1. Natural Hazards Germany - Kratzsch, DWD Natural Hazards and Disaster Prevention in Germany Thomas Kratzsch Head of Department Basic Forecasts Deutscher Wetterdienst Germany Thomas.Kratzsch@dwd.de 1

2. Natural Hazards Germany - Kratzsch, DWD Natural Hazards and Disaster Prevention in Germany Outline  No natural Hazard programme in Germany  National Authorities  DWD-Warning System  DWD - RCC-CM – data collection for climate monitoring 2

3. Natural Hazards Germany - Kratzsch, DWD Natural Hazards and Disaster Prevention in Germany No natural Hazard programme in Germany - Responsible for disaster prevention the federal states are! There are National Authorities and Organisations for disaster prevention and reduction, i.e. BBK (under BMI) DKKV (German Committee for Disaster Reduction) Ministries: BMU (BFS:..“radiation protection“), BLE, BMVBS (Protection of critical Infrastructures, DWD, BSH, …) Flood forecasting: www.hochwasserzentralen.de ; http://www.pegelonline.wsv.dewww.hochwasserzentralen.de 3

4. Natural Hazards Germany - Kratzsch, DWD National States Local authorities (municipalities, cities, etc.) Local / regional major disasters and emergencies Common emergencies / emergency & fire services, techn. assistance BBK Acts of war / emergencies of national significance / disaster assistance for states Planning, coordination, crisis management Operative management The German civil protection system

5. Natural Hazards Germany - Kratzsch, DWD Flood forecasting in Germany: www.hochwasserzentralen.de

6. Natural Hazards Germany - Kratzsch, DWD

7. BBK- The challenges An introduction to the Federal Office of Civil Protection and Disaster Assitance Source: BBK www.BBK.bund.de

8. Natural Hazards Germany - Kratzsch, DWD Der Bevölkerungsschutz beschreibt als Oberbegriff alle Aufgaben und Maßnahmen der Kommunen und der Länder im Katastrophenschutz sowie des Bundes im Zivilschutz. “Bevölkerungsschutz” as a generic noun describes all tasks and actions of the municipalities and states in the area of emergency/disaster management („Katastrophenschutz“) as well as those of the national level in the area of civil protection („Zivilschutz“). The German perspective Civil Protection thus encompasses all non-police and non-military measures for the protection of the population and its livelihood against disasters and other major emergencies as well as the consequences of war and armed conflicts. Civil Protection includes measures aimed at preventing such incidents, limiting their effects, and responding effectively to major incidents. BBK Glossary, 2011

9. Natural Hazards Germany - Kratzsch, DWD New Strategy for the Protection of the Population 2002 Starting point Changed climate of risk and more comples risk management Shortfalls in emergency preparedness and response The strategy Basic approach of the new strategy Civil protection as common, joint task Strategic planning Risk analysis Objective (protection goal) Cooperation, information, communication

10. Natural Hazards Germany - Kratzsch, DWD Organisation and development of self-protection Information of the population Warning of the population Protective buildings Right of residence Protection of health Protection of cultural assets Development of a curriculum for civil protection Support of national/federal authorities in common planning of civil defence The responsibilities Civil protection Technical-scientific research and publication Control of equipment and agents, certification, standardisation, quality assurance Emergency management – support of the states, if needed through the THW Training of managers and decision makers in emergency management in relation to their responsibilities in the area of civil protection Support of municipalities and lokal authorities in fullfilling their obligations in the area of self protection Civil protection and disaster assitance ZSKG 2009, law on civil protection and disaster management

11. Natural Hazards Germany - Kratzsch, DWD Civil Protection National The division of labour Emergency management States Disaster assistance CBRN protection Protection of cultural assets Supporting CI protection Self protection Flooding Forest fires Road traffic accidents Storm Local industrial accidents Terrorist attacks

12. Natural Hazards Germany - Kratzsch, DWD National States Local authorities (municipalities, cities, etc.) Local / regional major disasters and emergencies Common emergencies / emergency & fire services, techn. assistance BBK Acts of war / emergencies of national significance / disaster assistance for states Planning, coordination, crisis management Operative management The German civil protection system

13. Natural Hazards Germany - Kratzsch, DWD The BBK mission & tasks Training Implementation and coordination of national responsibilities in civil protection Support of the national level and the states in emergency crisis management Developing principle guidance, support, advice, connect, coordinate, train Point of reference for the civil service, other organisations and the population Crisis management Risk management Supporting volunteerism CBRN protection Public health protection Warning of the population Protection of cultural assets Risk analysis Research & development International Affairs Technical equipment Emergency water supply Promoting self- protection Critical infrastructure protection Psychological & social crisis management support GMLZ

14. Natural Hazards Germany - Kratzsch, DWD Denis 1 - open Internet-platform deNIS- Website Open for Public

15. Natural Hazards Germany - Kratzsch, DWD BBK organizes and coordinates exercises on disaster management on civil protection every 2 years on a national context: training of collaboration of national – states – local authorities BBK presents a list including natural hazards: „Gefahrenarten in Deutschland“ natural hazards defined at most by severe weather warning criteria of DWD

16. Natural Hazards Germany - Kratzsch, DWD Founded in 2000, following the German IDNDR Committee Non Governmental Organisation Non Profit Located in Bonn Members and Advisory Boards 4 Employees Deutsches Komitee Katastrophenvorsorge (DKKV) German Committee for Disaster Reduction Organisation and Activities of the national platform for Disaster Reduction Source: DKKV

17. Natural Hazards Germany - Kratzsch, DWD Objectives of DKKV Anchoring of DRR in Politics, Economics and Administration Awareness raising Reduction of human, social, economical and ecological losses Objectives are in line with IDNDR and IDSR. Members of DKKV are: Human Health – Relief Organisations Non Governmental Organisations Institutions of Civil Protection and Scientific Institutions Authorities Networks

18. Natural Hazards Germany - Kratzsch, DWD Operational Government national international Science Civil Society DKKV - Activities

19. Natural Hazards Germany - Kratzsch, DWD Activities Building of national and international Networks Advisors of Politics Improvement of Disaster management Knowledge management Advisor of Scientists on practical issues Public Relations Education Materials International and European Cooperation Services for DKKV Members Association – Events/ Discussion - Information - Lobbying - Projekts

20. Natural Hazards Germany - Kratzsch, DWD There are no nationwide definitions of Natural Hazards in Germany! but A) Natural Hazards from the perspective of warnings B) Natural Hazards from the perspective of climatology: RCC-CM Networks Global Precipitation Climatology Center 20

21. Natural Hazards Germany - Kratzsch, DWD Warning Management System of Deutscher Wetterdienst Warning criteria  same criteria for whole Germany  defined in collaboration with national authorities for disaster management, based on evaluation of climate data  Warnings given for rural destricts, 200m vertical steps  4 different warning levels: Weather phenomena Violent gusts Hurricane-force gusts Extreme hurricane-force gusts Severe thunderstorm Intense heavy rainfall Extremely intense heavy rainfall Strong continuous rain Extremely strong continuous rain Heavy snowfall Extremely heavy snowfall Heavy snowdrifts Black ice Heavy thaw Wind gusts Storm gusts Violent storm gusts Thunderstorm Heavy rainfall Continuous rain Snowfall Snowdrifts Slippery roads Fog Frost Severe frost Warning level Expected weather conditionsColour Official warning of particularly extreme and severe weather Extremely dangerous weather conditions Dark red / violet Official severe weather warning Very dangerous weather conditionsRed Official warning of significant weather Dangerous weather conditions Orange/ Ochre Official weather warningPossibility of weather-related risksYellow No warningNo weather-related risksBlue

22. Natural Hazards Germany - Kratzsch, DWD Weather Warning Meteorological phenomenontresholdsName wind in ca. 10 m above free area ≥ 50 km/hWind gusts thunderstormElectric discharge, also related with wind gustsThunderstorm light snowfall in heights over 800 m: individual decision up to 5 cm in 6 hours up to 10 cm in 12 hours Snowfall slicknesscaused by hoarfrost, snow cover, freezing moistureSlickness frostwidespread or continuing temperatures below freezing point; between 01.04 and 31.10. each year In heights below 800 m Frost fogwidespread visibility below 150 mFog

23. Natural Hazards Germany - Kratzsch, DWD Warning of significant weather Meteorological phenomenontresholdsName wind in ca. 10 m above free area 65 - 89 km/h Storm gusts 90 - 104 km/h Heavy storm gusts thunderstorm related with storm gusts, heavy storm gusts, heavy rain or hail Thunderstorm heavy rain 15-25 l/m 2 in 1 hour 20-35 l/m 2 in 6 hours Heavy rain continuous rain 25-40 l/m 2 in 12 hours 30-50 l/m 2 in 24 hours. 40-60 l/m 2 in 48 hours. Continuous rain Snowfall in heights over 800 m: individual decision 5-10 cm in 6 hours 10-15 cm in 12 hours over 800 m: up to 30 cm in 12 hours. snowfall Snowdrift in heights over 800 m: individual decision fresh snow or snow cover 5 -10 cm and wind gusts (39 km/h bis 65 km/h) snowdrifts slickness temporary or local, caused by freezing rain or drizzel, also freezing moisture with considerable traffic disturbance slickness frost Widespread or continuing temperature ≤ -10 ° C, In heights below 800 m Severe frost thaw snow cover, raising temperature and rain cause water cumulative flows: 25 - 40 l/m² in 12 hours 30 - 50 l/m² in 24 hours 40 - 60 l/m² in 48 hours thaw

24. Natural Hazards Germany - Kratzsch, DWD Warning of severe weather and particulary extreme and severe weather (I) Meteorological phenomenontresholdsName wind in ca. 10 m above free area 105 - 119 km/h Violent gusts ab 120 km/h Hurricane-force gusts widespread more than140 km/h Extreme Hurricane- force gusts very strong convective incident Thunderstorm with hail, intense heavy rain, violent or hurricane-force gusts or local tornados It is enough when only one of the attendent weather phenomena reaches the treshold of severe weather. hail with a diameter > 1,5 cm Severe thunderstorm intense heavy rain 25 - 40 l/m 2 in 1 hour 35 - 60 l/m 2 in 6 hours Intense heavy rain >40 l/m 2 in 1 hours >60 l/m 2 in 6 hours Extremely intense heavy rain strong continuous rain >40 l/m 2 in 12 hours >50 l/m 2 in 24 hours >60 l/m 2 in 48 hours Strong continuous rain widespread >70 l/m 2 in 12 hours >80 l/m 2 in 24 hours >90 l/m 2 in 48 hours Extremely strong continuous rain

25. Natural Hazards Germany - Kratzsch, DWD Warning of severe weather and particulary extreme and severe weather (II) Meteorological phenomenontresholdsName snowfall in heights over 800 m: individual decision >10 cm in 6 hours >15 cm in 12 hours in heights over 800 m: >30 cm in 12 hours Heavy snowfall widespread >25 cm in 12 hours in heights over 800 m: >50 cm in 12 hours Extremely heavy snowfall snowdrift in heights over 800 m: individual decision fresh snow or snow cover 10 bis 25 cm and storm gusts or more (> 65 km/h) Heavy snowdrifts fresh snow or snow cover> 25 cm and storm gusts or more (ab 65 km/h) Extremely heavy snowdrifts black icewidespread black iceBlack ice thawsnow cover, raising temperature and rain cause water cumulative flows: > 40 l/m² in 12 hours > 50 l/m² in 24 hours > 60 l/m² in 48 hours Heavy thaw Further information at www.dwd.de and www.wettergefahren.de

26. Natural Hazards Germany - Kratzsch, DWD Heat warnings (heat load) There is no official definition of a heat wave but criteria for heat warnings: Warning for a strong heat load: if Perceived Temperature at 12:00 UTC reaches or exceeds the threshold for strong heat load on two consecutive days and if the indoor temperature of a standardized building does not drop below a region specific threshold. Threshold for a strong heat load depends on the climate of the past 30 days to account for acclimatization. In most cases it is between 30 and 34°C. Indoor Temperature threshold takes the 8 hour nighttime average of operative indoor temperature into account and is depending on the region between 23°C in northern parts of Germany and higher regions and 25°C in warmer regions. An extreme heat warning is issued if Perceived Temperature at 12:00 UTC reaches or exceeds 38°C

27. Natural Hazards Germany - Kratzsch, DWD Contracts / Agreements DWD has existing contracts with all federal states and DRK, THW, DFwV on collaboration for disaster prevention and protection Containing met. and warning products and Climatological data and CC prognoses DWD stores met. data (events) for more than 100 years of the own measuring network Presents monthly reports „Monatlicher Witterungsbericht“

28. Natural Hazards Germany - Kratzsch, DWD ESWD data base There is a data base of severe weather events more than hundred years ago www.essl.org Close collaboration between several European National Meterological Services

29. Natural Hazards Germany - Kratzsch, DWD

30. The climatological view: RCC Network DWD does the coordination for the RCC-Network on RA VI and is leader of the node for climate monitoring (RCC-CM) One task of the node on climate monitoring within RCC is the aspects for CLIMATE WATCH which is suggested by WMO NMHS’s within RA VI need support by detecting critical long-lasting weather periods on weekly or monthly time scale DWDleader of RCC-CM Armstatehydromet, Météo-France, KNMI, HMSS, TSMS are Consortium Members of RCC-CM MeteoFranceleader of RCC-LRF

31. Natural Hazards Germany - Kratzsch, DWD RCC Network Product is a Climate Watch Advisory in case of detectable significant weather events. The beneficiaries are the NMHS’s of RA VI. Creating a Hazard database for RA VI with floods, heat waves, cold spells, droughts, wildfire, storms, rainfall, landslides, subjective and objective criteria For strong events which effect several countries a post disaster review will be conducted in the context of RCC-CM. Those documentations are archived on www.dwd.de/rcc-cmwww.dwd.de/rcc-cm

32. Natural Hazards Germany - Kratzsch, DWD RCC Network – Product Examples

33. Natural Hazards Germany - Kratzsch, DWD web application map service attribute table creating reports graphical statistic description OpenLayers GeoExt PDF.js jQuery.flot.js OpenStreetMap (external) DWD - infrastructure Geoserver secondary information WFS (Extreme Event data) WMS (secondary data, background data) Architecture for Visualisation of Knowledge Data Base for Extreme Weather Events in Europe

34. Natural Hazards Germany - Kratzsch, DWD Data model of Knowledge Data Base for Extreme Weather Events in Europe Spatial information Related events Description of Extreme Events Supplymentary information to descripe Extreme Events Supplymentary information for source description Source description

35. Natural Hazards Germany - Kratzsch, DWD anomalies, indices event punctiform extreme values extensive characteristics line-like development (trajectories) affected country affected area has is cachment location path is characterised by Description of Extreme Weather Events

36. Natural Hazards Germany - Kratzsch, DWD Webclient to Visualise Knowledge Data Base of Extreme Weather Events Events in 2012 from different data sources with spatial extension and occurence

37. Natural Hazards Germany - Kratzsch, DWD RCC Network – Product Examples WV1 – 01/2013

38. Natural Hazards Germany - Kratzsch, DWD GPCC – Global Precipitation Climatological Center Acquisition of precipitation data from meteorological and climate observation networks.Acquisition networks Quality-control and assessment of the collected resp. used data, correction of errorsQuality-control Correction with respect to systematic gauge measuring errorssystematic gauge measuring errors Calculation of gridded area-mean monthly precipitation for the earth's landsurfaceCalculation Error assessment for the precipitation totals on the individual gridcell (i.e. sampling error, systematic error component)sampling error Dissemination of the products (gridded data sets(pdf))Disseminationgridded data sets(pdf) Supervision of and reporting on availability, timeliness and quality of precipitation data (in SYNOP and CLIMAT reports received via GTS) (GCOS and CBS)GCOS and CBS Statistical analysis of the temporal and spatial variability of precipitation (VASClimO)VASClimO Assessment of high-latitude precipitation including snow observations (APDA)APDA Specific case studies

39. Natural Hazards Germany - Kratzsch, DWD Thank you for your attention ! Thanks to colleagues from DWD, BBK, DKKV Thomas Kratzsch Head of Department Basic Forecasts Deutscher Wetterdienst Frankfurter Str. 135 – 63067 Offenbach Germany Thomas.Kratzsch@dwd.de Tel: +49 (69) 8062 2254 Fax: +49 (69) 8062 2259