1. Mount Rainier Evacuation Plan CPT Cardy Moten III, USA LT Volkan Sozen, Turkish Army

2. Outline Background Problem Assumptions Model Overview Results Further Research Questions

3. Background Pierce County Mount Rainier Lahars Volcanic Mudflows Can occur with or without an eruption Examples Mount Saint Helens (1980) Columbia (1985) Africa (2012)

4. Background Impact Major residential areas inhabitable Portions of I-5 and other state roads inaccessible Port of Tacoma 75% of goods for Eastern and Central US 70% of consumer goods for Alaska

5. Problem Short term (No Eruption) Early warning from lahar detection system only Analyze total number not evacuated Given: 2 hours 43,395 vehicles Varying lahar travel times

7. Problem Long term (Eruption) Analyze total required evacuation time Given: 727,635 evacuees Various warning horizons Same evacuees

9. Simplifying Assumptions All households have one vehicle for evacuation Total passengers per vehicle was an average of four Transportation routes will be utilized to max capacity with serious gridlock. Some personnel will evacuate even if they aren’t in danger, causing an uptick in network utilization.

10. Short-Term Scenario

11. Network Overview 40 80 110 Lahar travel time in minutes from time of detection

12. Mount Rainier Greenwater Enumclaw Buckley Wilkeson Carbonado Ashford Elbe Eatonville Orting Sumner Graham Mckenna Yelm Morton Randle Packwodd Gig Harbor Puyallup Tacoma Federal Way Auburn Kent Renton Seattle Alder Short Term Evacuation Scenario Castle Rock Safe Node Transit Node Evacuation Node Lacey Simplified Graph Roadway N

13. Long-Term Scenario

14. Mount Rainier Greenwater Enumclaw Buckley Wilkeson Carbonado Ashford Elbe Eatonville Orting Sumner Graham Mckenna Yelm Morton Randle Packwodd Gig Harbor Puyallup Tacoma Federal Way Auburn Kent Renton Seattle Alder Castle Rock Lacey Roadway N

15. Mount Rainier Greenwater Enumclaw Buckley Wilkeson Carbonado Ashford Elbe Eatonville Orting Sumner Graham Mckenna Yelm Morton Randle Packwodd Gig Harbor Puyallup Tacoma Federal Way Auburn Kent Renton Seattle Alder Long Term Evacuation Scenario Castle Rock Safe Node Transit Node Evacuation Node Lacey Simplified Graph Roadway N

16. Model Overview Modeled for min cost flow Used time layered format Only major state and interstate roads for edges Considered lahar reach time for each city End Time = n Time = n+1 Time = n+2 C,0,UB 0,0, ∞ 1,0, ∞

17. Model Overview Values on edges are (C,LB,UB): C = Travel times Lower Bound(LB) = 0 Upper Bound(UB)=Edge capacity 30 vehicles for state roads 80 vehicles for interstate Total population for end node End Time = n Time = n+1 Time = n+2 C,0,UB 0,0, ∞ 1,0, ∞

18. Congestion

19. Model Overview Short-term evacuation graph (small model) 80 time layers 6,247 nodes 14,118 edges Long-term evacuation graph(large model) 1000 time layers 80,081 nodes 295,486 edges

20. Short-Term Evacuation Results w/o Interdicion Undirected Travel Lanes Could not evacuate a total of 13 cities. Percentage of households stranded was 45% Network Design Directed Travel Lanes Met demand for all danger areas except 15% of Puyallup’s population Not all of Puyallup’s citizens live near the Puyallup river Recommend opposite traffic flow on 33 roads Puyallup River

21. Mount Rainier Greenwater Enumclaw Buckley Wilkeson Carbonado Ashford Elbe Eatonville Orting Sumner Graham Mckenna Yelm Morton Randle Packwodd Gig Harbor Puyallup Tacoma Federal Way Auburn Kent Renton Seattle Alder Short Term Evacuation Scenario Castle Rock Safe Node Transit Node Evacuation Node Lacey Simplified Graph Undirected Travel Roadway N

22. Mount Rainier Greenwater Enumclaw Buckley Wilkeson Carbonado Ashford Elbe Eatonville Orting Sumner Graham Mckenna Yelm Morton Randle Packwodd Gig Harbor Puyallup Tacoma Federal Way Auburn Kent Renton Seattle Alder Short Term Evacuation Scenario Castle Rock Safe Node Transit Node Evacuation Node Lacey Simplified Graph Directed Travel Roadway N

23. Interdicted short-term plan Two-way travel only Attacks isolated personnel in: Puyallup Sumner Interdiction Model Results

31. Long-Term Evacuation Results No Interdiction Total evacuation time is 15 hours Total-run time for the model took 24 minutes Interdiction Best attack was to shut off route to Castle rock in the south Total evacuation time is 16.1 hours Total run-time for the model took 86 minutes

32. Mount Rainier Greenwater Enumclaw Buckley Wilkeson Carbonado Ashford Elbe Eatonville Orting Sumner Graham Mckenna Yelm Morton Randle Packwodd Gig Harbor Puyallup Tacoma Federal Way Auburn Kent Renton Seattle Alder Long Term Evacuation Scenario Castle Rock Safe Node Transit Node Evacuation Node Lacey Simplified Graph Roadway N Block here

33. Further Research Emplace more roadblocks on the long-term scenario Conduct a fine-grain analysis on the short-term evacuation of Puyallup Minimize the evacuation of the last household to leave the region

34. Data Evacuation planning data extracted from the Pierce County Evacuation Plan (2008) Population data is from the US Census American Fact Finder website http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml Highway capacities estimated from thesis submitted by LCDR April Malveo (2013)

35. QUESTIONS?