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Why Iowa farmers need export markets Original 9/12/08 Joel Severinghaus Microsoft photo Modified 1/13/14 Chad Hart
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Why do Iowa farmers need export markets? That’s where the customers are That’s where the economic growth is That’s where the consumption growth is We produce surpluses We only eat high on the hog Exports are crucial to Iowa farm income
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That’s where the customers are Wal-Mart photo In China since 1996, 390 stores Walmarts, Sam’s Clubs, and Neighborhood Markets
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True or false? 1. Two-thirds of the people on this planet are Asian. False.
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95% of the world’s population lives outside the US Source: CIA World Factbook
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True or false? 2. China, India, and Indonesia have the three largest populations. False. The US is # 3.
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Top 10 populations Source: CIA World Factbook
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True or false? 3. Over the next 40 years, the highest population growth rate will be in India. False. In Africa.
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Population growth 2014 to 2050 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base
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That’s where the economic growth is Hong Kong
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True or false? 4. Nigeria’s economy is growing faster than the US economy. True.
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Economic growth rates Source: CIA World Factbook
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Sources of US petroleum imports, 2012 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
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Size of economy Source: CIA World Factbook
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Beijing Chinese economic growth: 1990
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Dongguan, Dec. 10, 2005: McDonald’s opens first drive-thru in China; half of the 100 restaurants plan to open each year will have drive-thrus Chinese economic growth: 2005 AP photomcchronicles.blogspot.com photo
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1000 more cars added to the streets of Beijing every day Chinese economic growth: 2008
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Open 24 hours Delivery 24 hours More than 1,800 McDonald’s in China, with 200 more on the way Chinese economic growth: 2011
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10 largest economies (GDP rank) 2020203020402050 US China US JapanIndia GermanyJapan Brazil IndiaGermanyBrazilJapan FranceBrazilGermanyRussia UKFranceRussiaMexico BrazilRussiaFranceGermany ItalyUK Indonesia CanadaItalyMexicoFrance Source: PwC, The World in 2050, January 2011
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True or false? 5. There are more middle-class consumers in India than in the US. True.
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“Middle class” population growth in developing countries 2009 to 2030 Source: OECD,, The Emerging Middle Class in Developing Countries, Homi Kharas, January 2010 India’s middle class already out-numbers total US population
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12 countries over 100 million population Sources: CIA “World Factbook”, U.S. Census Bureau Bubble size: population in 2014 India US
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That’s where the consumption growth is Hong Kong
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Trends in US protein consumption Source: USDA Economic Research Service “Food Availability” data sets
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True or false? 6. The highest pork consumption growth is in Mexico. False.
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Pork consumption growth Source: USDA Foreign Agriculture Service PSD Online 1/14/14
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Chicken consumption growth Source: USDA Foreign Agriculture Service PSD Online 1/14/14
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True or false? 7. Beef consumption in India has doubled in the past decade or so. False, but it is close.
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Beef consumption growth Source: USDA Foreign Agriculture Service PSD Online 1/14/14
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Religion in India Source: CIA World Factbook About 150 million people -- third largest Muslim population after Indonesia and Pakistan They eat beef in India? The Hindus don’t, but some of the Muslims do.
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True or false? 8. Milk consumption in India is growing faster than in China. False. But it depends on the time frame.
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Fluid cow milk consumption growth Source: USDA Foreign Agriculture Service PSD Online 1/14/14
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Over 1,000 Pizza Hut restaurants, By 2014, 200 Pizza Hut “Home Service” units (doubled in 3 years)
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Baskin Robbins has 90 locations in China, Plans for 249 more locations over the next 10 years
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437 Subways in China
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More than 1,000 Starbucks
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True or false? 9. China consumes more soybean meal than the US. True.
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Soybean meal consumption Source: USDA Foreign Agriculture Service PSD Online 1/14/14
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Corn consumption Source: USDA Foreign Agriculture Service PSD Online 1/14/14
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We produce surpluses Heart of Iowa Co-op, Nevada
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True or false? 10. We export about a fifth of the US corn crop. False. But we previously did.
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US corn use Source: USDA WASDE reports
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True or false? 11. We export about a tenth of US dairy production. False. Now about 20%.
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Export share of US production, 2012 Source: USDA ERS “Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook” 1/14
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True or false? 12. Japan is our # 1 ag export market. False. Used to be, before NAFTA.
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Top ten US ag export markets, 2012 Canada & Mexico buy 28% of US ag exports Source: US Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics, FATUS export aggregations
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US agricultural trade with Canada NAFTA Two-way trade up 376% since NAFTA Source: US Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics, FATUS export aggregations
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US agricultural trade with Mexico NAFTA Two-way trade up 472% since NAFTA Source: US Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics, FATUS export aggregations
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Exports are crucial to Iowa farm income Microsoft photo
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True or false? 13. Iowa ranks # 3 in state ag exports. False. # 2.
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Top 10 ag exporting states, 2012 8% of $141 billion total US ag exports Source: USDA Economic Research Service, “State Export Data”
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True or false? 14. Exports equal about 15% of Iowa farm cash receipts. False. More like 35%.
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Iowa agricultural exports Source: USDA Economic Research Service, “State Export Data”
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True or false? 15. Iowa exports billions of dollars worth of corn and soybeans. True.
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Iowa’s state export rankings, 2012 # 1 Soybeans$3.578 billion # 1 Pork$1.887 billion # 1 Corn $1.710 billion # 1 Feeds$1.038 billion # 1 Soybean meal $713 million # 1 Vegetable oils $543 million # 4 Beef $312 million # 4 Hides $157 million # 12 Dairy $118 million Source: USDA Economic Research Service, “State Export Data”
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Iowa’s top 10 manufactured exports, 2012 1. Tractors $1.306 billion 2. Aircraft engines/parts307 million 3. Herbicides 300 million 4. Front-end loaders 266 million 5. Aluminum alloy plates238 million 6. Excavators176 million 7. Bulldozers150 million 8. Sprayers139 million 9. Harvesting machinery127 million 10. Refrigerator-freezers 122 million Source: http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/state/data/ia.html
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1 in 3 John Deere Waterloo Works tractors is exported 131 tractors on 49 railcars, crossing Nebraska, bound for China, 5/08
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Significance of Iowa’s manufactured exports Exports support 7.1% of total private- sector employment, and 21.2% of total manufacturing employment 2,447 Iowa companies export 82% of Iowa exporters are small & medium-sized enterprises (less than 500 employees) Source: USDOC ITA “Iowa: Exports, Jobs, and Foreign Investment” 12/11
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Top 3 US soybean export markets Source: US Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics
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So why do Iowa farmers need export markets? That’s where the customers are That’s where the economic growth is That’s where the consumption growth is We produce surpluses We only eat high on the hog Exports are crucial to Iowa farm income
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Population vs. arable land share of global population arable land China19% 5% India17%10% US 5%13%
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Arable land
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