1. Changing Transitions to Adulthood in Developing Countries Highlights from NRC/IOM Panel Report Cynthia Lloyd, Chair and Editor Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars June 9, 2005

2. Outline Framework and context Preparation for adult roles: schooling and health Transitions to adult roles: work, citizenship, marriage, parenthood Policy and program implications

3. Rapid Global Change Changing National Context Changing Local Community Context Changes in Individual Resources/ Attributes during Transition Changes in the Transition to Adulthood Conceptual framework Source: NRC/IOM (2005) Rapid Global Change

4. Africa Asia Latin America/Caribbean 1.1 billion 1.5 billion 1.7 billion Source: NRC/IOM 2005 Demographic profile of young people (10-24) in developing countries

5. Source: UN estimates and projections [http://esa.un.org/unpp/index.asp]

6. What do young people need to achieve successful transitions? Good health, including knowledge and means to sustain health An appropriate stock of human and social capital to become a productive adult Prosocial values and the ability to contribute to the collective well-being Adequate preparation for the assumption of adult social roles and obligations The capability to make choices Source: NRC/IOM (2005)

7. Outline Framework and context Preparation for adult roles: schooling and health Transitions to adult roles: work, citizenship, marriage, parenthood Policy and program implications

8. Schooling Growth in school attendance and grade attainment has been unprecedented Gender gap, where it still exists, is closing rapidly Young people spend more of their adolescence in school Large differentials in school attendance by wealth and residence persist

9. Age Cameroon (1998) Age Ethiopia (1999) Age Bangladesh (1999-00) India (1998-00) Ghana (1998-99) Age Pakistan (2001-02) Age Percent ever attended school, 6 countries Boys Girls Source: DHS and AYP data

10. School attendance,15-19 year olds, by socio-economic status (weighted averages) Data source: Demographic and Health Surveys 1990-2001, 48 countries

11. Comparative data from standardized test scores raise serious concerns Poor school quality compromises attendance and retention

12. Student test scores by country 2000-2001 (aged 15) Source: OECD and UNESCO Institute of Statistics (2003)

13. Health and reproductive health Health improving overall, except in areas hard hit by HIV In most regions, higher prevalence of HIV among girls than boys For young women, maternal mortality/morbidity still among most significant risks Young men disproportionately affected by accidents, violence, war, and suicide Mental health problems — a substantial, and possibly increasing, share of illness

14. Health behaviors Students are less likely to have had sex than non-students Students are more likely, if sexually active, to use contraception than non-students Condom use is very low but increasing; contraceptive use is rising among sexually active young women Smoking rates are high; use of illicit drugs and alcohol is likely to be rising

15. Percent ever having had sex, ages 15-17, by enrollment status Source: NRC/IOM 2005

16. Outline Framework and context Preparation for adult roles: schooling and health Transitions to adult roles: work, citizenship, marriage, parenthood Policy and program implications

17. Transitions to work Delays in school exit have led to later labor force entry, declines in child labor Rise in schooling has led to a greater equalization of work burdens by sex Poverty is the main cause of child labor Increased numbers of young people have entered the labor market without any large relative increases in unemployment rates

18. Young women are increasingly likely to engage in paid employment More educated workers have higher earnings, greater job stability and mobility

19. Female employment rate, Brazil 1977 and 2001 (ages 10-25) Age Source: NRC/IOM 2005

20. Transitions to citizenship Successful transitions to citizenship are important to development Young men are more likely than young women to be active politically Young people are more likely than older people to participate in community organizations Young people have greater trust in religious institutions and the press than public institutions

21. Livelihoods Program in Ghana A variety of institutions and programs can be important to citizenship formation

22. Transitions to marriage A smaller proportion of young people are married than previously Declines in early marriage (before 18) are widespread. Nonetheless, prevalence of child marriage remains significant in some regions Large differentials in age of marriage by education, wealth, and residence persist Typically, there is a distinct gap between the age of school leaving and marriage

23. Trends in percent of women married by age 18 Data source: Demographic and Health Surveys, 1990-2001.

24. School and marriage status, females, by single years of age Source: NRC/IOM (2005) Left school Married

25. Transitions to parenthood Young men become parents later than young women, allowing more time to prepare Age of first parenthood is rising; the pace of change is highly variable 90% of births occur within marriage; no change in 20 years Mean length of first birth interval is declining everywhere Patterns of premarital childbearing vary substantially by region

26. Outline Framework and context Preparation for adult roles: schooling and health Transitions to adult roles: work, citizenship, marriage, parenthood Policy and program implications

27. Target policies and programs to the poor, especially poor girls Invest in significant improvements in primary school quality, building a base for secondary school expansion Promote gender equity in the arenas of citizenship, work, marriage, and parenthood for all social classes Encourage active collaboration between health and education sectors in designing multi-pronged reproductive health programs

29. Trends in Grade Attainment (Percent Completed 6 or More Years) Girls Boys 40-44 yrs old 20-24 yrs old Africa Latin America Asia 100 80 60 40 20 20 40 60 80 100 Source: DHS and AYP data

30. Percent Currently Enrolled (15 year olds) Africa Asia Latin America 20 40 60 80 100 Source: DHS

31. Age Cameroon (1998) Age Ethiopia (1999) Age Bangladesh (1999-00) India (1998-00) Ghana (1998-99) Age Pakistan (2001-02) Age Percent completed 6+ years, 6 countries Boys Girls Source: DHS and AYP data

32. Age Cameroon (1998) Age Ethiopia (1999) Age Bangladesh (1999-00) India (1998-00) Ghana (1998-99) Age Pakistan (2001-02) Age Combined data - 6 countries Boys Girls Source: DHS and AYP data

33. Trends in percent completing primary school, 24 African countries late 1960searly 1970s late 1970s early 1980s late 1980s early 1990s late 1990s Author estimates) ( Source: Hewett and Lloyd (2005)

34. Media access, 15–19 year olds Watch television at least once/week: Source: DHS, all women surveys Percent

35. Percent Distribution of Countries by Type of Change: A Comparison of 20-24 Year Olds to 40-44 Year Olds Increase No Change Decrease Marrying by 182.422.075.6 Having Premarital Sex by 18 58.539.02.4 Having Sex by 1822.046.331.7 Note: Based on 41 DHS countries

36. Ratio of Proportion of Unmarried Women Aged 15-17 Who Ever Had Sex Among Those Not Currently Enrolled vs. Enrolled, by Overall Proportion in School Guatemala Zimbabwe Bolivia Note: Age standardized Source: DHS Surveys, 1995-2001 Proportion who ever had sex Aged 15-17 (Not in school/In school) Proportion in school Latin AmericaAfrica

37. Trends in Percent of Women Who Marry and Have a First Birth Before Age 18 Source: NRC/IOM 2005 Percent South America Carib/Cent America Former Soviet East/South Africa West/Middle Africa SC/SE Asia Middle East 40-44 year olds 20-24 year olds MarryBirth