1. Sustainability & Biofuels Biodiesel Workshop Brookhaven National Laboratory May 8, 2008 John Nettleton, Cornell University jsn10@cornell.edu

2. Sustainability & Biofuels “If you can get them asking the wrong question, you won’t have to worry about the answers..” Thomas Pynchon in Gravity’s Rainbow “Our national faith so far has been: “There’s always more” …People of intelligence and ability seem now to be genuinely embarrassed by any solution to any problem that does not involve high technology, a great expenditure of energy, or a big machine.” Wendell Berry in ‘Faustian Economics: Hell hath no limits’, Harper’s Magazine, May 2008

3. Sunshine Limits to Growth 2 nd Law- All production is consumption Sustainable Development (SD): minimizes resource use, attends to ‘life cycle costs, end use efficiencies, distribution, etc. 900 m² (~.1ha) cropland/per capita food energy Each hectare supports 5.5 people ( 180 day) (study) pop density at 3 persons/ha Reach ‘sunshine limit’ in 35 years

4. Sunshine Limits to Growth 2 nd Law- All production is consumption SD: minimizes resource use, attends to ‘life cycle costs, end use efficiency, distribution, etc. 900 m² (~.1ha) cropland/per cap food energy Each hectare supports 5.5 people ( 180 day) (now) pop density at 3 persons/ha Reach ‘sunshine limit’ in 35 years William Rees (Rees’s piece in Ecologist, 1996), draws on base data from 1986 1986+ 35 = 2021

5. Sustainable Development What’s in a Name? #1: “..to meet the needs of the present generation w/o compromising the ability of future generations to meet theirs.” (Bruntland Commission, 1987) #2: “..development without growth- w/o growth in throughput beyond environmental regenerative and absorptive capacity.” (Herman Daly, 1996)

6. Supply & Demand Need equal attention to increased supply balanced with reduced demand: “just the right amount” (Goldilocks) Fuel selection questions addressed via attention to sustainable public policy and education, planning and leadership Massive economy+widespread practice= measurable impact (The North Slope)

7. Projected biofuel consumption (without and with Gov’t Measures on Climate Change (MTOE) 201020152030 Europe14.8- 16.418- 21.526.6- 35.6 U.S.14.9- 16.419.8- 27.522.8- 42.9 Brazil8.3- 8.610.4- 11.023. – 23. China0.7- 1.21.5- 2.7 7.9- 13. India0.1 – 0.10.2 –0.32.4- 4.5 Total41.5- 48.854.4- 73.092.4- 146.7

8. From “The Big Question: Can Biofuels help prevent global warming…”Steve Connor, Independent 15 January 2008

9. Not the Silver Bullet Physics: to cut U.S. fleet fuel demand ~10% = planting 1/6 of all arable land (OECD, 2005, solar gain at 4w/m²) Challenge: making it to ‘2 nd gen’ crop supply + Δ demand

10. New York Dairy Farm Prototype Farm of 500 acres + 100 head dairy cattle: Soybean prod. = 70% of needed feed (meal) Purchase price for feed < sale price of BD. Operation cash positive before sale of dairy products. Producing meal, BD sale saves farmers feed costs adding 34K gals/ BD to supply

11. ‘Carbon Negative Biofuels from LIHD Biomass’, Tilman et al, Science Vol. 314

12. Energy in Agriculture Most (> 90%) energy in used crop prod is oil and/or NG: energy inputs have cut labor inputs from 500 hrs./acre to ~4 hrs./acre “If fertilizer, pesticides and partial irrigation w/drawn, corn yields drop from 13 to 3 bushels/acre” (Pimental) LIHD perennials yield 238% more over decade (NY has 1.5 million arable acres lying fallow)

13. Green ‘Niche Fuels’ in NY (2008-15) Significant and measurable public health benefits with BD blends for heating fuel & school bus fleets Benefits for bldg management groups (RGGI) New markets for ‘cool weather’ crops/refined WVO; LIHD crops sustainable over the long-term Water-borne transport for regional producers in response to rising freight costs Institutional savings with onsite WVO

14. Sustainable Biofuel Policy Tasks NY Region - Study reg’l capacity ‘cool weather crops -Frame municipal/regional policies leading to ‘best practices (see Carter principles for biofuels) -Develop transport/refining infrastructure National - Revisit protectionist trade barriers (Brazil) - Design/develop balanced transport policies - Integrate RGGI and carbon tax policies for biofuels - Expand research re LIHD and other feedstock methods Global - Work with EU and learn RTFO lessons -Collaborate on international standards re sustainabilty