1. Economic Downturn in Relation to HE Information and Library Services Richard Parsons r.parsons@dundee.ac.uk Director, Library & Learning Centre

2. Notes Influential articles http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/jun/24/uk-recession-oecd http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8078915.stm http://www.webofdebt.com/articles/quantitative_easing.php Independent newspaper budget presentation Therefore: Significant public sector contraction – 10% - 15%?

3. Macroeconomics DeflationHyperinflation

4. Private sector spending Public sector spending Recession shapes Shape of recession – V, U, W, bathtub?

5. Resource costs and staff costs

7. Staff Costs On costs increasing from 18% to 33% Grade 9 salary maximum from £34k in 1998 to £52k in 2008 Pension liabilities and benefits are significant (e.g. USS up from 14% to 16%)

8. Outline Likely realities International, national environment University learning and teaching University research University administration Appropriate responses Increase income Decrease expenditure Summary

9. Economic implications International, national environment All recognising role of universities International student numbers to hold up (PGs) A major income earner for UK Visa, access challenges not welcomed IT and Libraries become more important as international student centres

10. Economic implications University Learning and Teaching Demographic downturn but: Less employment Higher skill expectation More years at University Increased student fees Increased graduate debt Potential PG (export) activity

11. Economic implications University Research Universities are net producers of research Author pays model costs us more Particularly for Western universities Public sector downturn, extra severe in the research sector?

12. Economic implications University Third Stream Yes of course But challenging to sustain

13. Likely Sector Responses Enhance Income Protect (appoint) academic staff Support academic staff (be recognised) Third stream income sources (charges?) Reduce Expenditure Software and serials provision Traditional and e-books Automation, staff light approaches Collaborations summary

14. Reducing Expenditure Software and serials provision Reduce duplication Rigorously pursue licencing (expect 0% increases) Coordinate UK actions Ignore exchange rate fluctuations Efficiently use ILL or alternatives Research pooling opportunties Prepare for author pays models

15. Reducing Expenditure Traditional and e-Books Fewer copies? Schwarzenegger solution Reduce storage Trend is well underway http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1191831/Rise-machines-Arnold- Schwarzenegger-terminates-school-books-tells-pupils-digital.html

16. Reducing Expenditure Automation, staff light approaches RFID /self issue investment Reduced staffing levels – 1 person? No staff, secure solutions eResources are 24/7 http://www.intellident.co.uk/4.00/en/sm_smartServeLite.php

17. Reducing Expenditure Collaborations Purchasing collaborations (Book consortia, SHEDL, Wales, Greater London). Sharing collaborations – book borrowing, digitisation costs. Storage– UKRR, local stores, last copy in Scotland. Procedural collaborations – tenders, policies, learning objects Academic collaborations – learning objects, research methods, teaching protocols. Shared services – repositories, LMS, VLEs, etc.

18. Worst Case Summary Information Books  eBooks, stores reduction Journal cuts, including bundles Cost effective open access Infrastructure Further diversification of services Utilise the assets Software consolidation (reduction) Delays/cancellation for capital projects Staff Limited new appointments Converged services, trimming management and administration Staff time pressures very real

19. Conclusion Information Services, Library A return to core values: Learning and teaching Research Our core values are the raw materials of the recovery