1. Session 7: Family Formation and Social Demography Karl Ulrich Mayer Life Course Research: Theoretical Issues, Empirical Applications and Methodological Problems Sociological Methodology Workshop Series, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan September 20-24, 2004

2. Outline Micro-Theory The De-Standardization of the Life Course (Brückner/Mayer 2004) Family Formation in Times of Abrupt Social and Economic Change (Huinink/Kreyenfeld 2004) Human Capital Investments or Norms of Role Transition? (Blossfeld/Huinink 1991) Gender, Social Inequality, and Family Formation in West Germany (Huinink/Mayer 1995)

3. Micro-Theory Age Norms Cognitions and Control Beliefs Biographical Schemas Life Review

4. Micro-Theory Concepts Continuity / Discontinuity Stabilization / Change Differentiation / Integration Inter-Individual Differences vs. Intra-Individual Change External – Internal Stimulus – Mechanism Chrnological Age vs. Duration of Exposure (to risk)

5. Micro-Theory of the Life Course Body / GenesOrganic development / maturation and functional aging Cognitive development and cognitive decline PsychePersonality development (temperament, coping styles, extroversion-introversion, control beliefs) Actor / InteractionSocial norms for life phases (infant, child, adolescent, adult, old age) Age norms for transitions / chronological and subjective age (on-time, off-time) Biographical projects, continuity and consistency Life goals, life designs Self-regulation (gains and losses, selective optimization with compensation, persistency, domain specificity) Consolation prizes, cooling out

6. Causal Micro-Theories of the Life Course Resource accumulation and resource conversion: Status attainment and human capital Disadvantages and handicaps Critical life events, turning points (e.g. midlife crisis) Protective factors, vulnerable conditions (e.g. early marriage, delayed marriage) The children of the Great Depression: Accumulation and accentuation / social deprivation and the army Switching points (Magnusson‘s early menarche girls, Grundmann‘s sons of stepfathers, early marriage and the intergenerational transmission of divorce Age and Deliquency (Sampson / Laub’s replication of the Glueck study and the effect of marriage)

7. Changes in American Family Structure as the Result of Improved Life Expectancy 1900-1976 The probability that...19001976 1) A child would experience death of a parent by age 15. 24%5% 2) Marriage would end in widowhood before the 40th anniversary. 67%36% 3) A 15-year-old would have 3 or 4 living grandparents. 17%55% 4) A middle-aged couple would have at least 2 of their parents alive.* 10%47% * The demographic shift changes the idea of what a family is. Adapted from: Uhlenberg, 1980 Source: Bengtson, Vern L. and Katherine Allen (1992): "The Life Course Perspective Applied to Families Over Time." In: Pauline Boss, William Doherty, Robert La Rossa, Walter Schumm, and Suzanne Steinmetz (eds.), Sourcebook of Family Theories and Methods: A Contextual Approach. New York, N.Y.: Plenum Press, Pp. 469-499.

8. Graphics from: Brückner, Hannah and Karl Ulrich Mayer (2004): "The De- Standardization of the Life Course: What It Might Mean and If It Means Anything Whether it Actually Took Place." Paper presented at the Research Committee 28 (RC28) on Social Stratification and Mobility, Neuchâtel Meeting "Social Stratification, Mobility, and Exclusion". Neuchâtel, Switzerland, 7-9 May 2004. (forthcoming) in: Advances in Life Course Research.

9. Marriage Timing by Cohort and Age, Women

17. Marriage Timing by Cohort and Age, Men

25. Timing of First Childbirth by Age and Cohort, Women

33. Timing of First Child Birth by Cohort and Age, Men

41. Tables and graphics from: Huinink/Kreyenfeld Huinink, Johannes and Michaela Kreyenfeld (2004): "Family formation in times of social and economic change: an analysis of the 1971 East German cohort." WP-2004-013 (April 2004). Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock.

51. Tables and graphics from: Blossfeld, Hans-Peter and Johannes Huinink (1991): "Human Capital Investments or Norms of Role Transition? How women's schooling and career affect the process of family formation." American Journal of Sociology 97 (1 (July 1991)): 143-168.

60. Tables and graphics from: Huinink, Johannes and Karl Ulrich Mayer (1995): "Gender, Social Inequality, and Family Formation in West Germany." In: Karen Oppenheim Mason and An-Magrit Jensen (eds.), Gender and Family Change in Industrialized Countries. Oxford: Clarendon Press, Pp. 168-199.