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Risk Analysis and Technical Analysis Tanveer Singh Chandok (Director of Mentorship)
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What we have done so far GTSF Investments Committee2 Efficient Market Hypothesis Investing Styles (IC) Time Value of Money Financial Statement Analysis Valuation and important terms Important Ratios Fundamental Analysis (Macro/Micro) Intro to Fixed Income
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A quick review GTSF Investments Committee3 The 3 main styles of investing Value Growth Momentum What is the difference between going long and short? How do we “short” a stock? Different levels of market cap Large Mid Small What does “liquidity” mean and why is it so important?
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What we’re doing today GTSF Investments Committee4 We use statistics to measure risk Some basic concepts Properties of data sets Mean – “average” Median - “middle number” Mode – “occurs most often” 0, 0, 2, 4, 6, 8, 10 Standard Deviations Normal Distributions
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What is “Risk”? GTSF Investments Committee5 Uncertainty Risk What are we uncertain about? Generally: The more uncertain the cashflows of a particular investment are the higher the risk The higher the risk, the higher the required interest rate Thus: Higher Risk = Higher Rate of Return Risk – return trade-off
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Terms GTSF Investments Committee6 “Rate of Return” “Sample” = our dataset Sample mean returns Sample variance of returns
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More terms GTSF Investments Committee7 Sample covariance Standard Deviation Square root of variance = σ Sample correlation
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Correlation Patterns GTSF Investments Committee8
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Correlation Patterns GTSF Investments Committee9
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Normal or “Gaussian” Distributions GTSF Investments Committee10
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Compare to uniform distribution GTSF Investments Committee11
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Characteristics of Probability Distributions GTSF Investments Committee12 Mean Most likely value – “Expected value” Variance or Standard Deviation Volatility – “Degree of deviation from the mean value” Skewness Degree of asymmetry in distribution Kurtosis Degree of fatness in tail area
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Standard Deviation GTSF Investments Committee13 Defined by the following equation: Step 1: Find the mean of the dataset Step 2: Subtract the mean from each value Step 3: Square the values from Step 2 Step 4: Add up all the values from Step 3 Step 5: Divide the value from Step 4 by (n-1) Step 6: Take the square root of the value from Step 5
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Standard Deviation as a measure of risk GTSF Investments Committee14 Std. Dev. tells us what the normal distribution probability function looks like Pros Easy to calculate and implement If return distribution is symmetric, the upside risk is the same as downside risk, and therefore standard deviation is a good measure of downside risk If returns are normally distributed, standard deviation would be adequate in characterizing the risk Upside risk vs. Downside risk
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Standard Deviation as a measure of risk GTSF Investments Committee15 Cons Investors are concerned about downside risk Standard deviation includes both the above-average returns (upside risk) and the below-average returns (downside risk) If returns are skewed, standard deviation is not the only relevant measure of risk Holding expected return and standard deviation constant, investor would prefer positive skewed distribution
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Risk Practice Problems GTSF Investments Committee16 You are thinking about investing in 2 companies. One of them (let’s call it ABC) has the following monthly returns 4% 2% 3% 1% -8% What is this stocks average return and standard deviation?
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Risk Practice Problems GTSF Investments Committee17 The next company (DEF) has the following returns; 1% 2% 1% 3% 2% What is this stocks average return and standard deviation? Which stock would you most likely invest in? What other factors should influence your decision?
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More Risk! GTSF Investments Committee18 What about a stock’s sensitivity to the market? When the broader market is down, individual company stocks are often down, why is that? Traders use stocks as a way to express their views on the market, often movements in stocks are not due to company news but market news
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Beta GTSF Investments Committee19 The most common way to see how a stock moves in relation to the broader market (represented by the S&P 500) Beta (or market risk) is a measure of a securities relative volatility as compared to the broader market Beta > 1 means the stock is more volatile than the market Beta < 1 means the stock is less volatile than the market
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Beta GTSF Investments Committee20
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Beta Practice GTSF Investments Committee21 Consider the following security beta’s; a. 1.3 b. 1.4 c..6 d. 1.0 e..35 f. 1.9 Which stock will move the most in relation to the market? Which one will move the least?
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Using Beta to determine return GTSF Investments Committee22 We previously calculated expected return by taking the average of past returns With Beta we know how a security compares to the market return Using this information we can calculate the E(r) of a security without knowing its previous returns E(r) = Risk Free Rate + Beta (Market Risk Premium) Market risk premium = Market return – Risk Free Rate
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CAPM GTSF Investments Committee23 The use of Beta, Market Return and the Risk Free Rate to determine expected return is called the Capital Asset Pricing Model or CAPM What do you think we use for the risk free rate? If a stock’s beta is 1.2 and the market has returned 10% on average while the risk free is 2% what is the stock’s expected return?
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GTSF Investments Committee24
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Alpha GTSF Investments Committee25 If everything perfectly followed CAPM then we would be able to very accurately predict what a given stock would return If this was true then we would not need actively managed funds to gain outsized returns “The abnormal rate of return on a security or portfolio in excess of what would be predicted by an equilibrium model like the capital asset pricing model (CAPM)” Alpha represents a greater return for lower risk
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Risk/Return Payoff GTSF Investments Committee26 Which portfolio manager did a better job last year and why? Bill - 25% return Carl - 20% return What does the information above NOT tell us about the returns of the portfolios in question?
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The Risk Return Payoff GTSF Investments Committee27 ● RISK! ● We haven’t accounted for the risk each manager took so we don’t know if they got those returns by picking smart investments or simply taking a lot of risk
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Risk Adjusted Returns GTSF Investments Committee28 ● Let’s take another look at those returns ● Bill – (25% return, stdev of 20%) ● Carl – (20% return, stdev of 25%)
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What does the Sharpe Ratio Tell Us? GTSF Investments Committee29 ● A sharpe ratio tells us how much return the portfolio gets for every “unit” of risk it takes ● A sharpe ratio of > 1 means for every unit of risk we get more than 1 unit of return ● A sharpe ratio of > 2 means that we are getting double the return for every unit of risk we take
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Where does “risk” come from? GTSF Investments Committee30 ● Beta measures risk compared to markets ● Alpha measures risk of individual assets in terms of excess return ● If we hold multiple securities at the same time can we increase/decrease our risk? ● Correlation - the degree to which two things move together ● If we have a portfolio of highly correlated stocks then our entire portfolio will rise and fall at the same time
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Correlation GTSF Investments Committee31 A measure of how closely two things move together
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Why We Care About Correlation GTSF Investments Committee32
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Diversification GTSF Investments Committee33 ● We can increase our portfolio’s risk/return relationship by diversifying ● If we hold non-correlated assets then they will move separately eliminating moves cause by correlations ● Say you have a portfolio of only Tech stocks (GOOG, APPL, MSFT) how would you diversify your holdings so a drop in the tech sector wouldn’t bankrupt you?
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Diversification GTSF Investments Committee34
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Technical Analysis GTSF Investments Committee35 Live demo
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Quiz Time! What is Beta? 1.Security Risk 2.Market Risk 3.Treasury Risk 4.Interest Rate Risk
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Quiz Time! What is Beta? 1.Security Risk 2.Market Risk 3.Treasury Risk 4.Interest Rate Risk
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Quiz Time! How many low correlation stocks do we need to achieve the diversification benefit 1.5 2.20 3.30 4.33
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Quiz Time! How many low correlation stocks do we need to achieve the diversification benefit 1.5 2.20 3.30 4.33
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Quiz Time! What is NOT a component of CAPM 1.Market Risk 2.Risk Free Rate 3.Beta 4.Market Return
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Quiz Time! What is NOT a component of CAPM 1.Market Risk 2.Risk Free Rate 3.Beta 4.Market Return
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