1. THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER SUPPLIES Jim Doane PE Spring 2004

2. Order of Presentation What is Current –Unprecedented issues for water supply planning –There will be temperature changes as a result of human activity –How these changes impact the hydrology of the Pacific Northwest –How these changes impact the Bull Run Water System

3. Order of Presentation What is emerging –Worst case Pentagon Study on Climate Change (Leaked to British Press in Feb 2004) Collapse of the Atlantic Ocean’s thermohaline circulation –Caused by Global Warming –Change in years instead of decades as presently predicted –Vast climate changes---both globally and locally –Colder, windier and drier and shorter growing season in the Northeast US. Less productive agriculture.

4. Order of Presentation –A longer growing season in the Southwest US. More productive agriculture if water can be provided. –Increased competition for water leading to international conflict. –http://www.ems.org/climate/pentagon_climatechange.pdf

5. Planning for Water Supply Based on historical values –Demand….present demand plus growth (generally population based) –Supply Historical Record The longer the record, the higher the confidence But the Past is no longer a good precursor of the future

6. TEMPERATURE CHANGES From 2001 Work by the University of Washington Dr. Philip Mote of the JISAO Climates Impacts Group

7. Assessments of Climate Change Thousands of peer-reviewed papers Peer-reviewed assessment: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Major reports in 1990, 1996, 2001 National Academy of Sciences panel, 2001 underscored IPCC conclusions

8. carbon dioxide concentration has increased by ~32% the carbon budget: nature has absorbed roughly half our emissions there is no question that the increase is unnatural from a very long term perspective, these changes are enormous Humans will keep increasing CO 2

9. Evidence that Earth is Warming Thermometers show warming of 0.4-0.8°C (0.7-1.4°F) since 1900 Arctic permafrost is melting Worldwide, most glaciers melting Arctic ice thinning Spring coming earlier (snow cover; blooming, leafing- out dates) Borehole temperatures indicate warming But: not every station shows warming; upper-air temperatures not increasing (satellites, balloons)

10. Global average temperature 18601880190019201940196019802000 0.8 0.4 0 -0.4 -0.8 degrees Celsius

11. Some Evidence that Humans are Responsible Rate of warming unusual Hard to explain as natural (volcanoes, solar, ocean) Pattern of warming (and stratospheric cooling) consistent with human influence

12. The earth is warming -- abruptly

13. Natural Climate InfluenceHuman Climate Influence All Climate Influences

14. Projections into the Future Projections of future greenhouse gases (depends on socioeconomic projections) Climate models: different “sensitivity” Wide range of estimates: 1.4-5.8°C (2.5- 10.4°F) by 2100, faster than any time in at least 10,000 years. Estimates show Pacific Northwest will increase by 3-5°F by 2040.

16. Temperature trends in the PNW Almost every station shows warming (filled circles) Urbanization not a major source of warming

17. PNW average temperature

19. Temperature Change Conclusions The bulk of the evidence points to a human influence on climate, with a global warming of 2.5-10.4F likely in the next 100 years. Regional warming likely to be faster than average global warming (3-6°F by 2040s); main vulnerability: reduced snow leading to summer water shortages

20. Implications for Water Management 2001 Work by University of Washington Alan Hamlet, Andy Wood and Dennis Lettenmaier of the JISAO Climates Impacts Group

21. Winter Precipitation Summer Precipitation (mm)

22. Hydrologic Characteristics of PNW Rivers

23. Temperature warms, precipitation unaltered: Streamflow timing is altered Annual volume stays about the same Precipitation increases, temperature unaltered: Streamflow timing stays about the same Annual volume is altered Sensitivity of Snowmelt and Transient Rivers to Changes in Temperature and Precipitation

24. Cedar River Western Cascades (caused predominantly by warm temperatures) Columbia River at The Dalles (caused both by warm temperatures and decreased precipitation) Effect of 1992 Winter Climate on Two PNW Rivers

25. ColSim Reservoir Model VIC Hydrology Model Changes in Mean Temperature and Precipitation from GCMs

26. Climate Change Scenarios 2020s

27. Climate Change Scenarios 2040s

28. The main impact: less snow April 1 Columbia Basin Snow Extent

29. Columbia River at The Dalles 2020s “Middle-of-the-Road” Scenario

30. Columbia River at The Dalles 2040s “Middle-of-the-Road” Scenario

31. Water Resources in the Columbia River Basin System objectives affected by winter flows Winter hydropower production (PNW demand) System objectives affected by summer flows Flood control Summer hydropower production (California demand) Irrigation Instream flow for fish Recreation

32. Simulated Reliability of Water Resources Objectives for “Middle-of-the-Road” Scenarios

33. 1 2 3 4 1 Palisades 2 Milner 3 Oxbow 4 Ice Harbor 5 Kiona 5

34. Snake River at Milner

35. Snake River at Ice Harbor

36. Yakima River at Kiona

37. General Conclusions for the PNW PNW hydrology is predominantly controlled by winter conditions in the mountains. Warmer temperatures produce streamflow timing changes in most PNW basins. Changes in precipitation produce changes in streamflow volumes. Basins encompassing the mid- winter snow line are most sensitive to warming. Basins at high elevations with cold winter temperatures are less sensitive. The primary impact of warming in the PNW is loss of mountain snowpack. For the scenarios investigated, both warm/wet and warm/dry scenarios result in decreased snow water equivalent in the Columbia basin. Warmer temperatures generally results in higher winter flows, lower summer flows, and earlier peak flows Effects to the Columbia water resources system are largely associated with reduced reliability of system objectives affected by summer streamflows (water supply, irrigation, summer hydropower, instream flow).

38. There are significant uncertainties regarding changes in precipitation and the resulting intensity of reductions in summer streamflows and increases in the frequency of droughts. However, a consistent and robust result is that some reduction in summer streamflow and increase in drought frequency is present in all scenarios by the 2040s for the Columbia basin. The greatest impacts to the Columbia system are for the warm/dry scenarios, which produce the strongest reductions in summer streamflows and the greatest increases in drought frequency. The reductions in summer streamflows in these scenarios are likely to exacerbate existing conflicts over water, the impacts of regional growth, and weaknesses in infrastructure, water management practice, and management institutions. General Conclusions for the PNW (cont.)

39. The Impacts of Climate Change on Portland’s Water Supply Work by Joe Dvorak, Dennis Kessler, Azad Mohammadi Portland Bureau of Water Works Richard Palmer, Margaret Hahn UW Dept of Civil Engineering Climate Impacts Group, JISAO Spring 2002

40. Objectives Of Study Examine the impacts of climate change on the Bull Run Watershed: Bull Run Watershed hydrology temporal and spatial analysis Forecasted M&I demand System performance

41. Portland’s Water Supply System Serves ~ 840,000 people Largest system in state; serving since 1895 42 BG annual demand 115 MGD average daily demand Bull Run Watershed –Dam No.1 (10 BG) –Dam No.2 (7 BG)

42. Bull Run Watershed 107 square miles 2350 feet elev. Rainfall driven 80 in./yr. rainfall 170 BG/year yield Peak Snowpack: –16 inches Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) Snowmelt typically occurs before June

43. Methodology Three sets of models used in the study: Four Global Circulation Models Hydrological Model WaterSupply Model Predicts changes to temperature and precipitation based on altered CO 2 concentration. Uses GCMs to predict climate impacted runoff in watershed. Forecasts system performance based predicted watershed hydrology.

44. Results: Impacts to Climate Average warming trends of ~1.5 O C for the 2020 decade and ~2 O C by 2040. Increased winter precipitation, with less snowfall, but more rain A decrease in late spring and summer precipitation

45. Results: Impacts to Temperature Temperature Change for Climate Change Scenarios 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 OctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep Degrees C 2020 Climate Change 2040 Climate Change

46. Results: Impacts to Snowfall

47. Results: Impacts to Precipitation Precipitation Fraction for Climate Change Scenarios 0.8 0.85 0.9 0.95 1 1.05 1.1 1.15 1.2 OctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep Fraction Precipitation 2020 Climate Change 2040 Climate Change

48. Results: Impacts to Hydrology Average winter streamflows increase by 15% Late spring streamflows decrease by 30% due to spring snowmelt being non-existent 50 percent of the time, April to September flows may decrease by as much as 12.9 BG Less impact to storage (0.1 - 3.6 BG) depending on drawdown timing (avg. 1.3 BG)

49. Results: Impacts to Streamflow

50. Results: Impacts to Streamflow (April to September)

51. Results: Impacts to Demand Water demands shown to be less sensitive to climate change than hydrology 8% increase in 2040 drawdown demand 4% increase in 2040 average annual demand

52. Results: Impacts to Demand

53. Results: Impacts to Drawdown Impacts to drawdown length will vary from year to year:  Historical extreme years like 1987 change little, however, the frequency of these years increases.  Drawdown length for average years may increase by as much as 60 days, as drawdown starts earlier due to early spring recession.

54. Results: Impacts to System On average, the combined effect of climate change on hydrology and demand may increase storage requirements by 2.8 BG. Global warming will push forward the need to provide more sources of supply in the future

55. Impacts to Bull Run Watershed

56. Impacts to Overall System

57. Summary Warming trends of 1.5 O C (up to 3.5 O C) for 2020 and 2.0 O C (up to 4.5 O C) by 2040. Average winter precipitation will increase, late spring runoff will decrease, spring snowmelt may be non-existent. Streamflows in the summer will decrease. The impacts on hydrology may increase storage requirements by 1.3 BG (up to 3.6 BG) Demands will increase by 1.5 BG (up to 2.4 BG) The effect of climate change on hydrology and demand, will increase storage requirements by 2.8 BG (up to 5.4 BG)

58. Conclusions Assessing climate change impacts will be vital in future water supply planning. Climate change is only one factor in long-term planning. Other factors will include: –Future demands (due to growth and/or service area changes) –ESA (fish flow releases) –Conservation Programs, investments & success

59. The Future JWC has a similar study underway now –JWC supplies Hillsboro, Beaverton, Forest Grove and TVWD Results are expected this summer Expect results to be similar to Bull Run Vector Issues

60. Impact of the Emerging Data We have only the summary of the leaked Pentagon Study –We don’t yet have the necessary specifics To evaluate its validity or likelihood To anticipate what impact the loss of the Atlantic termohaline circulation will have on the Pacific Northwest To see how much this throws off the information I have presented today.

61. The Engineering Community Meeting with other engineering working on climate change issues. –Providing information –Trying to educate other engineers –Trying to educate the public at large –Trying to educate elected officials

62. Acknowledgements The slides showing the impacts of temperature change are by Dr. Philip Mote of the JISAO Climates Impacts Group. The slides showing the impacts on water resources are by Alan Hamlet, Andy Wood and Dennis Lettenmaier of the JISAO Climates Impacts Group.

63. Acknowledgement Cont. The slides on the Portland Study are by Richard Palmer, Margaret Hahn of the JISAO Climates Impacts Group. Assisting my understanding of the issues of Portland’s water supply were Joe Dvorak, Dennis Kessler, Dr. Azad Mohammadi of the Portland Water Bureau