1. World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water EXPECTED RESULT 1 ENHANCED CAPABILITIES OF MEMBERS TO PRODUCE BETTER WEATHER FORECASTS AND WARNINGS Strategic Thrust: Science and Technology Development and Implementation Agenda Item 4.1 XV-RA V/Doc. 4.1 www.wmo.int WMO

2. XV-RA V/Doc. 4.1 WMO Issues to be discussed: Improved quality, greater availability and more effective use of Numerical Weather Prediction products, including those of Ensemble Prediction Systems, in forecasting and warning services Increasing the number of new and advanced scientific tools in operational forecasting especially in warnings of hazards, for example through technology transfer and transition from research to operational forecasting Research and development activities leading to the next generation of prediction systems through advanced understanding and improved predicting skill for reduced detrimental effects of severe and other high-impact weather events on society Action: The Association is invited to adopt the draft texts in document 4.1 for inclusion in the general summary of XV-RA V

3. Global Data-Processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS) (Paragraphs 4.1.1 – 4.1.12) WMO Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) Expand the Severe Weather Forecasting and Disaster risk reduction Demonstration Project (SWFDDP) to other Members in its full demonstration phase planned to commence in 1 November 2010 Propose a western window to the RA V – SWFDP Status of the GDPFS WMC Melbourne designated as a Global Producing Centre (GPC) for Seasonal to Inter- annual Forecasts Members to continue to provide status information on their NWP forecasting systems to the annual WMO Technical Progress Report on GDPFS including NWP Research GDPFS – Long-Range Forecasting Members to continue to contribute to the joint CBS-CCl efforts to ensure successful implementation and operation of Regional Climate Centres (RCCs)

4. Aeronautical Meteorology – aviation forecasting (Paragraphs 4.1.13 – 4.1.14) WMO Concept of a New Terminal Weather Forecast Based on existing projects in a number of Members – aimed to harmonize these efforts and provide a standardized user interface Close collaboration with relevant study groups of ICAO and user representatives from the Air Traffic Management (ATM) and airline communities ICAO Meteorological Warnings Study Group to establish a trial for the provision of advisories prepared by lead States Advisory messages will support the issuance of SIGMET for convection, turbulence and icing (similar to those on volcanic ash and tropical cyclones provided by the relevant VAAC and TCAC, respectively) Members to ensure full cooperation with relevant bodies in the Region, in operating the tests planned to take place in 2011

5. Marine Meteorological Forecasting (Paragraphs 4.1.15 – 4.1.20) WMO Marine Meteorological Monitoring, Forecasting and Warning Services Members to improve the collection and dissemination through the GTS of wave, sea level and ocean surface meteorological observations to support the assessment of marine-related hazards via numerical modelling and verification Members to participate in and make maximum use of the wave forecast verification scheme and the wave EPS products Coastal Inundation Forecasting Support the JCOMM/CHy project development for building improved risk assessment and operational forecasts and warnings capacity for coastal inundation GOOS Regional Alliances (GRAs) Members to strengthen relationships with GRAs to participate in and benefit from ocean projects of relevance to NMHSs

6. Tropical Cyclone Forecasting (Paragraphs 4.1.21 – 4.1.28) WMO Tropical Cyclone Forecasting RSMCs and NMHSs to further exploit the use of ensemble prediction techniques in tropical cyclone forecasting Propose development of projects such as the NW Pacific Tropical Cyclones Ensemble Forecast Project and the Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project in other areas of the region Support for improving and enhancing tropical cyclone forecasting and warning capabilities of the RSMC Nadi RA V Tropical Cyclone Committee (TCC) for the South Pacific and South-east Indian Ocean continue to support the implementation of the SWFDDP and the Storm Surge Watch Scheme (SSWS) Make an e-version of the Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting available on the WMO Web site Approve amendments to the Tropical Cyclone Operational Plan and the updates of the Coordinated Technical Plan recommended by the RA V - TCC

7. Transition from Research and Development to Operations and Next Generation Systems for Weather Forecasting (Paragraphs 4.1.29 – 4.1.38) WMO Research Projects Support the incorporation of the GIFS-TIGGE products for tropical cyclones and possible heavy rainfall into the SWFDDP Members impacted by dust events to participate in the WMO Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System (SDS-WAS) and develop similar capacity for other aerosols (e.g., pollen, smoke and volcanic ash) Members to participate in the Year of Tropical Convection research project Members with seasonal tropical cyclone forecast capabilities to actively participate in the development of a common set of metrics to evaluate the skill of seasonal tropical cyclone forecasts by contributing with their forecast products to the web site (http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/tmr/SeasonalFcst.html )http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/tmr/SeasonalFcst.html Members to participate in and support the THORPEX regional initiatives through contributions to the THORPEX Trust Fund Support the development of plans for a Warning Information System which will include a GIFS-TIGGE/TIGGE-LAM evaluation component and applications derived from existing efforts in the Region