1. MESOSCALE MODELING FOR AIR QUALITY FORECASTING by ROBERT D. BORNSTEIN DEPT. OF METEOROLOGY SAN JOSE STATE UNIVERSITY SAN JOSE, CA USA pblmodel@hotmail.com Prepared for FORUM ON: CHALLENGES IN URBAN METEOROLOGY ROCKVILLE, MD 21-23 SEPT 2004

2. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS CO WORKERS H. Taha, ALTOSTRATUS, SJSU R. Balmori, SJSU J. Ching and S. Dupont, EPS/RTP S. Burian, Univ of Utah S. Stetson, SWS, Inc. D. Byan, Univ of Houston J. Allwine, DHS M. Reynolds, BNL FUNDING AGENCIES DHS, USAID, State of Texas, LBNL, NSF

3. OUTLINE ISSUES IN ISSUES IN –URBAN CLIMATE –URBAN WEATHER –URBAN AIR QUALITY –GLOBAL CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS REQUIRED RESEARCH REQUIRED RESEARCH –FIELD STUDIES –THEORETICAL DEVELOPMENT –MODEL DEVELOPMENT

4. Scales in an Urban Environment

5. OBSERVATIONAL NEEDS: URBAN CLIMATE URBAN PBL URBAN PBL –ROUGHNESS DECELERATION VS UHI ACCELERATION –UHI CONFLUENCE VS BARRIER DIFLUENCE –RA FLUX DIV FROM AEROSOLS ROUGHNESS SUB-LAYER ROUGHNESS SUB-LAYER –U * AS f (z) –PROFILERS FROM: SODARS, LIDARS, RADARS, RASS URBAN CANYON LAYER URBAN CANYON LAYER –LINKAGE B/T ROOFTOP AND CANYON FLOWS –STACKED ASYMMETRIC VORTICIES –WALL INDUCED VERTICAL VELOCITIES URBAN SURFACE RS/GIS DATA BASES FOR URBAN SURFACE RS/GIS DATA BASES FOR –LU/LC –SOIL MOSITURE: UHI VS UCI –ALBEDO, ROUGHNESS, EMISSIVITY –3-D UHI ON ALL SFCS

10. Incorporate Stetson’s high- resolution Houston z o data

11. URBAN MESO-MODELING URBANIZED MESO-MET MODELS URBANIZED MESO-MET MODELS –AEROSOLS AND RFD –PBL EQUATIONS WITH DRAG TERMS –SFC ENERGY AND MOISTURE BALANCES –MM5  WRF ROUGHNESS SUBLAYER MODELS ROUGHNESS SUBLAYER MODELS –REPLACE MONIN-OBUKHOV THEORY –LOWER B.C. FLUXES FROM CANYON MODELS SST (x, y, t) from ocean models SST (x, y, t) from ocean models

12.  From Masson (2000)

13. 1 km uMM5 end of daytime ΔUHI: 8 PM 21 Aug Upper L: MM5 Upper L: MM5 Upper R: uMM5 Upper R: uMM5 Lower L: uMM5-MM5 Lower L: uMM5-MM5 uMM5  1.5 K warmer uMM5  1.5 K warmer Blob is LU/LC error Blob is LU/LC error

14. URBAN EFFECTS ON WEATHER SEA BREEZE FLOWS SEA BREEZE FLOWS –RETARDED MOVEMENT SYNOPTIC FRONTS SYNOPTIC FRONTS –RETARDED MOVEMENT THUNDERSTORMS THUNDERSTORMS –UHI INITIATION VS. BARRIER SPLITTING –PREVIOUS: METROMEX, NYC, AND ATLANTA –AEROSOL MODIFICATIONS –PROJECT HEAT STUDY OBS AND MESO-MODELS REQUIRED OBS AND MESO-MODELS REQUIRED

19. MM5 section of potential T and w through strongest UHI- induced updraft at 1700 UTC. Max w is 4.3 m/s.

20. URBAN-SCALE AIR QUALITY OZONE AIR QUALITY OZONE AIR QUALITY –EMISSIONS –URBAN EFFECTS ON DISPERSION –MEOS-SCALE NETWORKS PM2.5 PM2.5 –SUMMER PHOTOCHEMISTRY –WINTER COMBUSTION DURING ALL WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING ALL WEATHER CONDITIONS IN ALL CLIMATE TYPES IN ALL CLIMATE TYPES –OBS –MESO-MODELS

22. URBAN-CANYON MODELING CANYON SCALE NUMERICAL MODELS CANYON SCALE NUMERICAL MODELS –FOR ER APPLICATIONS –BOTH CFD AND REAL-TIME WIND TUNNEL MODELS PROVIDE WIND TUNNEL MODELS PROVIDE –COMPARISON DATA –PARAMETERIZATION GUIDANCE 2-WAY LINKED MESO & CANYON 2-WAY LINKED MESO & CANYON SCALE MODELS –FOR ER APPLICATIONS –NEED TRANSPORT AND DIFFUSION PROCESSES 2-WAY LINKED INDOOR & OUTDOOR MODELS 2-WAY LINKED INDOOR & OUTDOOR MODELS –ER APPLICATIONS –TRUE DOSAGE CALCULATIONS

23. This and next three are from A. HUBER, EPA/RTP

24. from EPA/RTP WIND TUNNEL

25. ER AIR-QUALITY ER PLANNING FOR ER PLANNING FOR –ACCIDENTAL RELEASES –TERRORIST RELEASES ER PLANNING: NEEDS ER PLANNING: NEEDS –TRACER STUDIES (URBAN 2000, JOINT URBAN, DHS/UDS/ NYC) –SECURE DATA-COMMUNICATIONS –MULTISCALE MODELS (SYNOPTIC, MESO, CANYON, INDOOR) –UNDERSTANDABLE DATA DISPLAY FOR RESPONERS DURING ALL WEATHER CONDITIONS IN ALL CLIMATES DURING ALL WEATHER CONDITIONS IN ALL CLIMATES

28. QUIC Simulation with dd = 215 deg (from M. Brown, LANL) wind vectors at 5 m height

29. from LBNL

30. URBAN IMPACTS FROM GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE URBAN POLLUTANT EMISSIONS URBAN POLLUTANT EMISSIONS –SOURCES FOR GLOBAL CONTAMINATION –CLIMATE CHANGE INDUCED TRENDS INCREASED URBAN THERMAL-STRESS MORTALITY INCREASED URBAN THERMAL-STRESS MORTALITY (COLUMBIA/GISS, U of H, & PSU PROJECTS) CHANGES IN CHANGES IN –WINTER AND SUMMER STORM TRACKS –URBAN PRECIP –URBAN FLOODING LITTLE COMMUNICATION B/T RESEARCH GROUPS LITTLE COMMUNICATION B/T RESEARCH GROUPS –GLOBAL CHANGE –URBAN CLIMATE

31. NYC OBS REFERENCES Bornstein 1968: J. Appl. Met.., 7., 575-82. Bornstein 1968: J. Appl. Met.., 7., 575-82. Born. & Johnson 1977: At. Env., 11, 597- 04 Born. & Johnson 1977: At. Env., 11, 597- 04 Loose & Born. 1977: MWR, 105, 567-71. Loose & Born. 1977: MWR, 105, 567-71. Born. & Thompson, 1981: JAM, 20, 843- 58 Born. & Thompson, 1981: JAM, 20, 843- 58 Gaffen & Born. 1988: Met. and Atmos. Phys, 38, 185 ‑ 94 Gaffen & Born. 1988: Met. and Atmos. Phys, 38, 185 ‑ 94 Born.1987: Modeling the Urban BL, AMS, 53 ‑ 93. Born.1987: Modeling the Urban BL, AMS, 53 ‑ 93.