1. Safety Initiatives Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)
John Hickey, Director Aircraft Certification Service, AIR-1

2. Agenda Status and Progress to Date Background
Runway Incursions
Current Annual Safety Plan
Business Model
International Collaboration
Outreach Efforts
Prioritized Safety Research
CAST Future Direction

3. In the U.S., our focus was set by the White House Commission on Aviation Safety
1.1 Government and industry should establish a national goal to reduce the aviation fatal accident rate by a factor of five within ten years and conduct safety research to support that goal
1.2 The FAA should develop standards for continuous safety improvement, and should target its regulatory resources based on performance against those standards 2

4. The National Civil Aviation Review Commission (NCARC) on Aviation Safety Provided Additional Direction
FAA and the aviation industry must develop a strategic plan to improve safety, with specific priorities based on objective, quantitative analysis of safety information and data
Government should expand on their programs to improve aviation safety in other parts of the world 3

5. Industry Government Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)
AIA
Airbus
ALPA
APA
ATA
NACA
Boeing
P&W*
RAA
FSF
IATA
AAPA
ATAC
APFA
DOD
FAA
Aircraft Certification
Flight Standards
System Safety
Air Traffic Operations
Research
NASA
ICAO
JAA
TCC
NATCA
Commercial Aviation
Safety Team
(CAST)
*Representing GE and RR
20th Annual JAA/FAA International Conference 5

6. CAST Goals
Reduce the U.S. commercial aviation fatal accident rate by 80% by 2007
Work together with airlines, JAA, ICAO, IATA, FSF, IFALPA, other international organizations and appropriate regulatory/ government authorities to reduce worldwide commercial aviation fatal accident rate

7. Joint Implementation Measurement Data Analysis Team (JIMDAT)
Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)
CAST
Joint Safety
Analysis Teams (JSAT)
Data analyses
Joint Safety
Implementation
Teams (JSIT)
Safety enhancement development
Master safety plan
Enhancement effectiveness
Future areas of study
Joint Implementation Measurement Data Analysis Team (JIMDAT)
20th Annual JAA/FAA International Conference 7

8. Excluding all security events
20th Annual JAA/FAA International Conference 8

9. Integrated Strategic Safety Plan
Contains 46 safety enhancements optimized to include those actions with the best effectiveness vs. resource relationships
21 complete/25 committed and underway
Initially combines short-term “liveware”-based enhancements with transition to design change enhancements long term
Foundation for U.S-driven continuous improvements in worldwide aviation safety

10. Runway Incursions
Identified as an important contributor to risk in the initial Safer Skies agenda
CAST chartered analysis (JSAT) and implementation (JSIT) teams to study Runway Incursions and develop Safety Enhancements to address them
10 of the 46 Safety Enhancements on the Integrated Strategic Safety Plan relate to Runway Incursions
2 of the 10 R&D Projects and Studies relate to Runway Incursions

11. Completed Safety Enhancements
Terrain avoidance warning system (TAWS)
CFIT Standard Operating Procedures
Precision approach implementation (PAI) Vertical Angles – Increase constant angle approaches
Minimum Safe Altitude Warning (MSAW) Systems
Proactive Safety Programs (FOQA + ASAP)
CFIT Crew Resource Management (CRM) training
CFIT Prevention training
Air Traffic Controller CFIT training
PAI-VGSI at runway ends
PAI-DME at airports
RI SOPs – Ground Operations (General Aviation)
RI SOPs - Tow tug operators

12. Completed Safety Enhancements (cont’d)
Safety Culture
Industry will include essential safety information in the appropriate airline manuals (i.e., training programs)
FAA inspectors will utilize the Aircraft Flight Manual (AFM) database
CEO and Director of Safety (DOS) more visible
Maintenance Procedures
FAA published guidance on:
Servicing landing struts
Surveillance of maintenance subcontractors
Minimum Equipment List (MEL) (covers recurring maintenance events)
Air Carriers’ Directors of Safety completed internal surveys to verify guidance was being followed
ALAR Flight crew training
Uncontained Engine Failures
FAA issued Airworthiness Directives requiring the Inspection of High-Energy Rotating Parts
20th Annual JAA/FAA International Conference 12

13. Committed Plan Elements
Policies and Procedures
Industry will develop/implement Risk Management tools
Industry will develop a process to inform personnel/flight crew of critical safety information
Industry will develop a process to enhance flight crew proficiency
FAA/Industry will develop standard operating procedures for loss of control related accidents
Aircraft Design
FAA will issue guidance on Continuing Airworthiness
FAA will issue guidance on Critical System Maintenance
FAA will amend guidance to include recommendations surrounding autoflight designs for new type designs
Manufacturers will implement Flight Deck Equipment Upgrades for new type designs (i.e. interactive checklists)
FAA/JAA will amend guidance to include recommendations regarding Displays and Alerting Systems for new designs
Manufacturers agree to install Vertical Situation Displays in new aircraft
FAA/JAA will issue amended icing certification criteria for criteria for new airplane designs not equipped with evaporative systems
Manufacturers agree to install Flight Envelope Protection in new type designs
20th Annual JAA/FAA International Conference

14. Committed Plan Elements (cont.)
Flight Crew Training
Advanced Maneuvers Training will be provided by all operators
Industry will incorporate a human factors-related training guide into training programs and SOPs
Precision approach implementation (PAI)
FAA and Industry will develop:
Recommended procedures, displays and training that will enable pilots of commercial aircraft to fly a stabilized vertical path to the runway for all instrument approaches
Criteria and guidance for reduced landing minima
Laterally and vertical guided approach paths to runway ends not served by Instrument Landing System (ILS)
20th Annual JAA/FAA International Conference

15. Committed Plan Elements (cont.)
Runway Incursions -
Enhanced airport surveillance equipment
Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs)
Ground operations (Commercial Aviation)
Vehicle operators
ATC
Clearance readback requirements
Training –
Pilots
Enhanced Tower Controller training
CRM

16. Resource Cost vs. Risk Reduction
80%
10000
APPROVED PLAN
Risk Reduction
9000
70%
Total Cost in $ (Millions)
8000
60%
7000
50%
6000
Risk Eliminated by Safety Enhancements
40%
Resource Cost ($ Millions)
5000
2007
2020
4000
30%
3000
20%
2000
10%
1000 0%
Completed
Completed + Plan (2007 Implementation Level)
Completed + Plan (2020 Implementation Level)
All JSIT Proposed Enhancements (2020 Implementation Level)
CAST-050

17. Safety Plan Benefits
Prediction of a 64% risk reduction that also results in approximately $540 million annual savings to the industry
Current accident cost per flight is approximately $90 cycle
Implementation of the 46 selected safety enhancements reduces this cost by $58 per flight cycle
Safety is good for business

18. Part 121 Aviation Industry Cost Due to Fatal/Hull Loss Accidents
100
Historic cost of accidents/flt. cyc 80
Savings ~ $58/Flt. Cyc Or
~ $540 Million Dollars/Yr.
Dollars/Flt. Cyc 60
64 % Risk reduction 40 20
Cost of Accident fatalities following implementation of the CAST 2007 levels
2002
2007

19. Hull Loss & Fatal Accidents
Portion of Total Fatality Risk Mitigated by the CAST Plan
(2007 Implementation Values) 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Total
LOC Flt
CFIT
Fire/Explosion
Runway Collision
LOC GND
Midair
Crew Inc
Eng-UCEF
Sys-Comp
Turbulence
Evac
Portion of Risk
Risk Eliminated
Risk Remaining
CAST Fatal/Hull Loss Dataset –
Security events excluded.
20th Annual JAA/FAA International Conference

20. Safety Metrics
Purpose: Measure to determine if program is resulting in desired risk reduction. Identify issues needing more detailed analysis if desired result is not occurring
Assumption: Measurement of accident rate is not effective means of identifying program success
Concentrate on using reporting systems currently in existence (ex: FOQA, Partnership programs, SDR, NAOMS, etc.)
Direct link is through the problem statements identified by data analysis
Identify events that reflect the problem
Identify available method for measuring the event frequency
Establish event baseline
Identify trend

21. Safety Metrics Examples
Safety Enhancement
Indicator
1. Terrain Avoidance Warning System (TAWS)
Reduction in MSAW alerts
Reduction in valid GPWS alerts (CFIT)
4. CFIT PAI-Vertical Angles (7-11,18)
Percentage of operators who have adopted constant angle approaches
Continuous reduction in selected metrics
21. ALAR Flight Deck Equipment Upgrades – New Type Designs (1-3)
Reduction in number of inadvertent descents below decision height
23. ALAR Flight Crew Training – one project
Continuous reduction in the number of busted approach gates
Continuous reduction in altitude busts
27. LOC Policies and Procedures – Risk Assessments and Management – one project
Percentage of operators/manufacturers with risk assessment/management processes in place
Continuous reduction in the number of operations with recurring intermittent failures in flight critical systems
Percentage of operators with a process to include safety information in manuals
20th Annual JAA/FAA International Conference

22. CAST Driven International Safety Activities
ICAO
COSCAP (Cooperative Development of Operational Safety and Continuing Airworthiness)
Europe
JSSI: Joint Safety Strategy Initiative
Central and South America
PAAST: Pan American Aviation Safety Team
East Africa
African Airlines Safety Council, AFRASCO
West Africa
Flight Safety Foundation
Asia/Pacific
Association of Asia Pacific Airlines

23. CAST Future Direction Execute the CAST approved Safety Plan
Measure Plan effectiveness and modify Plan based on metrics and results
Continue the development of a proactive incident-based risk mitigation methodology
Improve the CAST process
Expand CAST influence on worldwide safety programs
Integrate safety program with R & D initiatives
Catalog the many ongoing safety initiatives that dilute limited resources and identify opportunities for program integration and efficiency improvements

24. Prioritized R&D and Study Recommendations
Captured all R&D and study recommendations from all JSAT/JSIT activity
Consolidated and grouped like products
Tested all against CAST Dataset for effectiveness
Recommending those that perform well against dataset

25. Conclusions CAST has an effective data driven process
CAST has become the model for Industry/Government consensus building on safety
CAST brings together all the key players
– Air Carriers – Manufacturers
– Employee Groups – Government
Predicted 64% risk reduction
Industry is voluntarily implementing CAST recommendations
World-wide leadership
Need your support to shape the future