1. CICS 09 September 2010 1 William. M. Lapenta Deputy Director Environmental Modeling Center NOAA/NWS/NCEP With contributions from Many EMC Staff Overview of the NCEP Environmental Modeling Center

2. CICS 09 September 2010 2 2 Presentation Outline EMC Mission and Organization The NCEP Model Production Suite –Global Forecast (+ Ensemble) & Data Assimilation System –Global Coupled Climate Forecast System –CONUS Mesoscale Model Systems Short Range Ensemble System Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model Rapid Update Cycle Convergence through FY13 –Real-time Ocean Forecasting –Hurricane Forecasting Transition of research to operations

3. CICS 09 September 2010 3 The National Centers for Environmental Prediction CPC HPC SPC SWPC AWC OPC NHC NCO EMC

4. CICS 09 September 2010 4 The EMC Mission…..  Develop and Enhance numerical guidance –Improve NCEP’s numerical forecast model systems via : Scientific upgrades Optimization Additional observations  Transition operational numerical forecast models from research to operations –Transform & integrate Code Algorithms Techniques –Manages and executes transition process including technical and system performance review before implementation  Maintain operational model suite –The scientific correctness and integrity of operational forecast modeling systems –Modify current operational system to adapt to ever-present external changes EMC location within the funnel In response to operational requirements: 45% 25% 30%

5. CICS 09 September 2010 5 ForecastUncertaintyForecastUncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons Years NWS Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Weather and Climate Forecast Lead Time Warnings & Alert Coordination Watches Forecasts Threats Assessments Guidance Outlook Benefits NCEP Model Perspective Maritime Life & Property Space Operations Recreation Ecosystem Environment Emergency Mgmt Agriculture Reservoir Control Energy Planning Commerce Hydropower Fire Weather Health Aviation North American Ensemble Forecast System Climate Forecast System Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Land Surface Ocean Waves Tropical Cyclone Global Forecast System North American Mesoscale Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation Dispersion Models for DHS -GFDL -HWRF Global Ensemble Forecast System

6. CICS 09 September 2010 6 Supercomputing at NCEP IBM Power6 p575 –69.7 Teraflops Linpack –156 Power6 32-way Nodes –4,992 processors @ 4.7GHz –19,712 GB memory –320 TB of disk space per system –13 PB tape archive Cirrus— (backup) Stratus— (primary)

7. CICS 09 September 2010 7 Production Suite on Supercomputer Time of the day (utc) Number of Nodes 00 06 1218 September 2009 Development Work

8. CICS 09 September 2010 8 Production Suite on Supercomputer Time of the day (utc) Number of Nodes 00 06 1218 July 2010 Missing Data Development Work

9. CICS 09 September 2010 9 Global Forecast System (GFS) Horizontal Representation Spectral (spherical harmonic basis functions) with transformation to a Gaussian grid for calculation of nonlinear quantities and physics. Vertical Representation Sigma coordinate. Lorenz grid. Quadratic- conserving finite difference scheme by Arakawa and Mintz (1974). Vertical Resolution 64 unequally-spaced sigma levels. For a surface pressure of 1000 hPa, 15 levels are below 800 hPa, and 24 levels are above 100 hPa. 4 Cycles per day T574 (~28km) to 7.5 days T190 (~70km) to 16 days

10. CICS 09 September 2010 10 Data Assimilation (Implemented 17 December 2009) –Assimilate: NOAA-19 AMSU-A/B, HIRS RARS 1b data NOAA-18 SBUV/2 and OMI –Improved use of GPS RO observations Refractivity forward operator Allow more observations, in particular in the tropical latitudes, due to better QC checks for COSMIC data Better QC procedures Metop/GRAS, GRACE-A and CHAMP Upgrade implemented 28 July 2010 –Increase horizontal resolution T382 (35km) to T574 (~28km) & 64L for 0 to 192hr forecast Remains T190 (~70km) & 64L for 192-384 hr forecast –Upgrade GFS physics (Radiation, shallow/deep convection and PBL) Modified SW and LW radiation calculations (aerosol effects, co2, cloud interaction) Detrainment from all levels (deep convection) Testing at low resolution shows reduction in high precipitation bias PBL diffusion in inversion layers reduced (decrease erosion of marine stratus) Includes gravity wave drag (effect of topography) GSI 3D-VAR/GFS Plans for FY10

11. CICS 09 September 2010 11 Modify GFS shallow/deep convection and PBL –Detrainment from all levels (deep convection) –PBL diffusion in inversion layers reduced (decrease erosion of marine stratus) GSI/GFS Resolution –T382 (~35km) to T574 (~28km) & 64L GFS Plans for FY10 Implemented 28 July 2010 Updated GFS physics package eliminates grid-point precipitation “bombs” Observed Operational GFS Upgraded Physics GFS 24 h accumulated precip ending 12 UTC 14 July 2009

12. CICS 09 September 2010 12 GFS Upgrade Atlantic Hurricane Track Error 2008 Hurricane Season 2008 Operational – Blue December GFS Package – Red T574 with upgraded Physics - Green

13. CICS 09 September 2010 13 GFS Upgrade EPAC Hurricane Track Error 2008 Hurricane Season 32% Improvement over 2008 Prod 25% Improvement over 1Q10 Prod 2008 Operational – Blue December GFS Package – Red T574 with upgraded Physics - Green

14. CICS 09 September 2010 14 Upgraded GFS 500mb AC Days 0-9 NH for August 2010 “The medium range HPC map discussion lead showed the NH 500 and > 1000 dieoff curves for August and said they now often prefer the GFS to > ECMWF, not only over North America but also in the tropics” EC > GFS EC < GFS

15. CICS 09 September 2010 15 Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) Implemented February 2010 Upgrades: –Increase horizontal resolution from T126 (~90km) to T190 (~70km) –4 cycles per day, 20+1 members per cycle –Forecast duration to 384 hours (16 days) Use 8 th order horizontal diffusion & stochastic perturbation scheme to account for random model errors –improve forecast skill –Increase ensemble spread and forecast skill (reliability) Introduce ESMF (Earth System Modeling Framework) for GEFS –Version 3.1.0rp2 –Allows concurrent generation of all ensemble members –Needed for efficiency of stochastic perturbation scheme Add new variables (27 more) to pgrba files –Based on user request –From current 52 (variables) to future 79 (variables) –For NAEFS ensemble data exchange

16. CICS 09 September 2010 16 NH Anomaly Correlation for 500hPa Height Period: August 1 st – September 30 th 2007 GEFSg extends skillful forecast (60%) for 9+ days 24 hours better than previsou GEFS 48 hours better than current GFS

17. CICS 09 September 2010 17 North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) Collaboration between NCEP, Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC), FNMOC and Mexico Weather Service –Elements: Demonstrate value of Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) Engage in collaborative software development, focused on postprocessing products from an arbitrary number of forecast systems Establish operational data transfer Application to operational products with shared software Continue to monitor value-added with MME strategy Global ensemble products –NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) operational in NAEFS 20 members -16 days –CMC operational in NAEFS 20 members - 16 days –FNMOC Currently experimental in NAEFS –16 members, 10 days, 52 variables Final evaluation of upgraded FNMOC ensemble system –20 members, 16 days and 73 variables

18. CICS 09 September 2010 18 Value-added by including FNMOC ensemble into NAEFS 2m Temperature

19. CICS 09 September 2010 19

20. CICS 09 September 2010 20 AttributeOperational ConfigurationQ1FY11 Configuration Analysis Resolution200 km38 km Atmosphere model1995: 200 km/28 levels Humidity based clouds 100 km/64 levels Variable CO2 AER SW & LW radiation Prognostic clouds & liquid water Retuned mountain blocking Convective gravity wave drag Ocean modelMOM-3: 60N-65S 1/3 x 1 deg. Assim depth 750 m MOM-4 fully global ¼ x ½ deg. Assim depth 4737 m Land surface model (LSM) and assimilation 2-level LSM No separate land data assim 4 level Noah model GLDAS driven by obs precip Sea iceClimatologyDaily analysis and Prognostic sea ice CouplingDaily30 minutes Data assimilationRetrieved soundings, 1995 analysis, uncoupled background Radiances assimilated, 2008 GSI, coupled background Reforecasts15/month seasonal output25/month (seasonal) 124/month (week 3-6) Climate Forecast System (CFS) Planned Upgrade for Q1FY11

21. CICS 09 September 2010 21 Climate Forecast System (CFS V.2) System Two essential components: Reanalysis of the atmosphere, ocean, seaice and land over the 31- year period (1979-2009) is required to provide consistent initial conditions for: A complete Reforecast of the new CFS over the 28-year period (1982-2009), in order to provide stable calibration and skill estimates of the new system, for operational seasonal prediction at NCEP Total = 6351 + 1620 + 1476 = 9447 years. 9 month (interannual) 4 month (seasonal) 45 day (monthly)

22. CICS 09 September 2010 22 Global HYCOM (RTOFS-Global) –Adopting Navy 1/12° global HYCOM model using Daily initialization from NAVO. GFS forcing. Daily 7-8 day run with 2 day spin- up. –NCO parallel to start FY2010Q4. Establish reliability of NAVO data feed. Establish compatibility of NCEP and Navy forcing. Develop products with customers. –Full data on NOMADS. –Become operational in FY2011Q4 Example surface currents from MMAB parallel

23. CICS 09 September 2010 23 FY11 Major System Implementations Result of joint NCO-EMC planning process (Starosta, Cary, and staff)

24. CICS 09 September 2010 24 Mapping Testbeds Into the EMC Organizational Structure  Alignment between testbed and NCEP/EMC missions is critical to success  Some testbeds are able to provide support to NCEP staff to participate  Land surface modeling team has been very successful working with NOAA/CPO outside the testbed system  Data assimilation team is a core NCEP infrastructure

25. CICS 09 September 2010 25 Thanks for your attention. Questions?

26. CICS 09 September 2010 26 NOMADS Update  Real-time Server supported 24x7 by NCEP & WOC  Ability to “ slice and dice ” by domain, resolution, variable, ensemble membership  Access to NCEP ’ s operational data sets as they are being generated  Short-term archive ~ month  Geographically-diverse backup server to ensure operational availability  Quarterly updates expected between NCO & EMC 26