1. DELPHI RESEARCH AND INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION Dušan Drbohlav Zdeněk Čermák Dagmar Dzúrová Eva Janská Dita Čermáková Lenka Lachmanová RESEARCH PROJECT: International Migration and Migrants´ Illegal/Irregular Economic Activities: The Czech Republic in a Broader European Context International workshop, October 10, 2005, Budapest/Hungary

2. THE DELPHI METHOD Developed in the late 1940´s for military purposes Method for structuring group communication Based on questionnaires with controlled opinion feedback submitted to experts in several rounds Anonymity Often used for future forecasts in industry, environment, transportation, business, health care or education

3. THE DELPHI METHOD Conditions that support applying the Delphi: a)Complexity of the research problem b)Lacking adequate data c)Creation of common future scenario

4. FORMS OF THE DELPHI METHOD Conventional Delphi -Basic principles of the Delphi + statistical presentation of answers -Used for predicting future development based on consensus among experts Policy Delphi -Instrument to analyse policy problems -Often used systematic rating of feasibility, desirability and importance of policy or strategical measures

5. OWN EXPERIENCE: 1) THE 1993 DELPHI SURVEY ON EAST-WEST EUROPEAN MIGRATION Research project for the Belgian Ministry of Science Main aims – the probable future development of European East-West migration + testing applicability of Delphi on international migration issues 70 experts from Eastern and Western Europe Predictions largely for the period 1993 – 1998

6. MAIN RESULTS vis-à-vis REALITY Results -Above all „push“ determinants of movements -Increasing role of short- term, circulatory migration -57 % of experts predicted increase in volumes -Not massive inflows -Creation of a buffer zone Reality -Very important but also growing importance of „pull“ factors -As predicted -Slow decrease in volumes - As predicted

7. MAIN RESULTS vis-à-vis REALITY Results -Main target countries: Germany, Austria, France, Italy, Sweden, Finland -Main source countries: Yugoslavia, Albania, Romania -Low emigration from the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary or Baltic states Reality -Almost as predicted, except Great Britain -As predicted, except Poland -As predicted

8. MAIN RESULTS vis-à-vis REALITY Results -Anxiety about potential increase in antagonism and hostility towards immigrants in Western Europe -Growing restrictions and harmonisation in migration policy in Western Europe -Application of restrictive measures in more developed countries of CEE Reality -Increase in preferences of anti-immigrant political parties (in Austria, the Netherlands or France) -As predicted -As predicted but with a short time delay

9. OWN EXPERIENCE: 2) THE 2003 DELPHI SURVEY ON EAST-WEST EUROPEAN MIGRATION Small-scale research (15 experts from Czechia) Conventional + Policy Delphi methods Two rounds of questionnaires Three time periods Future scenarios with some detailed information Migration policy objectives

10. CONCLUSION Only time will verify accuracy of the predictions Delphi survey is just a piece of mosaic of methods as to how to predict the future migration development – anyways, found useful Must to stick to „Delphi methodical rules“