2. Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 )

3. Recent CO 2 Changes IPCC Reports

4. Carbon Dioxide

5. Changes in Temperature 2 to 5° F by 2050

6. Changes in Seasonality Warmer winters earlier springs

7. Water Resources

8. Drought Increasing Dry Episodes Return of Mega-droughts

9. Snowpack Reduced levels at low elevations

10. Extra-local Influences

11. Dust Bowl and 50’s drought 11

12. 12

13. 13

14. Regional Water Influences

15. Lake Mead Water Level

16. Additional Heat-wave Days

17. Agriculture in Southern California Each year, even with heat abatement efforts, extreme heat costs America’s livestock industries (dairy, beef, swine, and poultry) a collective 1.7 billion dollars. These losses come in the form of increased mortality, decreased appetite, decreased milk and egg production, and decreased reproductive fitness. Yields of cherries, berries, table grapes, wine grapes, walnuts, and freestone peaches are projected to decline by 2050, while almond yields slightly increase during this period. Increases in average May daily low temperatures help avocado production to some degree, once this value exceeds 53.6 degrees Fahrenheit, the yields go down at a rate of about ten tons per acre for every 1.8 degree Fahrenheit increase in daily low temperature.

18. Warmer winter low temps In Citrus,lyears when the December temperature was 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than average produced crop yields that were five tons per acre larger than average.

19. Changes in Seasonality Warmer winters earlier springs

20. Warmer Temperatures (Pathogens and Disease) In General Fungi that infects crop plants grow best in moderate temperatures (earlier and longer warm periods) Wheat and Oats Host plants may become more susceptible to rust disease. Forage species become more resistant to fungi

21. Moisture Changes (Pathogens and Disease) More frequent and extreme precipitation events could result in more and longer periods with favorable pathogen environments Some pathogens will expand with increased moisture, whereas others will expand with reduced moisture. Predicted higher atmospheric water vapor concentrations with increased temperature will favor pathogen and disease development. 21

22. Relative surface area of crops in California for 2006

23. 23 Rising CO 2 Concentrations (Pathogens and Disease) Impacts will be on both host and pathogens. CO 2 fertilization will result in denser canopies, thus higher humidity favoring pathogens Lower plant decomposition from higher CO 2 may provide cover for overwintering, thus earlier and faster disease cycles. Physiological changes to plant as well as pathogen

24. Allergies and Disease Increasing pollen numbers and allergy strength Spread of new diseases Mosquito-Borne Rodent-Borne Water-Borne

25. Warmer Temperatures (Insects) In General Increased temperature could increase pest populations Warmer temperatures can affect insect survival, development, geographic range, and population size Temperatures can affect insect development directly or indirectly

26. The Historic Record Insect species diversity per area tends to decrease with higher latitude and altitude, meaning that rising temperatures could result in more insect species attacking more hosts in temperate climates The diversity of insect species and the intensity of their feeding have increased historically with increasing temperatures. (Bale et al. 2002) 26

27. Insects Those that take several years per life-cycle These insects will tend to moderate temperature variability over the course of their life history. Stop and go developers Develop more rapidly during warm periods. Increased temperatures will accelerate the development of these types of insects (more generations = more crop damage) 27

28. 28 Insects Migratory Insects Areas where they overwinter may expand with warming temperatures. Natural enemies and host insects may respond differently. Host insects may accelerate growth resulting in less parasitism. Changes in temperatures may shift gender ratios

29. Changes in Natural Vegetation

30. Pine Bark Beetles