003

79. Ozone AOT40 Six months (April-September) Average 1999 & 2003 meteorology

80. AOT40 2000 AOT40 (ppm.hours) Emissions for 2000 Average 1999 & 2003 meteorology EMEP/MSC-W

81. AOT40 2000 2010 2020 Six months AOT40 (forests) [ppm.hours] Emissions for the “no further climate measures” scenario Average meteorology for 1999 and 2003

82. Ozone AOT60 Six months (April-September) Average 1999 & 2003 meteorology

83. AOT60 (ppm.hours) 2000 2010 2020 Mean meteorology, April-September

84. Acidification of forest soils Percentage of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads Using ecosystem-specific deposition! Based on preliminary critical loads data! Average 1999 & 2003 meteorology

85. Excess of forest critical loads 2000, Provisional estimates! Percentage of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads Emissions for 2000 Using ecosystem-specific deposition! Based on preliminary critical loads data! Average 1999 & 2003 meteorology EMEP/MSC-W & CCE

86. Excess of forest critical loads Percentage of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition, mean meteorology 2000 2010 2020