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Simulation and Projection of Heat Waves in Present and Future Climates Lau Ngar-Cheung, Gabriel.

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Presentation on theme: "Simulation and Projection of Heat Waves in Present and Future Climates Lau Ngar-Cheung, Gabriel."— Presentation transcript:

1 Simulation and Projection of Heat Waves in Present and Future Climates Lau Ngar-Cheung, Gabriel

2 HiRAM_HCM3CFSR

3 ≥ 3 days duration Time 90 th Percentile 75 th Percentile Daily Maximum Surface Air Temperature Identification of a Heat Wave Event Average Temperature ≥ 90 th Percentile value

4 Circulation and Precipitation Patterns Accompanying Heat Waves in Region 1 mm d -1

5 Circulation and Precipitation Patterns Accompanying Heat Waves in Region 2 mm d -1

6 Circulation and Precipitation Patterns Accompanying Heat Waves in Region 3 mm d -1

7 Surface Air Temperature Change 2086-2095 minus 1979-2008 RCP 4.5RCP 8.5 oCoC

8 RCP 4.5RCP 8.5 Observation Model 1979- 2008 Model 2086-2095 Model Ratio: 2086-2095 vs 1979-2008 Model 2086-2095 Model Ratio: 2086-2095 vs 1979-2008 Duration (days)8.412.317.51.426.62.2 Number of Events per year 1.61.43.22.33.62.6 Number of Heat Wave days per year 13.417.055.43.395.95.6 Heat Waves in Region 2

9 Duration# Events/yr# Heat wave days/yr Region 11.92.03.8 Region 21.42.33.3 Region 32.12.34.8 RCP 4.5 Model Projections Ratio: 2086-2095 vs 1979-2008 Duration# Events/yr# Heat wave days/yr Region 12.72.46.5 Region 22.22.65.7 Region 33.02.47.1 RCP 8.5

10 2086-2095 Present PDF HiRAM_HCM3 Region 1 Region 2 Region 3

11

12 # HEAT WAVE DAYS HiRAM 1979-2008 HiRAM 2086-2095 vs 1979-2008 CFSR Days/yr

13 Midwest Heat Waves Model Observations Surface Temperature Precipitation °C mm/dy

14 Duration# Events/yr# Heat wave days/yr Midwest1.52.74.0 Northern Plains1.33.84.8 Pacific Northwest1.32.43.0 SE Canada1.22.52.9 Texas-Oklahoma1.82.64.5 Mid-Atlantic1.42.73.8 California1.92.34.3 Gulf Coast1.23.24.0 Southwest2.22.96.4 Wyoming/Montana/ Idaho 2.22.65.7 Model Projections Ratio: 2041-2070 vs 1971-2000

15 Rotated EOF Tmax

16 European Heat Waves Mode 1 Mode 2 Surface Temperature Precipitation mm day -1 oCoC

17 Duration# Events/yr# Heat wave days/yr Western Russia1.42.23.0 Eastern Europe2.03.16.3 Western Europe1.64.57.1 RCP 4.5 Model Projections Ratio: 2086-2095 vs 1979-2008

18 Thank You

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