1. Intended impact/theory of change Sociology 96j: Research for Nonprofits March 14, 2006

2. 1 Caveats to George: Education -BS mechanical engineering WPI -MBA, MIT Sloan School of Management F/T Experience -Manufacturing engineer (Varian) -For-profit Strategy consultant (Arthur D. Little) -Non-profit Strategy consultant (Bridgespan) Independent consulting -Citizen Schools -City Year -New Sector Alliance -Year Up Board of Directors -Bottom Line -ESAC -MIT Sloan Nonprofit Internship Fund “Novice” practitioner Engaged participant/observer on case work (3-4 cases) Process facilitator for Bottom Line and to a lesser extent, ESAC General backgroundII/ToC expertise Jack of all trades, master of none; Novice practitioner of II/ToC

3. 2 Objectives and agenda Introduce the concept of II/ToCIntroduction to nonprofit strategy Overview of II/ToC Illustrate the application of II/ToCAn example: CollegeBoston General thoughts/reflections on II/ToC Begin to apply II/ToC concepts in the context of your project Making it practical Q&A ObjectivesAgenda

4. 3 Introduction to nonprofit strategy: The philosophical lens Objective: Transform scarce resources into maximum social impact -“How many kids can we save”, not “if we can save just one kid, it’s all worth it” -“Can’t do everything… social needs are endless” -“Everything isn’t equally worth doing… different actions have differential impact” Therefore, to maximize social impact, one must align: -The mission (what do we care about?) -The need (what do the people we serve require?) -Capabilities (what are we good at?) -Resources (what assets do we have?) The applicability and utility of this “lens” varies by individual/organization -ESAC versus Bottom Line Is this the right lens for you and your organization?

5. 4 Introduction to nonprofit strategy: The components Intended Impact Program/ Service Focus Theory of Change Organization Mission Economics Performance metrics Reason for being How do you make impact happen? What is the economic and financial model to deliver the strategy? What processes, skills, staffing, systems, and structure are needed? What are you trying to accomplish and for whom? -Beneficiaries -Benefits -Timeframe -Accountability What services do you currently provide? What new services should you offer? How do you know you’re achieving the desired results? How can you measure performance in a way that helps the organization to make the appropriate decisions?

6. 5 Overview of II/ToC DefinitionIntended impact provides a concrete articulation of what an organization is trying to achieve and for which it wants to hold itself accountable Theory of change reflects an organization’s belief about how that impact happens Key questions Who are our beneficiaries? What benefits do our programs create? How do we define success? What won’t we do? What would make us obsolete? What is the cause-and-effect logic that gets us from our resources (people and dollars) to impact? Where are the gaps or leaps of faith in this logic chain? What are the most important elements of our programs’ content and structure? What assumptions led us to choose these particular program elements? Are there other ways in which we could achieve the desired outcomes? What is the minimum length of time our beneficiaries need to be engaged to achieve these outcomes? What else do our beneficiaries need to achieve these outcomes? Intended impactTheory of change

7. 6 An example: CollegeBoston Our mission: -To build better communities by helping disadvantaged students get in to college, graduate from college and go far in life Our core beliefs: -Higher educational attainment is critical to the socio-economic success of individuals, families and communities -A focus on both college access (get in) and success (graduate from) is necessary to significantly increase the numbers of disadvantaged students succeeding in higher education and beyond (go far) Our students: -Urban youth in at-risk socio-economic groups (low income and/or first-in- family/first-in-generation to attend college) from the Boston area Our programs: -CollegeBoston College Access Program counselors provide students with full service along the entire spectrum of the college application process -The College Success Program supports the most at-risk students from the high school-to-college transition through to graduation

8. 7 An example: CollegeBoston: II/ToC in brief Initial outcomes (Get in) Interim outcomes (Graduate) L/T outcomes (Go far) Individual students High school graduates Demonstrated interest in attending college College Access program (Get in) College Success program (Graduate) Get in to at least one college that matches the student’s academic, financial and career needs Graduate from an accredited college or university with an AA or BA within 6 years Higher income/savings Greater employment & working conditions Greater mobility Improved health/life expectancy Better consumer decision- making Increased personal status More hobby/leisure time Families From low-income families First in family to attend college Siblings more likely to access and succeed in college Improved quality of life for offspring Children more likely to access and succeed in college Communities Residing in urban inner-city communities BL success stories encourage other students to aspire to, access and succeed in higher education Increased tax revenues Greater productivity Increased consumption Increased workforce flexibility Decreased reliance on government support Reduced crime rate Increased charitable giving, community service and social engagement/ awareness For this population… …CollegeBoston provides these programs… …To help disadvantaged students get in to college, graduate from college and go far in life Outcomes for which CollegeBoston will hold itself directly accountable Outcomes CollegeBoston believes will occur due to its programs but which CollegeBoston will not actively track and verify

9. 8 General thoughts/reflections on II/ToC: Nonprofit strategy, and in particular II/ToC is hard -Different stakeholders often have “nuanced differences” with regard to II/ToC -Often involves emotional, values-driven decisions which data helps frame but does not answer -Meaningful, high quality data is hard to come by The process is intensive and requires significant effort and resources over sustained periods of time -Generally requires ~2 months (out of a 6 month case) and significant manager/partner time It’s worth it – a well-defined intended impact/theory of change will drive the program focus, organizational structure, economics and performance measurement -Focus on the most important activities -Understand how to measure success or failure -Know when to say no

10. 9 Making it practical Guiding an organization through an II/ToC is likely beyond your scope -Requires significant time and effort on the part of the facilitator and the senior leadership of the organization -Requires deep understanding of the non-profit However, even a high level understanding (e.g., a version of slide 7) can be very insightful in guiding analyses and recommendations Use the questions (slide 5 and/or “Zeroing in on Impact”)!