1. Southern Lakes Wildfire Threat Assessment Model November 2014

2. Wildfire Threat Assessment Model?  Determine the potential impact of fires on a community.  Account for the effect of management actions on that threat.  Identify high risk landscape units.  Present options to reduce the probability of large, intense wildfires.  Assist in pre-suppression planning.  Help create informative, educational products for mitigation programs.

3. Wildfire Threat Assessment Model McGregor Model Forest

4. Model Inputs 1.Risk of Ignition  lightning-caused fire occurrence  human-caused fire occurrence 2.Values at Risk  population density  Other infrastructure 3.Suppression Capability  driving time from IA base  Distance from air tanker base  Distance from road  Steepness of slope 4.Fire Behaviour Potential  Head fire intensity  Rate of spread  Crown fraction burned (Fuel Type) 1.Risk of Ignition  lightning-caused fire occurrence  human-caused fire occurrence 2.Values at Risk  population density  Other infrastructure 3.Suppression Capability  driving time from IA base  Distance from air tanker base  Distance from road  Steepness of slope 4.Fire Behaviour Potential  Head fire intensity  Rate of spread  Crown fraction burned

5. Study Area Greater Whitehorse – Southern Lakes 4800 km 2 or 480,000 ha Includes: Deep Creek Takhini River Fish Lake Lorne Mtn/Goldenhorn Annie Lake Road Carcross Tagish subdn’s Jakes Corner Marsh Lake subdn’s

6. Risk of Ignition Ignition patterns and densities Not enough lightning?

7. FBP Fuels

8. FBP Fuels (Fire behaviour potential) proxy for Head Fire Intensity

9. Elevation Above 1400m = non-fuel Above 1250m = D1/D2 (shrub)

10. Elevation 1200m mask

11. Suppression Capability Input Primary and secondary roads Tertiary 2 wheel drive Proximity to roads

12. Driving time from attack base EMS response model 3 minutes and 9 minutes Suppression Capability input Using Network Analysis

13. Suppression Capability input Distance from air attack base in kilometres Air Attack Response Time

14. Slope Suppression Capability input Flat = green Steep = red

15. Slope – detail Grey Mountain Flat = green Steep = red

16. Population density as a proxy for Values at Risk Lot parcels used to determine population Population Density

17. Higher population density= more values at risk

18. Ground Response Further away from Hanger D = more risk RoadClassSpeedLimit (km/h) Expressway / Highway90 Arterial70 Alleyway / Lane20 All Others50 Hanger D

19. Ground Response Further away from Hanger D = more risk

20. Ground Response – can we combine?

21. Other Inputs Weather: Percentile scenarios based upon historical data Values at Risk: Critical Infrastructure and other significant values Burn P-3 as the Fire Behaviour Potential input

22. Key Components of Wildfire Risk Assessment Wildfire Risk (LOC) Wildfire Risk (LOC) Fire Effects Index Probability of Fire Occurrence Fire Behaviour Fire Suppression Effectiveness Values Impacted Rating Suppression Difficulty Rating Fire Occurrence Areas Surface Fuels Topography Canopy Closure Historic Fire Sizes Historic Protection Organization Transportation and Infrastructure Wildland Urban Interface Production Forests Fuel Type Topography Historic Fire Locations