1. Air Quality Modelling Applications Canadian Meteorological Centre Meteorological Service of Canada Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004 Air Quality Modelling Applications Louis-Philippe Crevier With contributions from: Sophie Cousineau Véronique Bouchet Mourad Sassi Sylvain Ménard Richard Moffet Dave Fox Colin diCenzo Colleen Farrell Gilles Morneau Nedka Pentcheva Hong Lin Mike Moran Paul Makar Air Quality Modelling Applications Division, CMC

2. Air Quality Modelling Applications Canadian Meteorological Centre Meteorological Service of Canada Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004 Overview Present AQ modelling applications activities across MSC Identify a few interesting results along the way

3. Air Quality Modelling Applications Canadian Meteorological Centre Meteorological Service of Canada Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004 Topics PM Transboundary Transport Assessment Emissions trading study ICARTT support and real time AURAMS runs CHRONOS real time scenarios Regional modelling activities Changes to emissions processing

4. Air Quality Modelling Applications Canadian Meteorological Centre Meteorological Service of Canada Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004 PM Transboundary Transport Assessment Joint modelling effort with US EPA. AURAMS, REMSAD and CMAQ scenarios were used to prepare input for the modelling chapter CMAQ input prepared by PYR using « emissions ON/OFF » scenarios AURAMS: First policy application for AURAMS Tried to evaluate the impact, in 2020, of proposed legislation on ambient concentrations of PM 4 emissions reduction scenarios were analysed using 2 case studies (summer 1995 and winter 1998) Results: The additional legislation provides benefits wrt legislation already in place or coming into effect in the next few years Changes in atmospheric PM in eastern North America in response to changes in PM gaseous precursors are expected to vary strongly by season and in some areas to vary non-proportionally and even non- directionally CMC/ARQI/PYR

5. Air Quality Modelling Applications Canadian Meteorological Centre Meteorological Service of Canada Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004 Scenario description ScenarioYearSeason Base Case1995Summer Control Case2010SummerCurrent + already passed legislation Control Case2020Summer Policy Case2010SummerAdditional set of policies on top of Control Case (e.g. Clear Skies) Policy Case2020Summer Base Case1998Winter Control Case2010Winter Control Case2020Winter Policy Case2010Winter Policy Case2020Winter * * * * CMC

6. Air Quality Modelling Applications Canadian Meteorological Centre Meteorological Service of Canada Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004 July 8-18 Feb. 7-15 PM 2.5 SO 4 PM 2.5 NO 3 PM 2.5 NH 4 2020P - 2020B Scenario “Deltas” for SO2 and NOx Emission Reductions, July 1995 & Feb. 1998 Cases (AURAMS) CMC/ARQI Example AURAMS input to PM Assessment

7. Air Quality Modelling Applications Canadian Meteorological Centre Meteorological Service of Canada Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004 Evaluation of Emissions Trading scenarios Work under Ozone Annex involving NRCan, MSC, EPS and EPA Goal: Assuming a cap-and-trade system for the EGU sector existed in Canada, evaluate the potential impacts of different configurations of the system e.g. cross-border trading vs no cross-border trading A new Canadian module for the Integrated Planning Model (IPM) was created and is used to predict the impact of regulations and market pressures on the electric generation sector until 2020 CMC

8. Air Quality Modelling Applications Canadian Meteorological Centre Meteorological Service of Canada Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004 Integrated Planning Model Simulates the EGU sector and the different market constraints it is subjected to i.e. fuel prices, environmental regulations, plant maintenance, energy demand vs capacity Allows for fuel switching, installation of abatement technology, plant shut-down, plant construction and trading of emissions allowances 2. Evaluate constraints for each plant 3. Determine best course of action for each plant 4. Create new generation capacity, if required 1. Calculate energy demand and capacity for next model year IPM calculates NOx and SO2 emissions for each plant. A post processing is required to get other emissions. CMC

9. Air Quality Modelling Applications Canadian Meteorological Centre Meteorological Service of Canada Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004 Planned AURAMS runs 2 trading scenarios to evaluate No cross-border trading Cross-border trading allowed AURAMS East 42 km configuration will be used with same episodes as in PM Assessment Winter and summer cases in years 2010 and 2020 will be evaluated Once East is done AURAMS West 21 km config will be used to evaluate impact on BC and Prairies CMC

10. Air Quality Modelling Applications Canadian Meteorological Centre Meteorological Service of Canada Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004 Current Status of IPM runs ScenarioYearSeasonStatus Base Case1995Summerrunning Base Case1998Winterrunning Cross-border2010Summerready to run 2020Winter 2010Summer 2020Winter No cross-border2010SummerWaiting for IPM emissions 2020Winter 2010Summer 2020Winter CMC

11. Air Quality Modelling Applications Canadian Meteorological Centre Meteorological Service of Canada Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004 Example EGU emissions for two scenarios CMC 23% SO 2 emissions reduction for « No cross-border trading » 27% NO x emissions reduction for « No cross-border trading »

12. Air Quality Modelling Applications Canadian Meteorological Centre Meteorological Service of Canada Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004 Real-time & Ensemble Forecasts Daily run of AURAMS: 48h forecast at 42 km over East Domain 48h forecast at 21 km over West Domain (almost ready) Western forecasts with AURAMS being set-up: For PYR and PNR regional offices Preparation for Prairie 2005 For ensemble forecast [ UBC project (R. Stull, L. DeRelle) ] CMC/ARQI/PYR/PNR

13. Air Quality Modelling Applications Canadian Meteorological Centre Meteorological Service of Canada Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004 CMC modelling support for ICARTT AURAMS 1 48h forecast every day CHRONOS 2 48h forecasts every day 00 UTC: same as operational forecast, more outputs 12 UTC: experimental ground-level ozone assimilation Special set of forward/back trajectories made available 4 times per day Products were timely, robust and proved useful Similar set-up is being constructed for Prairie 2005 CMC/AQRB/ATL

14. Air Quality Modelling Applications Canadian Meteorological Centre Meteorological Service of Canada Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004 Field Campaign Support (ICARTT / PRAIRIE 2005) GEM 2.5 km output Trajectories AURAMS output CMC/AQRB/ATL

15. Air Quality Modelling Applications Canadian Meteorological Centre Meteorological Service of Canada Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004 AURAMS/CHRONOS Performances GridTimestepTIME (on IBM, 1 node, 8 CPUs) AURAMS EAST (42 km res) 85x105x28900s2h30 / 24h AURAMS WEST (21 km res) 148x124x28900s6h / 24h AURAMS CONT (42 km res) 155x101x28900s4h30 / 24h CHRONOS CONT (21 km res) 350x250x241h2h45 / 48h Nonetheless, during ICARTT, AURAMS 00 UTC 48h forecast was typically available by 8 EDT CMC

16. Air Quality Modelling Applications Canadian Meteorological Centre Meteorological Service of Canada CHRONOS operational version (public) 1 run/day (00Z), 48h forecast, continental domain, 21km spatial res, no data assimilation, predicts O3, PM2.5 mass, PM10 mass CHRONOS experimental version (ICARTT) 2 runs/day (00Z and 12Z), 48h forecast, continental domain, 21 km spatial res, assimilation of surface O3 data, predicts O3, PM2.5 mass, PM10 mass, some speciated information in <2.5  m CHRONOS real-time scenarios (MSC) 7 runs/day (00z), 24h forecast, continental domain, 21km spatial res, no data assimilation On/Off runs for different regions CHRONOS Applications CMC

17. Air Quality Modelling Applications Canadian Meteorological Centre Meteorological Service of Canada Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004 CHRONOS Real Time Scenario Runs Objective Experiment with real-time applications to support CWS implementation Current set-up Evaluation for both ozone and PM2.5 (starting in 2003) Comparison based CWS standard exceedances 7 CHRONOS scenarios are run everyday with different emissions reductions (anthropogenic emissions turned off for specific regions) Conclusions: Real-time scenarios are feasible and maintainable We are ready for more subtle emissions reductions scenarios CMC

18. Air Quality Modelling Applications Canadian Meteorological Centre Meteorological Service of Canada Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004 CMC # of days exceeding ozone CWS for modelled ozone June 1 st to Sept. 30 th 2003 Preliminary results for 2004 are comparable

19. Air Quality Modelling Applications Canadian Meteorological Centre Meteorological Service of Canada Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004 CMC # of days exceeding PM 2.5 CWS for modelled ozone June 1 st to Sept. 30 th 2003 Preliminary results for 2004 are comparable

20. Air Quality Modelling Applications Canadian Meteorological Centre Meteorological Service of Canada Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004 Pacific and Yukon Improve understanding of role of ammonia in chemistry and sea salt (G&Cs). A/Q ensemble experiments (with UBC). Add AURAMS and CHRONOS output to the ensemble. Impacts of AQ on visibility and lines of sight straddling the border (CMAQ application). Daily real-time CMAQ runs (UBC, regular model exercise increases understanding of transboundary flows). Upgrade CMAQ and SMOKE software of UBC AQ modelling system. Various emission scenarios (e.g. marine vessel emissions) runs and sensitivity tests using CMAQ on the NW- AIRQUEST domain. PYR

21. Air Quality Modelling Applications Canadian Meteorological Centre Meteorological Service of Canada Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004 Ontario Region Modelling activities AURAMS application, focus on Great Lake area to support airshed characterization (BAQS) Collaborating with Paul Makar to prepare set-up for AURAMS run in support of SwOn/SeMi 2006 CHRONOS evaluation for 2003 for specific Ontario sites is underway Ontario

22. Air Quality Modelling Applications Canadian Meteorological Centre Meteorological Service of Canada Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004 Accounting for transboundary flow (GDAD of CWS) Three scenarios are run with AURAMS All anthropogenic sources (A) Sources within the jurisdiction set to zero (B) Sources outside the jurisdiction set to zero (C) Total concentration = Local + transboundary + background Local (jurisdiction) component: A - B Transboundary component: A - C Background: B + C - A Quebec

23. Air Quality Modelling Applications Canadian Meteorological Centre Meteorological Service of Canada Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004 Results for Trois-Rivieres (URS) Quebec

24. Air Quality Modelling Applications Canadian Meteorological Centre Meteorological Service of Canada Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004 Atlantic Region Evaluate Canadian contributions to local air quality problem. Ran CHRONOS for a widespread ozone episode from June 2001. Re-ran CHRONOS with all the Canadian emissions turned off, subtracted the difference to get the contribution from Canadian emission sources Compared the results with the measurements. Notes Although there were some sites with elevated PM, the selected period was not much of a PM episode. Using CHRONOS/AURAMS with the same grid and configuration that Quebec region uses. Preliminary conclusions: On good air quality days with respect to ozone, the % contribution from local sources is greater than from the US. On a bad AQ day wrt ozone, the contribution from the US is greater. Local contributions appear to be greater for PM than for ozone, although a case which was a worse PM episode may show something different. Atlantic

25. Air Quality Modelling Applications Canadian Meteorological Centre Meteorological Service of Canada Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004 Canadian Contribution to PM at Sydney Atlantic

26. Air Quality Modelling Applications Canadian Meteorological Centre Meteorological Service of Canada Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004 PNR Annual CMAQ Model Run (2002) Objectives Transboundary Transport – CAN/US, Provincial Provincial Sulphur and Nitrogen Budgets Regional Acid Deposition Future Emission Scenarios Status MM5 runs on Coarse Domain (Completed) Preparation of Emission Inputs (Ongoing) CMAQ runs on Coarse Domain (Start in Nov. 2004)

27. Air Quality Modelling Applications Canadian Meteorological Centre Meteorological Service of Canada Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004 36km 12km 4km Coarse Domain Northern Domain AB-SK Domain Oil Sands Edm-Calg PNR CMAQ Modelling Domains PNR

28. Air Quality Modelling Applications Canadian Meteorological Centre Meteorological Service of Canada Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004 PNR Support Projects 4km Area and Mobile Emissions (Completed) Gridded Agricultural Activity Data (Completed) Northern Emissions (Ongoing) Projected AB emissions for year 2010 (Ongoing) Improving Biogenic Emissions by using the Canadian National Forest Inventory (Ongoing) PNR

29. Air Quality Modelling Applications Canadian Meteorological Centre Meteorological Service of Canada Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004 The SMOKE emissions processor is in the process of being adapted for MSC AQ models Impacts: More control on emissions data Quicker turn-around for emissions inventory QA/QC Still limited by data availability (year 2000 inventory) Status: Official SMOKE release (2.1) with PS capability Initial ADOM-II speciation files for SMOKE is ready All components of SMOKE are working except biogenic emissions The first version is currently being tested with AURAMS & CHRONOS CMC/ARQI/PNR/NRC Adaptation of SMOKE for MSC Models * Collaboration with Weimin Jiang’s group at NRC, with AQRB scientists (Moran, Makar) and Dave Fox (EC PNR)

30. Air Quality Modelling Applications Canadian Meteorological Centre Meteorological Service of Canada Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004 SMOKE Emissions – Western Domain NH 3 area emissions (g/s) – summer – 22 GMT, resolution : 5km NO mobile emissions (g/s) – summer - 22 GMT, resolution: 5km CMC/ARQI/PNR/NRC Based on PNR 4 km emissions inventory

31. Air Quality Modelling Applications Canadian Meteorological Centre Meteorological Service of Canada Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004 Summary AURAMS has started to be used in policy applications Modelling groups are collaborating and exchanging data (common grids, common inventories) Modelling infrastructures for real-time applications is getting more and more robust

32. Air Quality Modelling Applications Canadian Meteorological Centre Meteorological Service of Canada Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004 Canadian Contribution to Ozone at Sydney Atlantic

33. Air Quality Modelling Applications Canadian Meteorological Centre Meteorological Service of Canada Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004 Model configurations Emissions offEmissions on Base caseNoneAll sources Scenario 1B.C. anth. sourcesBiogenics + all anth. sources Scenario 2Prairie anth. SourcesBiogenics + all anth. sources Scenario 3Atlantic anth. SourcesBiogenics + all anth. sources Scenario 4U.S. anth. SourcesBiogenics + all anth. sources Scenario 5Ontario anth. SourcesBiogenics + all anth. sources Scenario 6Quebec anth. SourcesBiogenics + all anth. sources CMC

34. Air Quality Modelling Applications Canadian Meteorological Centre Meteorological Service of Canada Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004 Ozone annex commitments (1990-2010): Canada PEMA: NO x -44% VOC -20% Ontario: NO x -45% VOC -45% USA PEMA: NO x -36% VOC -38% Quebec Emissions reduction scenarios (mobile sources and ozone annex) NO x (tonnes per year) VOC (tonnes per year)

35. Air Quality Modelling Applications Canadian Meteorological Centre Meteorological Service of Canada Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004 Nb hours of ozone exceedance (> 82 ppb) x Nb grid points (grid 30x30 @ 21km covering eastern Ontario and Quebec). Scenarios Period Base case (1995)Mobile reductionsMobile +NO x /VOC AURAMSCHRONOSAURAMSCHRONOSAURAMSCHRONOS 11-18 July 19991300153336376320 12-21 June 2001171642643122528489 29 July-4 August 2001 628804494235119 NOTE: AURAMS concentrations higher than CHRONOS due to bug in the model (corrected now) Quebec Results

36. Air Quality Modelling Applications Canadian Meteorological Centre Meteorological Service of Canada Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004 CHRONOS (Pudykiewicz et al, Tellus, 1997) Regional in scale, run on continental grid Tri-dimensional, limited area, Eulerian air quality model 21km spatial res. up to 6 km (24 vertical levels) Off line model: Met driver: GEM Emission processor: CEPS Multi-pollutants model: Oxidants: ADOM-II gas phase mechanism, SOA formation (Pandis, 1992) Particles: sectional method (2 bins – PM2.5, PMc), 4 species, (aerosol dynamics limited to sedimentation, sulfate from gas-phase only) Het. Chem: bulk treatment (hetv, based on ISORROPIA – Nenes et al., 1998) Aqueous phase chem: none Emissions: PM2.5 and PMc are assumed to be bulk, no speciation, no further size desaggregation Dynamical & Physical processes Advection: Semi-Lagrangian, non-oscillatory Diffusion: vertical diffusion coef from GEM Convextive mixing: none Cloud process: effect on photolysis rates Dry deposition: simple resistance method Wet deposition: simple (based on LWC & Sundqvist formulae)

37. Air Quality Modelling Applications Canadian Meteorological Centre Meteorological Service of Canada Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004 AURAMS Regional in scale, run on eastern & western grids 42 km spatial res. up to 18 km (28 vertical levels) Off line model: Met driver: GEM & GEM-LAM Emission processor: CEPS Multi-pollutants model: SOA formation (Odum, 1996) Particles: sectional method (12 bins, 0.01 to 40.96  m), 8 species (SO4=, NO3-, NH4+, OC, EC, Sea-salt, CM & aerosol-bound water) Aerosol dynamics: nucl., cond., coag., sedimentation – from CAM (Gong, 2002) Het. Chem: bulk treatment (HETv/ISORROPIA updated), redistribution from Fuchs and Sutugin equation (Na/Cl in development) Aqueous phase chem: based on ADOM mechanism with explicit particle activation Emissions: PM2.5 & PMc disaggregated into 7/12 sizes by primary source type Dynamical & Physical processes Advection: mass conservation Effect of convective mixing: in development Cloud process: effect on photolysis rates, aerosol activation (Jones, 1994), droplet scavenging of intersticial aerosols Dry deposition: new resistance method for gases and size-segregated particles (Zhang, 2001, 2002) Wet deposition: cloud to rain conversion, precipitation scavenging, evaporation

38. Air Quality Modelling Applications Canadian Meteorological Centre Meteorological Service of Canada Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004 AURAMS wet processes and mass consistency Activation/nucleation scavenging of aerosols and cloud droplet spectrum (CCN -> cloud droplets); Aqueous-phase chemistry: including mass transfer of SO2, O3, H2O2, ROOH, HNO3, NH3 and CO2 and oxidation of S(IV) to S(VI) by O3, H2O2, ROOH, and O2 (in the presence of trace metals, e.g., Fe and Mg); vectorized Young & Boris hybrid predictor-corrector algorithm; non-equilibrium mass transfer integrated with the aqueous-phase oxidation reactions; aerosol growth; Rain production and tracer transfer from cloud drops to rain water: use of cloud-to-rain conversion rate (from met model); Size-resolved scavenging of aerosol particles by precipitation (liquid and solid), based on Slinn and Slinn (1981); Irreversible and reversible (equilibrium) scavenging of soluble gases by precipitation (liquid); Scavenging of soluble gases (HNO3 and NH3 only) by snow/ice, analogy to riming; Release of tracer precipitation evaporation.