1. Environmental Scan for Rehabilitation Programme Plan

2. Demographic Trend

3. Population pyramids for 2004, 2010 and 2033 – Ageing trend Mid 2010 Male Female Mid 2004 Female Male Mid 2033 Male Female

4. Elderly Population in Hong Kong For the time being 1 in 8 of population are older persons while 1 in 4 will be older persons by 2033.

5. Impact of the ageing trend In coming decade, we have additional 180,000 older persons (grow by 23%). The disability types with higher prevalence among older persons such as visual impairment, hearing impairment and restriction in body movement will be on rising trend

6. Age profile of persons with disabilities based on 2000 Disability Survey

7. Prevalence of disability by age (based on 2000 Disability Survey) Percentage (%)

8. Total Fertility Rate The total fertility rate has decreased from 1.93 per woman aged 15-49 in 1981 to 0.93 in 2004 0.93

9. Number of birth and median age of first order live birth The no. of birth keeps on deceasing while the median age of mother at first order live birth keeps on increasing. In 2004, about 45% of the first children are born by mother aged 30 or above.

10. Medical advancement According to a HKU study, infants with Congenital Malformation were of shorter gestation, with lower birth weight, born to mother with more advanced age. With advancement in prenatal diagnostic technologies, increasing percentage of birth defects are diagnosed prenatally. Physical or mental abnormality can be avoided or treated through early detection

11. Fetus with physical or mental abnormality

12. Inpatient admissions for congenital anomalies

13. Medical advancement Some diseases such as Polio are also eradicated in HK with the full vaccination Early detection of disability can trigger early treatment Low birth rate together with medical advancement, the cases of inborn disability is expected to drop. Yet, the impact may be offset by the increasing awareness of disabilities of various types.

14. Analysis of Cases Assessed (Ages 0-11 Child Assessment Services) For PH cases in 2000: 81 cerebral palsy, 50 motor coordination disorders and 5 other PI cases. In 2004: 32 cerebral palsy, 746 Developmental Coordination Disorders (DCDs) and 12 other PH cases.

15. Analysis of Cases Assessed (Child Assessment Services and Student Health Service (P.1 –S.7))

16. Mental illness Mental illness is on a rising trend Psychological stress is linked to both the onset and course of a mental illness Life circumstances such as unemployment, relationship breakdown, bereavement and major physical illness or injury were linked to depression and anxiety disorders.

17. Number of suicide deaths and suicide death rate No. of suicide deaths Number per 100000 population Suicide death is on a rising trend.

18. Unemployment rate in HK for the past two decades % The unemployment rate in the past decade fluctuated on a rising trend.

19. Attendances of day rehabilitation service - Psychiatric day hospital The number of attendance of rehabilitation service increased by 10% per year before 2003/04. Note: Figure for 2003/04 might be affected by SARS

20. SOPC attendances - Psychiatric SOPC AttendancesSOP new cases The SOPC attendances increased by 6.5% per year Note: Figure for 2003/04 might be affected by SARS

21. Inpatient admissions for mental illness Note: Figure for 2003 might be affected by SARS

22. Community Psychiatric Service No. of attendances/home visits Notes: (1) Covered CPNS home visits only in 1997/98-1998/99. Covered CPNS homes visits and CPT activities in 1999/00-2002/03. Covered CPS activities (merging of CPNS and CPT) in 2003/04-2004/05 (2) Figure for 2003/04 might be affected by SARS

23. Rehabilitative Services provided to mentally ill and ex-mentally ill persons by SWD

24. Waiting lists for rehabilitative services provided to mentally ill and ex-mentally ill persons by SWD Note: no central waiting list for training and activity centre for ex-mentally ill persons is kept by SWD from 2005 onwards.

25. Waiting time for Rehabilitative Services provided to mentally ill persons by SWD months Note: no central waiting list for training and activity centre for ex-mentally ill persons is kept by SWD from 2005 onwards.

26. External factors affecting the occurrence of disabilities -Occupational Injury Decreasing trend in occupational injuries in the past few years

27. No. of cases under the Employees ’ Compensation Ordinance resulted in permanent loss of earning capacity A mild decreasing trend observed in the past few years.

28. Traffic accidents and casualties

29. Claims for Criminal and Law Enforcement Injuries Compensation and Traffic Accident Victims Assistance CLEIC claims TAVA claims A mild decreasing trend for CLEIC claims but a mild increasing trend for TAVA

30. Conclusions in respect of future disability trend The cases of inborn disability are subject to two opposing forces of medical advancement and higher probability of congenital malformation due to first born at higher age. Cases of intellectual disabilities will be rising. Based on the current trend, the cases of mental illness will continue to increase in coming years. The decreasing trend of disabilities arising from occupational injuries should continue as the growing number of employment in the service sector which are subject to less risk of industrial or occupational injuries.

31. Enrolment of students with disabilities in special schools (1999/00-2004/05) Note: Children with autistic disorder studying in special schools are usually affiliated with intellectual disability, hence they are grouped under the category of intellectual disability.

32. Enrolment of students in special schools by type of disability in 2004 Total: 6381 About 80% with intellectual disabilities Note: Children with autistic disorder studying in special schools are usually affiliated with intellectual disability, hence they are grouped under the category of intellectual disability

33. Enrolment of students with visual, hearing, physical, intellectual disability or autistic disorders in ordinary schools

34. Distribution of students in ordinary primary school by type of disability in 2004 Total: 1830

35. Distribution of students in ordinary secondary school by type of disability in 2004 Total: 966

36. Number of children referred for admission from ordinary school to special school The rate of reverting to special school is about 5 to 7 % of the enrolment in ordinary school.

37. Employment by industry sectors for the whole economy in 2004

38. The training programmes are adjusted to suit the market demand for commercial and services workers No. of trainees Some old programmes were replaced by new ones.

39. Employment status of graduates of 2000-2002 Ave. monthly salary: $3,315 Ave. monthly salary: $2,766 Ave. monthly salary: $2,392

40. Selective Placements by Disability Group

41. Selective Placements by Occupational Group

42. Selective placements by salary range

43. Provision of supported employment provided by SWD

44. Total demand for supported employment services provided by SWD

45. Average waiting time for sheltered workshop and supported employment (months)

46. Financial support to PWDs - CSSA/DA Some 68,000 PWDs (aged below 60) receive financial support through CSSA or DA in mid 2004. CSSA (Permanent Disability category) NDA HDA All

47. Comment and discussion