1. Realignments The Ultimate Change in Partisanship

2. Two-Party System in American History

3. We often Switch Party Loyalty Congressional Elections Weaker partisan ties Poor challengers These can result in a landslide for one party

4. REALIGNMENTS How To Wreck a Party

5. How to Wreck a Movie First, how to wreck a movie movie Strange Brew 1983

6. What is a Realignment A Durable shift in voting Patterns The New Party Kills the Old Majority Parties become minorities

7. Who Switches in a Realignment Hard Cores do not switch Independents do New Voters Weak partisans become strong Partisans

8. What Causes a Realignment Economic or social crisis Failure of the party to interpret change A changed electorate

9. The Policy Implications A mandate for change Major New Policies Continued success

10. Options for the Losers Ignore the issue Try to absorb it Change

11. A THEORY OF CRITICAL ELECTIONS Good Times

12. Kinds of Realignments Secular Realignments- happen over time Regional Realignments Critical Elections

13. MaintainingDeviating ConvertingRealigning same change VICTORYDefeat Types of Election Majority Party

14. A Realigning Election The Actual Critical Election – 1860 – 1896 – 1930 High Intensity High Turnout

15. A Maintaining Election A boring election The party in power remains in power 1936, 1940, 1944, 1948, 1960

16. Deviating Election The Out party does well No shift in long term partisanship Caused by short-term factors 1912, 1916, 1952, 1956

17. Converting Election The out party is gaining seats The precursor to a realignment The majority party keeps control.

18. THE LAST REALIGNMENT The New Deal

19. The New Deal Realignment The GOP was the majority party from 1896- 1932 The Democrats Replaced the GOP and kept effective power from 1932-1968

20. How FDR Did it Kept the South Inroads into the North Urban Party – Catholics – Poor – Unions

21. Policy differences Focused on Domestic Economic Issues Expansion of Government Clear Policy differences between the parties The GOP could not adopt this message or expand its base

22. The End of the New Deal Problems are solved New Issues Emerge The Electorate Changes

23. How it Happens New Deal Democrats Die Catholics become assimilated economically New voters are less partisan Conflict between working class and African Americans

24. THE CASE OF THE SOUTH The real end of the new deal realignment

25. The South in historical context Solidly Democratic from 1870- 1968 The key to Democratic strength because of opportunity costs The shift of the South to the GOP marks the end of the New Deal Realignment

26. How the South Shifted First in Presidential elections (1948, 1964, 1968) Then State-wide offices Southern Democrats Die and are replaced by Republicans

27. Why the South Shifted Race Economics Demographics

28. THE CURRENT PARTY ALIGNMENT

29. The Parties have been Competitive Republicans President- 72, 80, 84, 88 2000, 2004 (24 years) Senate- 1981-1986, 1995- 2006 (18 years) House- 1995-2006, 2011- 2013- 14 years Democrats President- 76, 92, 96, 2008 (16 years) Senate- 1973-1980, 1989- 1994, 2007-2013 (20 years) House- 1972-1994, 2007- 2010 (26 years)

30. Dealignment A weakening of partisan ties Partisans, however, have become more extreme (as has congress) A new realignment would require the conversion of independents