1. HKU CONVOCATION HONG KONG 2030 FORUM ON POPULATION: Fertility Decline, Mobility and Diversity by Wong Siu-lun Centre of Asian Studies The University of Hong Kong 21 February 2004

2. HONG KONG’S DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION AND LABOUR NEEDS  Fertility decline — extremely low total fertility rate of 927 children per 1,000 women in 2001  Long life expectancy — projected to reach 82 for men and 88 for women in 2031  Aging — a quarter of the population expected to be aged 65 or above by 2031  Shrinking workforce — prime working age population declines  Rapid demographic transition — compressed in less than 50 years

4. Total Fertility Rates of Hong Kong and Selected Low Fertility Economies, 2000 Hong Kong1,020 Singapore1,600 Japan1,340* Germany1,360* Denmark1,770 Netherlands1,720 Finland1,730 Sweden1,540 United Kingdom1,640 Australia1,750* Note: * 1999 figure Source: Census and Statistics Department, Hong Kong Population Projections 2002-2031, p. 53.

8.  Policy response in 2003  Formulated by task force head by Chief Secretary  Not the specific responsibility of any bureau or department

9. POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS — The One Way Permit Scheme — Training and Other Needs of New Arrivals — Education and Manpower Policy — Admission of Mainland Professionals and Talent — Investment Immigrants — Policies Impacting on Childbirth — Elderly Policy — Growing Transient Population: Foreign Domestic Helpers — Eligibility for Public Benefits — Portability of Benefits — Need for Regular Review

10. HONG KONG: A HUB FOR LABOUR MIGRATION  Hong Kong has long been a city of migrants  Emigration of Chinese from Hong Kong began as soon as the territory became a British colony in 1842  By 1939, over 6 million Chinese left Hong Kong to go to every part of the world  Main destinations: United States; Australia; Canada; South America and West Indies; Peru & Cuba; Dutch Possessions; Strait Settlements; Hawaii & Mauritius; British North Borneo; South Africa (E. Sinn 1995 )  Hong Kong: key economic centre for the overseas Chinese  Intense traffic in people, remittances and information

11. INFLOW OF POPULATION  Illegal immigrants from the Chinese mainland — 150,089 in 1980; abolition of ‘touch base policy’; decreased to 12,170 in 1999.  Legal immigrants from the Chinese mainland — 150 a day or 55,000 per year  Skilled immigrants — about 16,700 foreign professional admitted each year from 1997 to 2001; only 268 mainland professionals admitted from 2001 to 2002.  Foreign domestic workers — 21,517 in 1982; 237,104 in 2002.  Imported workers — 1,200 admitted under supplementary labour scheme  Increased use of Hong Kong as transit port to other countries (Chin Kong 2003)

14. Effect of Migration on Population Projection Dependency Ratio and Median Age of the Projected Population (without Migration) of Hong Kong 2001-2016 Year19962001200620112016 Child Dependency Elderly Dependency Total Dependency 266 141 407 234 (228) 158 (149) 392 (377) 212 (211) 167 (153) 379 (364) 194 (197) 173 (155) 366 (351) 195 (200) 216 (184) 412 (384) Median Age3436.7 (37)39.9 (39)42.4 (40)44.5 (41) Note: Numbers shown in the brackets represent the values estimated by the Census and Statistics Department based on existing immigration policy. Source: Paul S F Yip & Joseph Lee (2000)

15. Mobility and Dynamism  Migration and entrepreneurship  Inflow of Shanghai entrepreneurs to Hong Kong in 1940s (Wong 1988)  Small industrial entrepreneurs in 1970s and 1980s were mostly immigrants  Decreased immigration and declining entrepreneurship?  SME in Japan: Regeneration and creation of entrepreneurial society

16. Place of Birth of Entrepreneurs PlaceEntrepreneurs 1978(%) Population 1981(%) Entrepreneurs 1987(%) Hong Kong Chinese Mainland Other Areas 20.2 77.3 2.4 57.2 39.6 3.2 31.4 63.9 4.7 Total100 Source: 1978 and 1987 SMI Surveys; Hong Kong 1981 Census, Vol. 2, pp. 28-29

18. Diversity and Cosmopolitanism  2001 Population Census — only 5% non-ethnic Chinese  This 5% comprised mainly of Filipinos, Indonesians and nationals of Southeast Asian origin  95% ethnic Chinese — diverse migration experience  Not quite multi-ethnic, but rather multi-cultural  Linkages to overseas Chinese communities — to be strengthened?  Increased mobility — who is a Hong Konger?  Citizenship — rights and obligations; tax revenue

19. Thank You