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Beltwide Prod. Conf.1/6/2010 Dr. Chris Main Extension Cotton Specialist, University of Tennessee J.C. Banks, T. Barber, R. Boman, D. Boquet, C. Burmester,

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Presentation on theme: "Beltwide Prod. Conf.1/6/2010 Dr. Chris Main Extension Cotton Specialist, University of Tennessee J.C. Banks, T. Barber, R. Boman, D. Boquet, C. Burmester,"— Presentation transcript:

1 Beltwide Prod. Conf.1/6/2010 Dr. Chris Main Extension Cotton Specialist, University of Tennessee J.C. Banks, T. Barber, R. Boman, D. Boquet, C. Burmester, G. Collins, D. Dodds, S. Duncan, K. Edmisten, R. Hutmacher, M. Jones, D. Monks, G. Morgan, R. Norton, G. Stevens, J. Whitaker, D. Wright

2 Beltwide Prod. Conf.1/6/2010 -35%

3 Beltwide Prod. Conf.1/6/2010 Reduced >15% Reduced 1-14% Increased >15% No Change Increased 1-14% Change from 2008 - 2009

4 Beltwide Prod. Conf.1/6/2010

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6 Region by Region Statistics General observations Quotes

7 Beltwide Prod. Conf.1/6/2010 65,000 acres 900 lb/ac 1,000,000 acres 907 lb/ac 115,000 acres 842 lb/ac 375,000 acres 986 lb/ac 82,000 acres 665 lb/ac 255,000 acres 710 lb/ac

8 Beltwide Prod. Conf.1/6/2010 Pigweed still a problem Late planting and poor harvest conditions renders top crop unharvestable in some areas K deficiency and leaf-spot

9 Beltwide Prod. Conf.1/6/2010 Cotton Varieties Planted USDA-AMS Top 6 varieties planted in Georgia during 2008 and 2009 2008 - 940,000 acres2009 - 980,000 acres Variety% acresVariety% acres DP555BR85.85DP555BR82.53 DP515BR1.48PHY370WR2.74 PHY480WR1.37DP0935B2RF2.61 DP444BG1.25DP0949B2RF2.14 PHY370WR1.18ST5458B2RF1.07 DP434R1.02PHY485WRF0.68

10 Beltwide Prod. Conf.1/6/2010 “It rained a lot here, then it didn't, then it rained a lot. Oh yeah, it's still raining.” Dale Monks

11 Beltwide Prod. Conf.1/6/2010 “We had 85,000 acres and that is expected to go up this coming year with higher prices. However, we are going to have to get out this years (2009) crop first.” David Wright

12 Beltwide Prod. Conf.1/6/2010 275,000 acres 949 lb/ac 295,000 acres 758 lb/ac 300,000 acres 891 lb/ac 230,000 acres 704 lb/ac 520,000 acres 826 lb/ac

13 Beltwide Prod. Conf.1/6/2010 Wet spring, late planted, reduced acres Cooler and wetter than average summer Reduced heat unit accumulation Extraordinary crop potential in September Rain, rain go away…. (9/12-11/04) Earliness penalty, boll rot and hard lock Late planting penalty, immature bolls Tom Barber, Gene Stevens, Darrin Dodds,

14 Beltwide Prod. Conf.1/6/2010 May 22, 2009

15 Beltwide Prod. Conf.1/6/2010

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22 Better than average crop in September Est. 1000 lb/ac, actual 700 lb/ac $81,000,000 in losses (wet harvest), underestimated 230,000 ac is 23% of high in mid- 1990’s Only 30 gins open in 2009 Don Boquet

23 Beltwide Prod. Conf.1/6/2010 31,400acres 936 lb/ac 5,000,000 acres 650 lb/ac 200,000 acres 837 lb/ac 36,000 acres 720 lb/ac

24 Beltwide Prod. Conf.1/6/2010 “Strong summer, but a weak finish” J.C. Banks Planted late (dry winter) Timely summer rains, lacked rain during August in Southern areas Immature bolls from cooler wetter fall (dry land and irrigated) Reduced fiber quality from weather

25 Beltwide Prod. Conf.1/6/2010 Similar to Oklahoma “Cool September and early freezes in some areas have mic values declining and bark contamination trending up.” Randy Boman

26 Beltwide Prod. Conf.1/6/2010 Dryland – Plains Generally Spotty Light Rains Across Most Dryland Areas

27 Beltwide Prod. Conf.1/6/2010 Center Pivot Irrigation - Plains

28 Beltwide Prod. Conf.1/6/2010 “Not bad for cotton that should not be here.” - R. Boman

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30 lack of precipitation for establishment and throughout the growing season; volunteer cotton management in the corn/cotton or sorghum/cotton rotations; harvest challenges due to prolonged wet weather at harvest time. Gaylon Morgan

31 Beltwide Prod. Conf.1/6/2010 http://drought.unl.edu/DM/MONITOR.html U.S. Drought Monitor

32 Beltwide Prod. Conf.1/6/2010

33 TEXAS UPLAND COTTON DISTRICT ESTIMATES, 2008 AND 2009 1/ Districts Planted AcresHarvested AcresYield Per AcreProduction 20082009200820092008200920082009 1,000 acres Pounds1,000 bales N. High Pl.616.4595.0554.2505.0864.0998.0997.31,050.0 S. High Pl.2,648.52,685.01,350.12,025.0683.0676.01,920.62,850.0 N. Low Pl.348.5325.0247.8280.0526.0531.0271.7310.0 S. Low Pl.473.8505.0416.6450.0464.0373.0402.9350.0 Blacklands89.760.089.159.0491.0488.091.160.0 E. Plateau178.4175.0122.0160.0605.0405.0153.8135.0 S. Central61.850.052.730.0640.0480.070.330.0 Coastal Bend276.3340.0221.320.0563.0480.0259.420.0 Upper Coast119.490.0117.585.0696.0452.0170.380.0 Lower Valley97.875.021.430.0413.0640.018.440.0 Other districts89.4100.057.356.0789.0643.094.275.0 STATE5,000.0 3,250.03,700.0657.0649.04,450.05,000.0 1 / Preliminary, December, 2009.

34 Beltwide Prod. Conf.1/6/2010 70,000 acres 1714 lb/ac 140,000 acres 1450 lb/ac PIMA 130,000 acres 1247 lb/ac

35 Beltwide Prod. Conf.1/6/2010 Intermittent weather patterns. Excellent planting conditions for majority of crop Cooler than average June. Higher incidence of verticillium wilt particularly in the low desert Heat returned with a vengeance (July and August) much warmer and drier than average Higher than average yields and good quality

36 Beltwide Prod. Conf.1/6/2010 Nearing end of Pink Bollworm Eradication Program. Upland Cotton >95% Bt Cotton (>70% Bollgard II) Forage and dairy industry experiencing large reduction in forage crop plantings and intentions for 2010 Likely to shift back to cotton for 2010. As much as 25% increase in cotton acreage for 2010 Randy Norton

37 Beltwide Prod. Conf.1/6/2010 Water issues continue Both Pima (-19%) and upland (-40%) acres declined 2009 Increase in acres expected 2010 Lower processing tomato prices More Pima acreage due to RRFlex offering

38 Beltwide Prod. Conf.1/6/2010

39 Optimism for increased acres Strengthening cotton prices Increasing world demand World production lower in 2009 Lower competing commodity prices Corn, soybean and wheat Forages in Arizona Tomatoes in California

40 Beltwide Prod. Conf.1/6/2010


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