1. Annular Variability and Change John C. Fyfe Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis

2. Acknowledging Boer and Flato Monahan, Ambaum, Stephenson, North, Lorenz and Teng Saenko, Zickfeld, Eby, Spence, Montenegro, Weaver, England and Stone

3. Arctic Oscillation

5. Antarctic Oscillation

6. Model has realistic annular modes, with positive trends under forced change Model does not suggest stratospheric involvement Conclusions

7. Main Directions Since 1999 Improving our basic understanding of the annular modes Assessing the impact of annular trends on the Southern Ocean

8. Analog Device for Climate Change

9. Climate Variability in the Past

10. Climate Variability in the Future X

11. The Southern Ocean Antarctica

12. Antarctic Oscillation

13. Zonal Wind Stress

14. ACC

15. Böning et al., Nature Geoscience, 2008

16. Winds Strengthen Isopycnals Steepen Eddies Strengthen Isopycnals Flatten But eddies are not resolved in GCMs

17. ACC Transport with Resolution

18. 55ºS Antarctica CO 2 uptake DIC removal CO 2 outgassing DIC supply westerlies Human CO 2 emissions

19. Air-to-Sea Flux of CO 2 Outgas Uptake

20. Le Quére et al., Science, 2008

21. Adapted from Gille, Science, 2002

23. Conclusions Models predict intensifying ACC Models predict more carbon uptake Warming is attributed to human activity

24. Annular Variability and Change John C. Fyfe Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis