1. WORKSHOP AGIR THE HAGUE FEBRUARY 14-15 2003 RESULTS FOR BELGIUM – WP1 J. MESTDAGH – M. LAMBRECHT Federal Planning Bureau Economic Analysis & Forecasts

2. WP1 – Results Belgium TABLE OF CONTENTS Population Mortality Longevity Life courses Morbidity – health HLE - DFLE

3. Evolution of the population Belgian population, by gender, 1950-2050 (31/12) 1948: 4.2 million men and 4.3 million women (8.5) 2000: 5.0 million men and 5.2 million women (10.2) 2050: 5.4 million men and 5.5 million women (10.9)

4. Population structure by age 194820002050 0-1930%25%20% 20-4436% 29% 45-6423%22%24% 65+11%17%26%

5. Average age of population 1948: 34.5 for men and 36 for women 2000: 38 for men and 40 for women 2050: 43.5 for men and 46 for women 2050: 0-19 = 92.5; 20-44 = 101.8; 45-59 = 120; 60+ = 266

6. Number of deaths by age  Shift to the right from 1948 – 2050 : deaths take place at older age (increase life expectancy)

7. Survivors Survival curves for fictive cohorts (M+W), 1950-2000 Shift upwards and to the right in time: more people survive at younger ages and people die later

8. Survivors (2) Survival curve 2000 and 2050 by gender  Further upward shift to the right  Higher for women than for men

9. Life expectancy at birth 69,9 65.0 81.4 75.1 88.9 83.9

10. Life expectancy at age 65 14.4 12.7 20.0 15.9 25.2 21.5

11. Life expectancy at 80 6.1 5.4 8.8 6.9 12.1 9.8

12. Modal life duration Age at which most deaths take place MenWomen 19507677 19757480 20008086 20508699+

13. Median Life duration 75.6 70.9 84.6 78.3 90.9 86.2

14. Life endurance 88.3 94.6 99.3 85.5 90.6 96.7

15. Record age 112 108 105 106

16. Age at which school ends 19.9 20.9 21.6

17. Age at household formation 29.7 27.3 23.5 21.6 25.6 23.3

18. Age parents at childbirth 29.0 23.0 27.5 31.4 28.9 27.5 25.4

19. Age of transition into inactivity among older workers (OECD Definition) 58.3 63.3 56.9 62.9 54.1 57.6

20. Age at first widowhood 68.2 65.0 71.2 68.7

21. Perceived Health % of population in good or very good health 1997 : Men 82%, women 75% 2001 : Men 79.5%, women 75%

22. Perceived Health (2) % of population in (very) good health  Decrease in % with age  Men mostly better perceived health than women

23. Vision impairment % of population without limitations, 2001, by age group  Decreases with age; men better vision than women

24. Vision impairment Vision impairment by age group and gender and degree, 2001  Limitations + degree increase with age; men have better vision

25. Deafness % of population without hearing problems, 2001, by age group  Decreases with age; women better than men

26. Deafness (2) % of population with hearing problems, 2001, by gender and degree  Increase of limitations and degree with age; men worse than women

27. Mental Health % of population in good mental health, 2001  Difficult to draw conclusions about age  Men seem to have better health except in oldest age group

28. Mobility handicap % of population without any limitations, 1997-2001  % decreases with age, more limitations for elderly  % lower for women than for men  Older age groups : lower % in 2001 than 1997 (worse!)

29. Mobility handicap - 2001 (2) MenWomen HouseChairBedHouseChairBed 15-240.7-0.1 0.6 25-340.6--0.40.50.1 35-440.40.1 1.80.50.3 45-541.70.40.21.90.5 55-642.51.20.54.91.40.7 65-744.92.60.18.93.30.8 75-846.210.62.420.86.30.4 85+12.630.18.625.719.710.5

30. Healthy Life Expectancy LE and HLE, Men, 2001  Gap LE – HLE decreases with age (13 years at age 15, 3 years at age 85) 61.1 47.6 5.1 1.8

31. Healthy Life Expectancy (2) LE and HLE, Women, 2001  Gap LE – HLE decreases with age (18 years at age 15, 3.6 years at age 85) 67.3 48.8 6.4 2.8

32. Healthy Life Expectancy (3) Percentage of years in good health in total LE (or : HLE / LE *100)  Decrease with age: elderly people can expect to spend bigger part of remaining years in bad health  Higher for men than for women (except oldest age group) 43 36 78 73 age

33. HLE compression / expansion MenWomen 150.221.98 25-0.141.97 400.131.51 50-0.240.60 60-0.220.26 65-0.44-0.06 70-0.50-0.49 75-0.35-0.47 80-0.91-0.83 85-0.94-0.04

34. Disability Free LE LE and DFLE, MEN, 2001  DFLE decreases with age, gaps narrows with age 75.3 56.1 3.6 0.3

35. Disability Free LE (2) LE and DFLE, women, 2001  Decrease with age, gap narrows with age 81.7 60.8 4.4 1.1

36. Disability Free LE (3) Percentage of years without disability in LE (or DFLE / LE *100) Decrease with age  Similar for men and women, except higher age groups (despite higher LE for women) 74 35-37

37. DFLE: compression / expansion AgeMenWomen 00.321.51 150.241.21 250.061.57 400.611.21 500.650.15 600.90-0.50 700.04-1.25 75-0.08-1.31 80-0.69-0.95 85-0.53-2.03