1. An Integrated Tour-based Truck Travel Forecasting Model Ian Harrington Central Transportation Planning Staff Boston, Massachusetts

2. Outline of Presentation Why prepare a new truck model? Identifying available data Trip generation model structure Trip distribution model structure Trip table adjustment Forecasting future truck travel

3. Why Prepare a New Truck Model? Previous truck trip tables based on old survey data Using truck trip tables allows for no estimation of impact of changes in demographics, infrastructure, tolls, or other changes in regional transportation system

4. Data Available for Truck Travel Forecasts Truck ownership data Truck/Vehicle Inventory and Use Surveys Residential location and characteristics Survey of sample of local businesses Field observations of trucks Truck trip generation rates Interregional truck trip table Vehicle classification counts

5. Trip Generation Model Structure Trucks fall into the following use categories: Tankers Household Goods Truckload/Less-than-Truckload Food and Warehouse Distribution Intermodal Package Heavy Retail Pickup/Van

6. Trip Generation Model Structure Truck tours consist of the following trip types: Regional Truck Tour Ends Intermediate Starts and Stops Regional Truck Entrances/Exits External Truck Entrances/Exits Through Truck Entrances/Exits

7. Regional Truck Tour Ends Number of truck tour ends is a function of: Number of trucks Number of tours per day Portion of days each truck active TE = 2 * Trucks * Tours * % Days Active Day Estimated for each truck use category

8. Regional Truck Tour Ends Number of trucks per employee by industrial sector based on CTPS survey Average SectorTrucks/Emp Government0.060 Manufacturing0.045 Agric, Mining, & Constr0.539 Transport, Comm, & Util0.262 Service0.030 Fin, Insur, & Real Estate0.003 Retail0.039 Wholesale0.147 0.076

9. Regional Truck Tour Ends Cross-classification of trucks by use category and industry based on CTPS field observations HhldLTL &Food &Pickup SectorTankersGoodsTruckloadWarehouseIntermodalPackageHeavyRetailand Van Government0.0% 20.0%48.0%0.0%32.0% Manufacturing0.0% 42.2%0.0% 31.0%1.7%25.0% AMC0.3%0.0% 0.3%0.0% 42.1%0.3%57.2% TCU2.7%13.2%34.2%1.5%4.0%11.9%13.5%0.2%18.8% Service0.7%0.0% 1.2%0.0% 27.6%0.5%69.8% FIRE0.0% 23.1%0.0%76.9% Retail19.9%0.0% 11.2%0.0% 2.7%53.4%12.8% Wholesale5.9%0.0% 78.6%0.0% 2.7%5.9%6.8%

10. Regional Truck Tour Ends Trucks in Government and Manufacturing industries have distinct distributions by use category HhldLTL &Food & SectorTankersGoodsTruckloadWarehouseIntermodal Government0.0% Manufacturing0.0% 42.2%0.0% Pickup SectorPackageHeavyRetailand Van Government20.0%48.0%0.0%32.0% Manufacturing0.0%31.0%1.7%25.0%

11. Regional Truck Tour Ends Operational data from TIUS/VIUS data for Massachusetts DaysTours Activeper Day Tankers61.0%2.01 Household Goods63.8%0.9 LTL/TL91.2%0.9 Food/Warehouse81.5%1 Intermodal88.5%0.95 Package81.5%1.2 Heavy68.8%1.15 Retail94.0%1.1 Pickup/Van86.9%1.3

12. Intermediate Starts and Stops Based upon truck trip generation rates in literature with adjustments for Eastern MA HhldLTLFood &Inter-PU/ 1995 Intermediate TankersGoods/TL WarehousemodalPackageHeavyRetailVanTotal Government0.00340.000400.0500.040.020.0150.090.219 Manufacturing0.0040.00030.050.090.0030.050.060.0210.150.428 Agric, Mining, & Constr0.0030.000050.05 00.03 0.020.10.283 Transport, Comm, & Util0.00350.00030.05 0.0010.044 0.010.050.253 Service0.00170.000400.0500.060.0190.0150.090.236 Fire, Insur, & Real Estate0.0030.000500.050 0.020.0150.090.229 Retail0.0030.00020.010.530.00030.040.020.010.090.704 Wholesale0.0020.00010.050.060.00230.040.020.010.110.294 Households0.00950.000900.00200.030.0350.0150.1210.213 Group Quarters0.00100.001100.000800.01150.00350.00580.04650.070

13. Intermediate Starts and Stops Truck trips generated per employee at government and manufacturing worksites HhldLTLFood &Inter- TankersGoods/TL Warehousemodal Government0.00340.000400.050 Manufacturing0.0040.00030.050.090.003 PU/ PackageHeavyRetailVanTotal Government0.040.020.0150.090.2188 Manufacturing0.050.060.0210.150.4283

14. Intermediate Starts and Stops Supply of intermediate starts and stops based on operational data: S&S = Stops/Tour * Tour Ends/2 Stops per Tour Tankers7Package21 Household Goods2Heavy4 LTL/Truckload4Retail6 Food & Warehouse14Business PU/Van4 Intermodal2

15. Intermediate Starts and Stops Intraregional truck tour starts and stops: Intra S&S = Tour Ends/2 * (1 - % Tours Ext) * Stops/Tour Pct Trips External Tankers24.0%Package2.0% Household Goods16.5%Heavy11.0% LTL/Truckload39.3%Retail5.0% Food & Warehouse8.5%Business PU/Van18.0% Intermodal50.0%

16. Intermediate Starts and Stops Regional truck interregional tour starts and stops: Reg IX S&S = Tour Ends/2 * % Tours Ext * Stops/Tour Assume interregional tours have one-half the number of stops per tour within region

17. Intermediate Starts and Stops External truck intermediate starts and stops: Ext S&S = Total S&S – Intra S&S – Local IX S&S

18. Regional Truck Entrances/Exits Regional truck interregional tour external tour ends: Reg IX Ext TE = 2 * Reg IX S&S Stops/Tour Assume interregional tours have one half the number of stops per tour within region

19. External Truck Entrances/Exits External truck tour ends Ext TE = 2 * Ext S&S Stops/Tour Assume interregional tours have one-half the number of stops per tour within region

20. Through Truck Entrances/Exits Based on external survey truck volumes, subtract estimated crossings from total Thru TE = Tot Vol – Reg IX Ext TE – Ext TE

21. Truck Trip Distribution Use estimated trip ends and adjust initial gamma functions to match estimated regional trip length frequencies by use category based on TIUS/VIUS data for Massachusetts and an interregional trip table Use double-TAZ setup to match appropriate trip end pairs in trip tables

22. Truck Trip Distribution Match appropriate pairs of trip productions and attractions for intraregional and through truck trips a TAZ AExt ATAZ BExtern B Attrs TAZ AP:Local Reg TEs ProdsA:Local Reg S&Ss Ext A Prods TAZ BP:Local Reg S&Ss ProdsA:Local Reg TEsA:Local Reg S&Ss Ext BP:Thru TEs ProdsA:Thru TEs

23. Truck Trip Distribution Match appropriate pairs of trip productions and attractions for interregional truck trips a TAZ AExt ATAZ BExtern B Attrs TAZ AP:Reg IX S&Ss ProdsA:Reg IX Ext S&SsA:Reg IX Ext TEs Ext A P:Reg IX Ext TEs Prods A:Reg IX S&Ss TAZ BP:Ext S&Ss ProdsA:Ext S&SsA:Ext TEs Ext BP:Ext TEs ProdsA:Ext S&Ss

24. Trip Table Estimation Since estimated truck trip tables are based on so many assumptions, need to check distribution results Create set of truck vehicle counts by use category using vehicle classification counts and a cross-classification of truck use category and FHWA truck class Use resultant trip table as seed for new gamma functions ThreeFiveSixSevenEightNineTenElevenTotals Tankers7572,499587123368004305,0332.2% Household Goods1,72253212067136002,4701.1% LTL/Truckload6094318501,0271,06664583,4041.5% Food & Warehouse7,9565,05683408651,24212 15,9787.1% Intermodal0000386326007110.3% Package9,0323,6811250000012,8375.7% Heavy7,40319,2154,7448501,1072,342423036,08516.1% Retail19,9701,636120481060021,7729.7% Business PU/Van125,1741,348000000126,52156.3% TOTALS172,07334,9106,4988623,8366,01954370224,812

25. Forecasting Future Truck Travel Apply truck trip generation model -- with future scenario employment, household, group quarters, and external station trip ends -- to estimate tour ends, starts and stops, and entrances/exits Apply gamma functions and productions and attractions for initial estimate of truck trip tables Apply trip table adjustment factors to produce future-year truck trip tables based upon future-year demographics and network characteristics

26. Summary Now our truck travel forecasting model is sensitive to changes in regional demographic characteristics, infrastructure, tolls, and the regional transportation system.

27. Contact Information Ian Harrington ianh@ctps.org Chief Transportation Planner David S. Kruse dkruse@ctps.org Central Transportation Planning Staff to the Boston Region Metropolitan Planning Organization (www.bostonmpo.org)