1. Applying SEEM Updates, Calibration, and Measure Interaction Decisions to: Manufactured Homes Weatherization UES Measures Regional Technical Forum June 16 th, 2015 Mohit Singh-Chhabra

2. Presentation Objective Approve MH weatherization measure analysis – Conducted by applying SEEM updates, RBSA calibration (phase 1 & 2) and measure interaction decisions – Approve measures with Electric Resistance Heat identifier as proven – Approve measures with heat pump identifier as planning CC&S research needs to be completed before proven measure with Heat Pump identifier can be developed – Research Strategy presented to the RTF on 3/15 Need to develop Research Strategy for manufactured homes heat pump calibration curve (within next two RTF meetings) 2

3. How We Got Here August ‘14: Savings calculation methodology addressing measure interaction approved by the RTF – Already applied to SF weatherization measures and approved August ‘14: Existing SF & MH cooling energy calibration approved by the RTF at the August ‘14 meeting – Simplified calibration, on-average thermostat setting December ‘14: MH weatherization analysis presented, RTF directed staff to compare modeled savings estimates with actual program data June ’15 (Today): Calibration curve for existing MH approved by the RTF 3

4. Measure Overview - 4

5. Measure Specification Update R-30 attic insulation only applicable to homes with adequate roof pitch – HUD certified, no less than 3:12 nominal pitch – This applies to attic insulation R0-R30, R11-R30 Pre-HUD certified homes will not have enough pitch to allow for R- 30 weatherization. The R0-R22 upgrade is applicable to these homes only. R19-R30 measure discontinued – R19 is the assumed cost effectiveness limit for insulation retrofits CAT consulted with experts (Bruce Manclark, Brady Peeks and Tom Hewes) to develop these measure specs 5

6. Measure Identifier Update New measure identifier: Electric Resistance Heat – This includes both eFAF and zonal heating systems – RBSA had very little evidence of primary zonal heat prevalence in MH – Zonal and eFAF heated homes likely have similar properties except duct systems 6

7. Methodology Overview Analysis follows a similar methodology as the SF weatherization measure analysis: RBSA informs measure baseline Define the Full Measure Package (FMP) to conduct RTF measure interaction guidance compliant energy savings analysis Apply RTF approved Phase 1 and Phase 2 calibration Apply RTF approved savings calculation methodology for measures with significant measure interaction (Option 3) 7

8. Measure Baseline RBSA MH homes simulated in SEEM as is to develop baseline – Each home simulated in all climate zones, similar SF analysis – Accurate representation of average regional UA value 8

9. Phase I Adjustment Factors 9

10. Phase II Adjustment Factors 10

11. Measure Interactions (Option 3) Full Measure Package (Defining efficiency levels) Attic: R-30 Floors: R-22 Windows: u-0.30 Infiltration: 0.35 ACHn Duct Tightness: PTCS Duct Insulation: R-8 Heat Pump HSPF: 9.0 HP CC&S: PTCS 11 Limit on Full Measure Package (Maximum efficiency of starting point) Attic: R-19 Floors: R-11 Windows: Double Pane Metal Frame Infiltration: 0.35 ACHn Duct Tightness: n/a Duct Insulation: Uninsulated Heat Pump HSPF: n/a HP CC&S: n/a Guidelines compliant Measure Interaction savings methodology implemented to calculate measure savings Follows similar methodology as the SF analysis.

12. Interpreting the Energy Savings Comparison Current Savings: – pre-RBSA calibration savings Note, these aren’t un-calibrated savings – Use LMI methodology – Currently on our books Proposed Savings: – Includes RBSA Phase 1 & 2 calibration – Includes measure interaction analysis “Option 3” 12

13. Energy Savings (kWh/sf): Attic Measures 13

14. Notes on Attic Savings Comparison Except the R0-R22 measure, we see a general trend of decrease in energy savings Attic R0-R22: – The current savings are for attic R0-R19 insulation upgrade – The proposed savings are based on pre-HUD homes only; not the case for current Attic R11-R30: – The current savings are for attic R19-R30 insulation upgrade 14

15. Energy Savings (kWh/sf): Floor Measures 15

16. Notes on Floor Insulation Savings Comparison General trend: decrease in per unit energy savings Savings floor insulation in HP heated homes in HZ 2, 3 are almost zero (sometimes negative) – For these measures, the calibrated FMP homes consume as much or slightly more energy than the calibrated RBSA homes – This is a function of the RBSA Phase 1 calibration curve (see backup slides) – Note: very few RBSA homes with a HP qualify for a floor insulation upgrade. i.e. measure unlikely to be common 16

17. Energy Savings (kWh/cfm50 red’n): Infiltration Reduction 17

18. Notes on Infiltration Energy Savings Comparison Savings decreased for measures due to – Updated SEEM infiltration algorithm See RTF presentation slide 13: Proven UES: Residential Single Family SEEM-affected UES Measures - Whiteboard Items - Adam Hadley (9/14)Proven UES: Residential Single Family SEEM-affected UES Measures - Whiteboard Items - Adam Hadley (9/14) – Effects of calibration, and measure interaction 18

19. Window Upgrades: Energy Savings Assumption Note: No HP home in RBSA with double pane windows. – Hence no data to model Double Pane to U30 window upgrade in HP homes. CAT estimated double pane upgrade measure savings using ratio of savings between double pane and single pane upgrade in electric resistance homes – Data available to calculate savings in HP homes for single pane to U30 upgrade. 19

20. Energy Savings (kWh/sf): Window Measures 20

21. Weatherization Cost Data RTF approved SIW cost data applied Proposed (and current) workbook uses the following as a proxy: – Insulation: SF cost data – Windows: SF and MF cost data – Infiltration: No change CAT received feedback that MH weatherization costs may be much higher than SF costs – Checked against, Idaho Power data. Costs similar to proposed assumption – Two out of state reports used for comparison WI Home Energy+ LI Program – showed significantly higher costs CO Low Income EE Retrofit Programs– showed similar costs to proposed assumption 21

22. Proposed and Current Measure Costs: Insulation (2006 $/sf) 22

23. Proposed and Current Measure Costs: Window Upgrades (2006 $/sf) 23

24. Proposed and Current Measure Costs: Infiltration Reduction No change in infiltration reduction costs – $0.68 per CFM50 reduction (In 2006$) 24

25. Measure Cost Effectiveness: Which measures are cost effective? Electric Resistance Heat: 25

26. Measure Cost Effectiveness: Which measures are cost effective? Heat Pump: 26

27. Delivery Verification Guidance Approved by the RTF on 05/2015 27

28. Decision Slide “I __________ move the RTF approve the Residential MH Weatherization UES measures as presented and: – Set the Category for measures with identifier Electric Resistance Heat to ‘Proven’; set the Status to ‘Active’; – Set the Category for measures with identifier Heat Pump to ‘Planning’; set the Status to ‘Under Review’; – Set the sunset date to May 31, 2020.” 28

29. Backup Slides 29

30. Measure Interactions - Option 3 30

31. Discussion: MH Calibration Phase I 31 Most Base case homes Most efficient homes

32. Discussion: MH Calibration Phase I 32 1 1 2 2 3 3

33. Discussion: MH Calibration Phase 1 (contd.) 33 3 3 2 2 1 1

34. Discussion: MH Calibration Phase I 34 R0-R22 R0-R30

35. Discussion: MH Calibration Phase 1 (contd.) 35 R0-R30 R0-R22