1. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Update on Cash Crops Coleman Research Group Presentation Mar. 20, 2015 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

2. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Corn Supply and Use 20112012201320142015 Area Planted(mil. acres)91.997.395.490.689.0 Yield(bu./acre)147.2123.1158.1171.0166.8 Production(mil. bu.)12,36010,75513,82914,21613,595 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.)1,1289898211,2321,777 Imports(mil. bu.)291603625 Total Supply(mil. bu.)13,51711,90414,68615,47215,397 Feed & Residual(mil. bu.)4,5574,3155,0365,3005,275 Ethanol(mil. bu.)5,0004,6415,1345,2005,225 Food, Seed, & Other(mil. bu.)1,4281,3971,3671,3951,410 Exports(mil. bu.)1,5437301,9171,8001,850 Total Use(mil. bu.)12,52811,08313,45413,69513,760 Ending Stocks(mil. bu.)9898211,2321,7771,637 Season-Average Price($/bu.)6.226.894.463.703.50 Source: USDA-WAOB

3. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 20112012201320142015 Area Planted(mil. acres)75.077.276.883.783.5 Yield(bu./acre)41.940.044.047.846.0 Production(mil. bu.)3,0943,0423,3583,9693,800 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.)21516914192385 Imports(mil. bu.)1641722520 Total Supply(mil. bu.)3,3253,2523,5704,0864,205 Crush(mil. bu.)1,7031,6891,7341,7951,840 Seed & Residual(mil. bu.)8810597116 Exports(mil. bu.)1,3651,3171,6471,7901,820 Total Use(mil. bu.)3,1553,1113,4783,7013,775 Ending Stocks(mil. bu.)16914192385430 Season-Average Price($/bu.)12.5014.4013.0010.209.00 Source: USDA-WAOB

4. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 20112012201320142015 Area Planted(mil. acres)54.455.356.256.855.5 Yield(bu./acre)43.746.247.143.745.2 Production(mil. bu.)1,9992,2522,1352,0262,125 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.)862743718590691 Imports(mil. bu.)112123169160150 Total Supply(mil. bu.)2,9743,1183,0212,7762,966 Food(mil. bu.)941945952960966 Seed(mil. bu.)7673777573 Feed & Residual(mil. bu.)162370226150190 Exports(mil. bu.)1,0511,0121,176900975 Total Use(mil. bu.)2,2312,4002,4312,0852,204 Ending Stocks(mil. bu.)743718590691762 Season-Average Price($/bu.)7.247.776.876.005.10 Source: USDA-WAOB

5. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Top: 2014 Yield Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bu/acre Corn Yields Source: USDA-NASS

6. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Top: 2014 Yield Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bu/acre Soybean Yields Source: USDA-NASS

7. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Winter Wheat Acreage Source: USDA-NASS Top: 2015 Planted Acreage Bottom: Change from last year Units: Thousand acres

8. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Small Grains Summary Source: USDA-NASS SorghumBarleyOats 201320142013201420132014 Area Planted(mil. acres)8.17.13.53.0 2.7 Yield(bu./acre)59.667.671.372.464.167.7 Production(mil. bu.)3924332171776570 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.)153480823625 Imports(mil. bu.)00192397100 Total Supply(mil. bu.)408467316282198194 Feed & Residual(mil. bu.)9211065459785 Food, Seed, & Other(mil. bu.)70301551527577 Exports(mil. bu.)212300141222 Total Use(mil. bu.)374440234209173164 Ending Stocks(mil. bu.)342782732530 Season-Average Price($/bu.)4.283.906.065.353.753.25

9. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB

10. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB

11. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics World Wheat Production Source: USDA-WAOB

12. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics World Weather Source: USDC and USDA

13. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Hog Crush Margin Source: ISU Extension The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 poundsPig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pigSoybean meal: 150 pounds per pig

14. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Cattle Crush Margin Source: ISU Extension The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 poundsFeeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head

15. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB

16. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

17. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

18. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

19. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

20. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Wheat Export Pace Source: USDA-FAS

21. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Wheat Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

22. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Grind for Ethanol

23. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)

24. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Crude Oil Prices Sources: EIA and CME

25. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Strength of the U.S. Dollar Source: Federal Reserve

26. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Current Corn Futures Source: CME Group, 3/17/2015 3.66 3.79

27. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Current Soybean Futures Source: CME Group, 3/17/2015 9.94 9.05

28. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Current Wheat Futures Source: CME Group, 3/17/2015 5.89 5.22

29. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Crop Acreage Source: USDA-NASS

30. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Crop Shifts Source: USDA-NASS

31. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Thoughts for 2015 and Beyond  Supply/demand concerns  Biofuel production and policy, broader energy demand  Export strength/weakness, China’s moves in the corn & wheat markets  Acreage allocation for 2015, Where do the extra acres go? 2014/15 USDA 2015/16 USDA 2015/16 Futures (3/17/15) Corn$3.70$3.50$3.79 Soybeans$10.20$9.00$9.05 Wheat$6.00$5.10$5.22

32. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/