1. Ulrich Blahak, DWD, COSMO General Meeting 2013 Sibiu1 WG3a activities in cloud microphysics and radiation Ulrich Blahak, for the large part on behalf of Axel Seifert German Weather Service, Offenbach

2. Ulrich Blahak, DWD, COSMO General Meeting 2013 Sibiu2 Outline  Microphysics:  Activities in the last year  Short term plans  Long term plans  The same for radiation  … and revised cloud radiation coupling

3. Ulrich Blahak, DWD, COSMO General Meeting 2013 Sibiu3 Microphysics: recent work  Improvement of supercooled LWC in mixed phase clouds (F. Rieper, motivated by air craft icing forecasts at DWD)  Development of improved treatment of cirrus ice clouds for current one- moment schemes (PhD of C. Köhler, DWD)  Development of improved snow melting parameterization (PhD of C. Frick, DWD)  Interface to 2-moment scheme in official Version; code itself and necessary lookup table files available on DWD ftp server. Still missing „User Guide“ …

4. Ulrich Blahak, DWD, COSMO General Meeting 2013 Sibiu4 Improvement of Supercooled LWC  Much too less supercooled LWC in mixed phase clouds  Changes to the microphysics:  Reduced diagnostic number of ice particles as function of T (before, it was unplausibly too high), therefore reduction of Bergeron-Findeisen-process in mixed phase clouds  Reduction of rain freezing rates (before, it was unplausibly too high)  Parameterization of subgrid scale effects on liquid water layers on top of ice cloud layers.

5. Ulrich Blahak, DWD, COSMO General Meeting 2013 Sibiu5 COSMO Aerosol Ice & SLW Ice Observation January 18, 2013 Lindenberg COSMO (old) COSMO (new: N i ) COSMO (new: N i +SLW) Result: reduced underprediction Slides by F. Rieper, DWD

6. Ulrich Blahak, DWD, COSMO General Meeting 2013 Sibiu6 COSMO-EU (old) January 18, 2013 Lindenberg Observation good retrieval COSMO-EU (new: N i ) COSMO-EU (new: N i +SLW) Result: impact on supercooled LWP Slides by F. Rieper, DWD

7. Ulrich Blahak, DWD, COSMO General Meeting 2013 Sibiu7 Missing Cloud droplet Immersion- Deposition-Condensation- Thomas Leisner, Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung FZ Karlsruhe und Institut für Umweltphysik, Uni Heidelberg (modified) Homogeneous FreezingHeterogeneous Freezing Contact- Liquid Aerosol ( ) Ice nucleation: current status : Slides by C. Köhler, DWD

8. Ulrich Blahak, DWD, COSMO General Meeting 2013 Sibiu8 DLR – 06/06/2011 Implementation of state-of-the-art parameterisations for homogeneous and heterogeneous nucleation New prognostic model variables  2-moment cloud ice scheme (still monodisperse size distribution) Changes in treatment of depositional growth for cloud ice and snow Limitation of heterogeneous nucleation with prognostic budget variable for activated ice nuclei Introduction of cloud ice sedimentation Changes in the Cloud Ice Microphysics Slides by C. Köhler, DWD

9. Ulrich Blahak, DWD, COSMO General Meeting 2013 Sibiu9 COSMO-DE Model COSMO-Ice MSG/SEVIRI  Implemented in COSMO Version 4.18 COSMO Modell Slides by C. Köhler, DWD

10. Ulrich Blahak, DWD, COSMO General Meeting 2013 Sibiu10 GME Model Overestimation of ice water content (IWC) of the GME is reduced RMSE reduced with the new cloud ice nucleation scheme Slides by C. Köhler, DWD

11. Ulrich Blahak, DWD, COSMO General Meeting 2013 Sibiu11 GME Model Ice supersaturation improved due to new depositional growth In-cloud ice supersaturation is allowed for. IFS assumes in-cloud saturation, which is not compliant with in situ measurements Slides by C. Köhler, DWD

12. Ulrich Blahak, DWD, COSMO General Meeting 2013 Sibiu12 New snow melting scheme  New prognostic snowflake water content  Enables better parameterization of the melting process  Leads to slower melting, more in accordance with observations (Frick et al. 2013, GMDD, under review) OldNew

13. Ulrich Blahak, DWD, COSMO General Meeting 2013 Sibiu13 New snow melting scheme (Frick et al. 2013, GMDD, under review) Meltwater on snow flakes, same section as slide before Different day, different region One can have partially melted snow on the ground. Affects prediction of precipitation phase on the ground in winter time!

14. Ulrich Blahak, DWD, COSMO General Meeting 2013 Sibiu14 Microphysics: plans  Short term (2013 – 2017):  Common COSMO / ICON physics library  Investigate dry precipitation bias in summer time  Further testing of the works of C. Köhler and C. Frick  Continuing work of F. Rieper regarding supercooled LWC, demand of aviation forecasters (aircraft icing)  2-moment scheme: further studies to evaluate benefit in operational NWP; consistent data assimilation, otherwise we will most likely not see the full benefit  Towards explicit hail forecasting with 2-moment scheme:  improvement of hail melting / shedding following methodology of C. Frick (Postdoc work of V. Sant in HD(CP)2, Hamburg)  Resolution requirements?  Longer term (2018 – 2020):  Keep an eye on scientific developments regarding subgrid scale processes in cloud microphysics parameterization (effects of turbulence and spatial inhomogeneity)

15. Ulrich Blahak, DWD, COSMO General Meeting 2013 Sibiu15 Microphysics: recent publications  Frick, C., A. Seifert, and H. Wernli, A bulk parameterization of melting snowflakes with explicit liquid water fraction for the COSMO model version 4.14, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., 6, 2927-2966, 2013  Köhler, C: Cloud ice particle nucleation and atmospheric ice supersaturation in numerical weather prediction models, PhD thesis, 2013  Seifert, A., Köhler, C., and Beheng, K. D.: Aerosol-cloud-precipitation effects over Germany as simulated by a convective-scale numerical weather prediction model, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 709-725, doi:10.5194/acp-12-709- 2012, 2012  Naumann, A. K., Seifert, A., and Mellado, J. P.: A refined statistical cloud closure using double-Gaussian probability density functions, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., 6, 1085-1125, doi:10.5194/gmdd-6-1085-2013, 2013

16. Ulrich Blahak, DWD, COSMO General Meeting 2013 Sibiu16 Radiation: recent work  New modis derived „total“ albedo (Frank Brenner, DWD)  External parameters for orographic radiation corrections finally available in new EXTPAR

17. Ulrich Blahak, DWD, COSMO General Meeting 2013 Sibiu17 Radiation: plans  Short Term (2013 – 2017):  Common COSMO / ICON physics library  Test parameterization of 3D radiation effects (work from Uni Munich within Extramural Research program), TICA, McICA  Test McSI – Monte Carlo Spectral Integration methods (B. Ritter)  Revision of cloud - radiation feedback (U. Blahak)  Test alternative scheme RRTM for COSMO (available via common physics library):  Consistent coupling with ICON  RG92 has problems for domain heights >~ 25 km  Longer Term (2015 – 2017):  Likely: Revision of cloud - radiation feedback cont.

18. Ulrich Blahak, DWD, COSMO General Meeting 2013 Sibiu18 Revision of cloud radiation feedback  In the COSMO radiation scheme (Ritter & Geleyn 1992), the optical properties (extinction coeff., single scattering albedo, asymmetry factor) only depend on QC respectively QI.  Nowadays more modern parameterizations based on an effective radius R e are available.  From inherent assumptions about N(D) and particle shapes in state-of-the- art microphysical models R e can be deduced.  Then: optical properties = fct (QX, R e, λ)  For the gridscale clouds, only a fraction k=0.5 of QI and/or QC is considered in the radiation scheme („tentative“ effective factor to take into account subgrid scale variability). Test larger, more realistic value for todays models.  Radiation scheme is only aware of cloud droplets and cloud ice! Extend to precipitating species (most importantly snow)

19. Ulrich Blahak, DWD, COSMO General Meeting 2013 Sibiu19 Revision of cloud-radiation feedback Total QI Total QS – factor 5 and more !

20. Ulrich Blahak, DWD, COSMO General Meeting 2013 Sibiu20 Revision of cloud-radiation feedback Case study COSMO-DE, 13.6.2012, 00UTC run, domain average T_2M - - - - Synop Obs. Control + Tegen aerosols + hydrometeor radiative properties depending on R eff + qg, qs + radqfact 0.5 -> 0.75 Potential big impact, but it looks not always so nice! Careful re-tuning of the model necessary. Current model tuned to compensate the cloud radiative bias!