1. Evaluation of the Berkeley “Soda Tax”
Jennifer Falbe, ScD, MPH
Kristine Madsen, MD, MPH
UC Berkeley School of Public Health

2. Excise tax on SSB Distributors
Measure D
Excise tax on SSB Distributors
An Added caloric sweetener may take any form, including but not limited to a liquid, syrup, and powder, whether or not frozen. “Added caloric sweetener” includes, without limitation, sucrose, fructose, glucose, other sugars, and high fructose corn syrup, but does not include a substance that exclusively contains natural, concentrated, or reconstituted fruit or vegetable juice or any combination thereof.
the largest volume, in fluid ounces, that would typically be produced from the Added caloric sweeteners shall be determined based on the manufacturer’s instructions or, if the Distributor uses the Added caloric sweeteners to produce a Sugar-sweetened beverage, the regular practice of the Distributor.
Excemptions
2. “Sugar-sweetened beverage” shall not include any of the following:
a. Any beverage in which milk is the primary ingredient, i.e., the ingredient constituting a greater volume of the product than any other;
b. Any beverage for medical use;
c. Any liquid sold for use for weight reduction as a meal replacement;
d. Any product commonly referred to as “infant formula” or “baby formula”; or
e. Any alcoholic beverage.
To any Distribution of a Sugar-sweetened beverage product to a Retailer with less than $100,000 in annual gross receipts
This Ordinance provides for a small business exemption for Retailers who transport sugar-sweetened beverage products into the City themselves and then sell those products directly to consumers.

3. Excise tax on SSB Distributors
Measure D
Excise tax on SSB Distributors
$0.01 /oz
≥2 cals/oz
An Added caloric sweetener may take any form, including but not limited to a liquid, syrup, and powder, whether or not frozen. “Added caloric sweetener” includes, without limitation, sucrose, fructose, glucose, other sugars, and high fructose corn syrup, but does not include a substance that exclusively contains natural, concentrated, or reconstituted fruit or vegetable juice or any combination thereof.
the largest volume, in fluid ounces, that would typically be produced from the Added caloric sweeteners shall be determined based on the manufacturer’s instructions or, if the Distributor uses the Added caloric sweeteners to produce a Sugar-sweetened beverage, the regular practice of the Distributor.
Excemptions
2. “Sugar-sweetened beverage” shall not include any of the following:
a. Any beverage in which milk is the primary ingredient, i.e., the ingredient constituting a greater volume of the product than any other;
b. Any beverage for medical use;
c. Any liquid sold for use for weight reduction as a meal replacement;
d. Any product commonly referred to as “infant formula” or “baby formula”; or
e. Any alcoholic beverage.
To any Distribution of a Sugar-sweetened beverage product to a Retailer with less than $100,000 in annual gross receipts
This Ordinance provides for a small business exemption for Retailers who transport sugar-sweetened beverage products into the City themselves and then sell those products directly to consumers.

4. Excise tax on SSB Distributors
Measure D
Excise tax on SSB Distributors
$0.01 /oz
≥2 cals/oz
Regular soda
Sweetened tea & coffee
“Fruit” drinks
Sports drinks
Energy drinks
Powdered, syrup or frozen
An Added caloric sweetener may take any form, including but not limited to a liquid, syrup, and powder, whether or not frozen. “Added caloric sweetener” includes, without limitation, sucrose, fructose, glucose, other sugars, and high fructose corn syrup, but does not include a substance that exclusively contains natural, concentrated, or reconstituted fruit or vegetable juice or any combination thereof.
the largest volume, in fluid ounces, that would typically be produced from the Added caloric sweeteners shall be determined based on the manufacturer’s instructions or, if the Distributor uses the Added caloric sweeteners to produce a Sugar-sweetened beverage, the regular practice of the Distributor.
Excemptions
2. “Sugar-sweetened beverage” shall not include any of the following:
a. Any beverage in which milk is the primary ingredient, i.e., the ingredient constituting a greater volume of the product than any other;
b. Any beverage for medical use;
c. Any liquid sold for use for weight reduction as a meal replacement;
d. Any product commonly referred to as “infant formula” or “baby formula”; or
e. Any alcoholic beverage.
To any Distribution of a Sugar-sweetened beverage product to a Retailer with less than $100,000 in annual gross receipts
This Ordinance provides for a small business exemption for Retailers who transport sugar-sweetened beverage products into the City themselves and then sell those products directly to consumers.

5. Excise tax on SSB Distributors
Measure D
Milks
100% juice
Medical beverages
Alcoholic drinks
Excise tax on SSB Distributors
$0.01 /oz
≥2 cals/oz
Regular soda
Sweetened tea & coffee
“Fruit” drinks
Sports drinks
Energy drinks
Powdered, syrup or frozen
An Added caloric sweetener may take any form, including but not limited to a liquid, syrup, and powder, whether or not frozen. “Added caloric sweetener” includes, without limitation, sucrose, fructose, glucose, other sugars, and high fructose corn syrup, but does not include a substance that exclusively contains natural, concentrated, or reconstituted fruit or vegetable juice or any combination thereof.
the largest volume, in fluid ounces, that would typically be produced from the Added caloric sweeteners shall be determined based on the manufacturer’s instructions or, if the Distributor uses the Added caloric sweeteners to produce a Sugar-sweetened beverage, the regular practice of the Distributor.
Excemptions
2. “Sugar-sweetened beverage” shall not include any of the following:
a. Any beverage in which milk is the primary ingredient, i.e., the ingredient constituting a greater volume of the product than any other;
b. Any beverage for medical use;
c. Any liquid sold for use for weight reduction as a meal replacement;
d. Any product commonly referred to as “infant formula” or “baby formula”; or
e. Any alcoholic beverage.
To any Distribution of a Sugar-sweetened beverage product to a Retailer with less than $100,000 in annual gross receipts
This Ordinance provides for a small business exemption for Retailers who transport sugar-sweetened beverage products into the City themselves and then sell those products directly to consumers.

6. Measure D General tax  simple majority
“Accountability is written into the measure: Measure D creates a panel of experts in child nutrition, healthcare, and education to make recommendations to the City Council about funding programs that improve children’s health across Berkeley. The panel will issue annual public reports detailing the impact of funded programs.
This is a system that has proven to work in Berkeley. The City and citizens of Berkeley have a decades-long, ongoing commitment to child health and nutrition. City Council has a proven track record of respecting the recommendations of their boards and commissions.” (Berkeley vs. Big Soda website)
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7. Measure D General tax  simple majority 76% voted yes
“Accountability is written into the measure: Measure D creates a panel of experts in child nutrition, healthcare, and education to make recommendations to the City Council about funding programs that improve children’s health across Berkeley. The panel will issue annual public reports detailing the impact of funded programs.
This is a system that has proven to work in Berkeley. The City and citizens of Berkeley have a decades-long, ongoing commitment to child health and nutrition. City Council has a proven track record of respecting the recommendations of their boards and commissions.” (Berkeley vs. Big Soda website)
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8. Measure D General tax  simple majority 76% voted yes
Panel of experts: to advise on allocating revenues to “reduce the consumption of [SSBs]…”
“Accountability is written into the measure: Measure D creates a panel of experts in child nutrition, healthcare, and education to make recommendations to the City Council about funding programs that improve children’s health across Berkeley. The panel will issue annual public reports detailing the impact of funded programs.
This is a system that has proven to work in Berkeley. The City and citizens of Berkeley have a decades-long, ongoing commitment to child health and nutrition. City Council has a proven track record of respecting the recommendations of their boards and commissions.” (Berkeley vs. Big Soda website)
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9. Measure D General tax  simple majority 76% voted yes
Panel of experts: to advise on allocating revenues to “reduce the consumption of [SSBs]…”
Must have experience in community or school-based food and nutrition programs, early childhood nutrition education, or researching/evaluating relevant public health issues/programs; or
Be a licensed medical practitioner
“Accountability is written into the measure: Measure D creates a panel of experts in child nutrition, healthcare, and education to make recommendations to the City Council about funding programs that improve children’s health across Berkeley. The panel will issue annual public reports detailing the impact of funded programs.
This is a system that has proven to work in Berkeley. The City and citizens of Berkeley have a decades-long, ongoing commitment to child health and nutrition. City Council has a proven track record of respecting the recommendations of their boards and commissions.” (Berkeley vs. Big Soda website)
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10. Measure D Berkeley Healthy Child Coalition
wide range of community organizations, parents, people from the Berkeley Unified School District, and retirees and other former members of the Berkeley Public Health Department.
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11. Measure D Berkeley Healthy Child Coalition
Cuts to Berkeley’s school garden/cooking program & Farm Fresh Choice
wide range of community organizations, parents, people from the Berkeley Unified School District, and retirees and other former members of the Berkeley Public Health Department.
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12. Measure D Berkeley Healthy Child Coalition
Cuts to Berkeley’s school garden/cooking program & Farm Fresh Choice
Support from school board & city council (unanimous), Berkeley NAACP, Latinos Unidos de Berkeley, AHA, etc.
wide range of community organizations, parents, people from the Berkeley Unified School District, and retirees and other former members of the Berkeley Public Health Department.
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13. Measure D
Most expensive campaign in Berkeley history (>$2 million by opposition)
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14. Measure D
Most expensive campaign in Berkeley history (>$2 million by opposition)
American Beverage Association
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15. Yes on D (Berkeley vs. Big Soda)

16. Yes on D (Berkeley vs. Big Soda)

17. No on D (American Beverage Assoc)
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18. No on D (American Beverage Assoc)
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19. Measure E (San Francisco)
$0.02/oz excise tax
Earmarked for  nutrition, physical activity, and health programs in public schools, parks, and elsewhere  2/3rd majority

20. Measure E (San Francisco)
$0.02/oz excise tax
Earmarked for  nutrition, physical activity, and health programs in public schools, parks, and elsewhere  2/3rd majority
>$9 million spent by opposition
55.6% voted yes  Failed

21. Measure E (San Francisco)
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22. Berkeley D: Implementation
Implementation date: January 1, 2015
Actual: March, 2015  $116,000 collected in April
Projected: $1.2 million in 1st year
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23. Evaluation CITIES: Berkeley (intervention), SF, & Oakland (comparison)
PRICES: Examine extent to which tax is passed-through to retail prices.
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24. Evaluation
CITIES: Berkeley (intervention), SF, & Oakland (comparison)
PRICES: Examine extent to which tax is passed-through to retail prices.
Distributors
Retailers
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25. Evaluation
CITIES: Berkeley (intervention), SF, & Oakland (comparison)
PRICES: Examine extent to which tax is passed-through to retail prices.
CONSUMPTION: Changes in consumption of SSBs
Media analysis of news coverage (Berkeley Media Studies Group)
Distributors
Retailers
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26. Design Natural experiment Prices: Longitudinal
Consumption: Repeated cross-sections

27. Design Natural experiment 3 cities: San Francisco, Berkeley, & Oakland
Prices: Longitudinal
Consumption: Repeated cross-sections
3 cities: San Francisco, Berkeley, & Oakland
2 lower-income neighborhoods per city
Matched (to extent possible) on foot traffic and census tract race & income variables

28. Price assessment
Top selling SSBs (soda, tea, coffee, sports, energy, “fruit”), diet counterparts, water, 100% OJ, and milk

29. Price assessment
Top selling SSBs (soda, tea, coffee, sports, energy, “fruit”), diet counterparts, water, 100% OJ, and milk
Chain grocery, small grocery, drugstores, convenience stores, liquor stores, and fast food restaurants in each neighborhood (or the closest)

30. Price assessment
Top selling SSBs (soda, tea, coffee, sports, energy, “fruit”), diet counterparts, water, 100% OJ, and milk
Chain grocery, small grocery, drugstores, convenience stores, liquor stores, and fast food restaurants in each neighborhood (or the closest)
Most common single serving size (e.g., 20 oz bottle) in all stores and common larger sizes (e.g., 2 liters, 12 packs) in a subsample of stores

31. Baseline prices Sample of beverages Berkeley (n=24)
SF & Oakland (n=50)
Mean soda (20 oz)
$1.74
Mean diet soda (20 oz)
$1.72
$1.76
Mean water (20 oz)
$1.45
$1.58
Arizona tea (23 oz)
$0.97
$1.00
Gatorade (20 oz)
$1.61
$1.57

32. Pass-through: example
Example of complete pass-through
12 *12 ounces *$0.01= $1.44
$7.43-$5.99=$1.44

33. Change in inventory

34. Consumption Intercept surveys Beverage frequency questionnaire
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35. Consumption Intercept surveys Beverage frequency questionnaire
Knowledge & attitudes about SSBs and the tax
Demographics
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36. Consumption Intercept surveys Beverage frequency questionnaire
Knowledge & attitudes about SSBs and the tax
Demographics
Post-survey: perceived changes in purchasing habits (e.g., changing stores or cities from which they buy beverages, stocking up)
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37. Baseline surveys Consumption: mean (SD) frequency per day
How often do you drink regular soda...
Berkeley SF
Oakland
SSBs
1.2 (2.2)
1.1 (1.7)
1.4 (1.7)
Soda
0.5 (1.4)
0.4 (0.7)
0.5 (0.8)
Water
3.5 (3.2)
4.4 (3.6)
3.6 (3.0)

38. Baseline Surveys

39. Baseline Surveys

40. Discussion
Lay press (e.g., on Pass-through and Distributor complaints

41. Discussion Lay press (e.g., on Pass-through and Distributor complaints
“Two receipts, left, from…Berkeley, and right, from …Clayton, show no soft drink tax was charged on a 1.5 liter Pepsi in both cities.” (Dan Rosenstrauch/Bay Area News Group)

42. Discussion
Continuing Evaluation: How revenues are used

43. Discussion Continuing Evaluation: How revenues are used
Road map for scaling/possible lessons (to be) learned
Grass roots
Coalition before launching
Anticipating reaction of industry
Branded as Berkeley (us) vs. Big Soda
Strategy: Earmarking vs. general tax + panel of experts
Simplifying impact on business owners

44. Contact: Jen Falbe, ScD, MPH | jfalbe@berkeley.edu