1. Drivers of Productivity Growth in Ghana’s Cocoa Sector Marcella VIGNERI Overseas Development Institute - London Ghana Strategy Forum Accra - November 16, 2007

2. Cocoa Smallholders A population of 700,000 earning 57% of their income from the cash crop A population of 700,000 earning 57% of their income from the cash crop Between 2001 and 2003 total production has doubled Between 2001 and 2003 total production has doubled But cocoa is a perennial crop: new planting takes between 3/5 yrs to reach full production. But cocoa is a perennial crop: new planting takes between 3/5 yrs to reach full production. How has this increase come about?

3. Research findings Two rounds of a panel survey carried out in 2002 and 2004 on 441 cocoa farmers Two rounds of a panel survey carried out in 2002 and 2004 on 441 cocoa farmers (Oxford University) Close to the IC border (W) Close to the IC border (W) Southern BA (away from Savanna) Southern BA (away from Savanna) Clusters in new (WS) and traditional (A) cocoa growing areas Clusters in new (WS) and traditional (A) cocoa growing areas

4. The facts Growth in these data does not mirror the extent of growth observed in the aggregate – 33 percent Land under cocoa increased by 20 percent Land under cocoa increased by 20 percent Production per unit of land increased by 8 percent Production per unit of land increased by 8 percent Labour supply on cocoa has more than doubled: Labour supply on cocoa has more than doubled:  This increase almost entirely driven by household labour Fertiliser use has gone up by a factor of 10, and up to four times more farmers have used it on their farms Fertiliser use has gone up by a factor of 10, and up to four times more farmers have used it on their farms Nearly all farms were sprayed in 2003/04 (up from 81 percent in 2002) Nearly all farms were sprayed in 2003/04 (up from 81 percent in 2002)  on average of 4.22 spraying applications  of which 46 percent on carried out by the government

5. The role of land (full bearing tree stock) Strong Inverse Relationship -> Smaller farms obtain higher yields, why? Higher (household) labour use persists  Higher yields observed across all regions  Strong evidence of greater productivity on smaller farms

6. What do regression results suggest? Bogyampa, Brong Ahafo: © R. Venugopal 2002 Labour productivity has had a 7 percent increase on cocoa yields Labour productivity has had a 7 percent increase on cocoa yields Higher rates of fertilizer adoption increased productivity by 5 percent Higher rates of fertilizer adoption increased productivity by 5 percent Substantial effect of farm spraying Substantial effect of farm spraying virtually all lack pod virtually all farms revisited in 2004 reported substantially reducing share of land lost to black pod Good rainfall spell in months preceding the harvest in 2004 had a bumper effect on yields across all regions …however… Regional differences matter volume of production and yields on full bearing farms increased mainly in Western Sefwi (by means of 2002 young tree stock coming into full bearing)

7. Policy Implications Fertilizer adoption increased production and productivity Fertilizer adoption increased production and productivity Spraying exercise (government sponsored and owned) very effective Spraying exercise (government sponsored and owned) very effective Providing the right incentives to farmers enables to benefit and learn from better/best farming practices Providing the right incentives to farmers enables to benefit and learn from better/best farming practices Technology of production remains unchanged: largely based on use of labour (mostly households’) and land (on the extensive margin) Technology of production remains unchanged: largely based on use of labour (mostly households’) and land (on the extensive margin) Traditional method of production unsustainable: there is not going to be any forest land to expand further production in new areas Traditional method of production unsustainable: there is not going to be any forest land to expand further production in new areas Need greater incentives to promote replanting Need greater incentives to promote replanting Risks from protracting inaction

8. Thanks Ekutuase, Ashanti: © R. Venugopal 2002